The second elimination race of the Cup playoffs is this weekend at the Roval and it happens to also be the second road course of the season as well. Even with as crazy as Talladega was last weekend and its 13 cautions, the Roval may actually be the biggest wild card race of the playoffs yet.

In case you need a refresher, the Roval is the hybrid road course that combines the Charlotte Oval with the infield Road Course and turns it into a 17-turn challenge that has provided two very good races the last two years and a huge challenge to even the best road course racers in the field. This is also one of the longer road courses as well and road races which also provides its own challenge by itself. This layout gets tougher when there is no practice held before the race as the drivers are still trying to figure out this layout for the most part.

Programming Notes: This week the track breakdown will be a bit different in terms of the data in it as the last four races will be the last four road courses which includes the two Roval races, the Daytona Road Course, and Watkins Glen from last August which are the most comparable to the Charlotte Roval. The last eight races are the last eight road course races overall which is two Roval races, Daytona Road Course, three Watkins Glen races, and two Sonoma races. The race is on Sunday afternoon and there is a chance of rain during the race. The teams will have rain tires to use but if they lose the track and it gets dark out, they’d move the race to Monday since there aren’t enough lights on the infield to race in the dark like they could at the Oval.

Strategy Notes: Like with other road courses, laps led is something to go after in both formats even though there aren’t a lot but drivers that start up near the front can lead a good chunk of laps which counts them as a dominator based on percentage led. A key stat will be the top-15 rate this week along with driver rating as they will tell you how well a driver can deal with road courses in general and how well they hold their spots.

Core Drivers By Tier

Tier 1 - Chase Elliott

  • Is there a better road racer out there right now?

  • He has won half of the last eight road races and won this race last year.

  • Elliott leads the field in driver rating, top-15 rate, dominator points, and average finish in the last four road races.

Tier 2 - Michael McDowell

  • McDowell has a 6.3 average finish in the last four road races and two top-18s at the Roval.

  • He’s starting P30 and so has built in PD upside with the way he moves up through the field.

  • In the last eight road races, McDowell has six top-20s

Tier 3 - Chris Buescher

  • Buescher has an average finish of 13.3 in the last four road races including a top-five.

  • His 72.1 average driver rating is the best in that tier over the last four races

  • In the last eight races he’s posted eight top-20s with four top-15s.

Contrarian Play - Alex Bowman

  • Bowman has two top-five finishes here in the two races

  • He’s not known as one of the better road racers but the results with seven top-15s in seven races speak otherwise.

  • He’s motivated by the moved to the 48-car for next year and could snag laps led starting near the front.

Fade - Kyle Busch

  • His attitude is clearly in the dumps right now and he reiterated after the ‘Dega race that he will exit after this round.

  • He’s finished in the 30s the last two Rovals (suspension and crash) and crashed out at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year.

  • Busch hasn’t been himself all year and missing the setup here is huge as there are far few chances to fix it.

Last Four Road Races

Tier 1

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Ryan BlaneyPenske415.313.111.342100
Chase ElliottHendrick47.85.22.35.53100
Martin Truex JrJGR477.36.50.52110
Brad KeselowskiPenske415.811.814.51.31110
Kevin HarvickSHR410.39.791.31201
Denny HamlinJGR415.81396.82011
Joey LoganoPenske41115.413-20300

 

  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Ryan Blaney44.01.01.568.3%23.388.993.3
Chase Elliott437.321.319.992.5%26.8132.293.3
Martin Truex Jr44.314.38.285.9%23.5113.893.3
Brad Keselowski48.02.53.372.9%19.892.191.8
Kevin Harvick48.53.53.977.0%14.399.593.3
Denny Hamlin44.03.32.663.7%17.591.593.3
Joey Logano41.31.00.852.3%12.878.693.3

Tier 2

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Kyle BuschJGR49.516.529.3-19.80010
Jimmie JohnsonHendrick47.310.410-2.71201
Alex BowmanHendrick412.317.984.32020
Clint BowyerSHR49.311.48.312101
William ByronHendrick49.313.617.3-80200
Kurt BuschGanassi49.812.612.3-2.51111
Erik JonesJGR415.320.321.3-61010
Michael McDowellFront Row420.314.9146.30112
Matt DiBenedettoWood Bros.418.816.711.37.50130
Aric AlmirolaSHR412.815.217.3-4.50021

 

  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Kyle Busch40.32.31.258.3%18.377.486.3
Jimmie Johnson40.01.00.574.6%26.396.893.3
Alex Bowman40.01.80.945.2%16.383.793.3
Clint Bowyer40.52.51.472.8%27.094.293.3
William Byron45.83.83.364.5%24.391.491.8
Kurt Busch41.82.51.775.2%21.087.493.3
Erik Jones40.00.00.049.1%15.071.671.5
Michael McDowell40.00.00.055.9%18.075.993.3
Matt DiBenedetto40.00.00.051.4%18.877.693.3
Aric Almirola40.00.00.061.0%19.080.193.3

Tier 3

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Ricky Stenhouse JrJTG420.318.521.3-10012
Christopher BellLFR11515.421-60000
Austin DillonRCR327.325.331-3.70000
Cole CusterSHR126222240000
Chris BuescherRoush414.817.513.31.51012
Bubba WallacePetty42725.228.3-1.30000
Ryan NewmanRoush42322.621.81.20011
Matt KensethGanassi11622.226-100000
John H. NemechekFront Row12827.135-70000
Ty DillonGermain426.322.921.84.50011
James DavisonRick Ware13831.33080000

 

  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Ricky Stenhouse Jr40.50.30.332.3%12.069.791
Christopher Bell10.01.00.561.5%24.071.565
Austin Dillon30.00.30.213.8%8.354.487
Cole Custer10.01.00.515.4%12.070.565
Chris Buescher40.00.00.046.2%15.072.193
Bubba Wallace40.00.50.38.5%5.548.892
Ryan Newman40.00.00.018.2%8.057.293
Matt Kenseth10.00.00.016.9%5.047.265
John H. Nemechek10.00.00.04.6%3.035.762
Ty Dillon40.00.00.012.6%5.358.393
James Davison10.01.00.50.0%1.042.565

Tier 4

   Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
DriverTeam#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Daniel SuarezGaunt419.819.924.8-50001
Corey LajoieGo Fas329.329.731-1.70000
Ryan PreeceJTG321.721.426.7-50000
JJ YeleySpire33332.630.32.70000
Gray GauldingRick Ware         
Timmy HillMBM336.734.332.34.40000
Joey GasePWR         
Brennan PoolePremium13331.52850000
Quin HouffStarCom13535.53320000

 

  LLFLDominatorTop-15QPAvg.LC
Driver#/Race/RacePts./ RaceRate/RaceRating/Race
Daniel Suarez40.00.00.031.3%12.364.293
Corey Lajoie30.00.00.04.4%4.743.086
Ryan Preece30.00.00.015.9%11.361.282
JJ Yeley30.00.00.00.8%0.736.294
Gray Gaulding   0.0    
Timmy Hill30.00.30.20.0%0.335.581
Joey Gase   0.0    
Brennan Poole10.00.00.01.5%0.036.365
Quin Houff10.02.01.00.0%0.028.064

Top-20 Drivers Over Last Eight Road Races

  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Martin Truex Jr85.65.23.91.76110
Chase Elliott85.66.88-2.45110
Denny Hamlin812.812.18.54.34121
Clint Bowyer812.5127.94.64121
Kevin Harvick813.110.58.94.22402
Kyle Busch87.111.916.8-9.73110
Ryan Blaney813.512.512.80.73210
Kurt Busch816.512.310.46.11421
Erik Jones81615.814.41.62310
Alex Bowman714.316.39.94.42140
  Avg.Run.Avg.Pos.    
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20
Jimmie Johnson88.811.615.3-6.51221
Brad Keselowski81512.315.1-0.11132
William Byron7913.717.3-8.30301
Daniel Suarez815.815.717.3-1.52012
Matt DiBenedetto823.620.115.97.71131
Chris Buescher816.417.2142.41034
Aric Almirola815.817.916.1-0.30221
Joey Logano89.817.619.4-9.60301
Michael McDowell817.816.916.51.30123
Matt Kenseth31917.11901000

 

  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Martin Truex Jr820.817.013.794.1126.2
Chase Elliott826.615.314.390.4123.1
Denny Hamlin83.32.62.194.193.7
Clint Bowyer80.33.51.894.193
Kevin Harvick88.67.55.994.198.3
Kyle Busch87.08.86.290.697
Ryan Blaney82.31.11.193.488.4
Kurt Busch81.01.51.094.188.5
Erik Jones80.10.50.383.383
Alex Bowman70.01.00.594.781.9
  LLFLDominatorLCAvg.
Driver#/Race/RacePts/ Race/RaceRating
Jimmie Johnson80.11.00.594.087.2
Brad Keselowski86.52.52.993.488
William Byron76.33.33.293.786.5
Daniel Suarez81.80.40.794.078.9
Matt DiBenedetto80.00.40.292.368.2
Chris Buescher80.00.10.194.171.3
Aric Almirola80.00.40.294.172.2
Joey Logano80.62.61.583.070.9
Michael McDowell80.00.60.394.070.9
Matt Kenseth30.00.30.281.370.9

Momentum

This shows the last five races of the season and the driver’s stats so we can see who is coming in hot and who’s coming in cold.

Drivers

Tier 1

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Ryan Blaney51315.717.6-4.601112.212.87.079.2
Chase Elliott56.45.815.2-8.8110150.629.427.4106.9
Martin Truex Jr57.49.715-7.6200040.423.822.099.7
Brad Keselowski56.812.115.4-8.6102156.414.221.296.4
Kevin Harvick53.88.67.8-4220160.232.431.3108.5
Denny Hamlin55.411.710-4.6202042.422.822.095.5
Joey Logano569.611.4-5.4202018.212.811.0106.7

Tier 2

 

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Kyle Busch57.6109.6-2130033.819.418.296.1
Jimmie Johnson519.81821.2-1.400120.28.24.275.0
Alex Bowman55.610.510-4.412111.213.47.098.4
Clint Bowyer59.212.914.2-5031006.43.286.5
William Byron514.415.818.6-4.220002.663.778.0
Kurt Busch59.612.913.8-4.211209.8128.591.6
Erik Jones519.213.47.811.431002.69.45.489.4
Michael McDowell521.223.321.6-0.401010.22.21.255.0
Matt DiBenedetto51514.616-11002574.878.2
Aric Almirola591515.2-6.2120123.62.385.2

 

Tier 3

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Ricky Stenhouse Jr526.427.127.6-1.20002073.551.6
Christopher Bell522.622.828-5.400100.25.83.057.5
Austin Dillon57.813.212.4-4.620201115.210.488.0
Cole Custer515.817.419.2-3.4002102.41.274.8
Chris Buescher519.817.814.65.2030055.23.974.2
Bubba Wallace524.821.927.6-2.80000242.560.9
Ryan Newman524.621.516.68102003.41.761.6
Matt Kenseth520.816.615.65.2002303.41.768.9
John H. Nemechek525.622.222.82.80102042.057.6
Ty Dillon526.422.820.46.0100100.60.358.0
James Davison436.835.635.31.5000000.80.429.5

Tier 4

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LLFLDominatorAvg.
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20/Race/RacePts./RaceRating
Daniel Suarez52927.628.60.4000001.20.650.3
Corey Lajoie530.228.330.4-0.20000021.043.5
Ryan Preece525.420.11510.4020301.80.966.9
JJ Yeley434.532.931.82.70000000.035.5
Gray Gaulding233.531.4294.50000000.040.7
Timmy Hill536.233.932.43.800100.21.60.934.2
Joey Gase536.234.230.260001010.532.0
Brennan Poole429.828.6254.801000.31.50.844.9
Quin Houff532.631.527.84.8001000.20.138.7

Team

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos.    LapsFast
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.1-56-1011-1516-20LedLaps
Chip Ganassi Racing1015.214.814.70.5114398154
Front Row Motorsports1023.422.822.21.20203262
Hendrick Motorsports2011.612.516.3-4.7432410921140
Joe Gibbs Racing209.911.210.6-0.7842023841508
JTG Daugherty Racing1025.923.621.34.60205088
Richard Childress Racing1014.615.414.50.13130114240
Roush Fenway Racing1022.219.715.66.613205086
Stewart-Haas Racing209.513.514.1-4.737331244896
Team Penske158.612.514.8-6.231521152597

Finish Position Ranges By Starting Spot Ranges

StartFinish Ranges
Range1-56-1011-1516-2020+
1-587113
6-1066431
11-1534247
16-2022646
21-25101513
26-30015212
31-35001118
36-40000016
Total2020202076

Weekly Rankings

Race Hist, Track Hist, Type Hist are all ranked on average finish position over the last four races at the track, five races this season, eight races at this track, and similar races respectively. The Avg. Rating and Top-15 % columns are ranked on those categories in the last four races at this track. The L8 PD column ranks the position differential over the last eight races from best (most positive) to worst (most negative).

Tier 1

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Ryan Blaney$10,900$12,0008217115189
Chase Elliott$10,600$13,5001142235314
Martin Truex Jr$10,300$13,20021214622128
Brad Keselowski$10,100$11,60014161772061129
Kevin Harvick$9,900$13,000514394520
Denny Hamlin$9,700$12,50054956343
Joey Logano$9,300$11,800117154257215

Tier 2

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Kyle Busch$9,500$10,00029329935101626
Jimmie Johnson$9,100$10,6007251651861218
Alex Bowman$9,000$11,0003462113610
Clint Bowyer$8,800$11,30041053105217
William Byron$8,600$9,70015222282891724
Kurt Busch$8,400$10,300109116147711
Erik Jones$8,200$8,00019130102241027
Michael McDowell$8,100$9,00013261041321515
Matt DiBenedetto$7,900$9,30081831111321
Aric Almirola$7,800$9,5001514137198142

Tier 3

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,700$6,6001929245245226
Christopher Bell$7,500$7,600183227 2982422
Austin Dillon$7,200$6,4003282563392722
Cole Custer$7,100$7,300232327 1672535
Chris Buescher$6,900$7,00012111938297
Bubba Wallace$6,500$5,50028292342762911
Ryan Newman$6,400$6,80021198253234
Matt Kenseth$6,200$6,000251727 34102034
John H. Nemechek$6,000$4,500362727 3611371
Ty Dillon$5,700$5,00021241171267
James Davison$5,500$5,000304227 1243138

Tier 4

DriverDK$FD $Race HistRecent FormDK L2FD L2DK L5FD L5Track HistType Hist
Daniel Suarez$6,700$4,00024332653021730
Corey Lajoie$5,800$3,50032372023263313
Ryan Preece$5,400$4,50026121833172816
JJ Yeley$5,200$3,00031381212633433
Gray Gaulding$5,100$3,000403427 37 3118
Timmy Hill$4,900$3,00034402142113436
Joey Gase$4,800$3,000403627 37 4032
Brennan Poole$4,600$4,000272827 443025
Quin Houff$4,500$3,000353127 2353637

DFS Value Averages

This replaces the DFS Scoring Averages table that had been here. Instead, we have the DFS Value figures instead. We have taken their points scored over the last two and five races on each site and averaged those out and then divided that average by their salary divided by 1,000.

Tier 1

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Ryan Blaney$10,9004.433.753.48$12,0004.333.654.17
Chase Elliott$10,6005.934.794.29$13,5004.123.274.07
Martin Truex Jr$10,3003.715.114.27$13,2003.163.644.19
Brad Keselowski$10,1003.193.324.47$11,6003.033.144.97
Kevin Harvick$9,9005.284.376.24$13,0003.913.445.03
Denny Hamlin$9,7004.254.535.38$12,5003.393.644.93
Joey Logano$9,3003.662.693.96$11,8003.532.764.53

Tier 2

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Kyle Busch$9,500-0.970.783.58$10,0000.711.885.04
Jimmie Johnson$9,1003.603.473.79$10,6003.933.654.73
Alex Bowman$9,0004.644.283.38$11,0004.473.894.36
Clint Bowyer$8,8005.144.353.73$11,3004.403.734.50
William Byron$8,6002.462.453.54$9,7002.912.944.97
Kurt Busch$8,4004.063.763.74$10,3003.833.624.92
Erik Jones$8,200-1.523.124.20$8,0000.233.746.53
Michael McDowell$8,1004.203.813.56$9,0004.383.935.36
Matt DiBenedetto$7,9005.475.513.93$9,3004.884.835.55
Aric Almirola$7,8003.723.364.20$9,5003.813.525.38

Tier 3

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$7,7001.622.782.83$6,6003.344.265.81
Christopher Bell$7,500 2.333.70$7,600 3.096.08
Austin Dillon$7,2001.281.754.65$6,4002.603.048.07
Cole Custer$7,100 3.733.65$7,300 3.776.35
Chris Buescher$6,9002.904.383.96$7,0004.455.216.92
Bubba Wallace$6,5002.152.493.93$5,5003.884.048.20
Ryan Newman$6,4004.304.533.91$6,8004.844.916.86
Matt Kenseth$6,200 1.293.76$6,000 2.757.75
John H. Nemechek$6,000 0.334.42$4,500 1.9310.24
Ty Dillon$5,7006.054.494.86$5,0007.585.929.32
James Davison$5,500 4.091.88$5,000 4.305.13

Tier 4

 DKDKDKSeas.FDFDFDSeas.
DriverSalaryL2L5AvgSalaryL2L5Avg
Daniel Suarez$6,7000.602.183.68$4,0004.535.9610.92
Corey Lajoie$5,8002.761.774.01$3,5006.974.9112.07
Ryan Preece$5,4002.961.994.00$4,5006.094.259.19
JJ Yeley$5,2003.942.552.91$3,0008.625.9511.83
Gray Gaulding$5,100  3.06$3,000  14.55
Timmy Hill$4,9002.603.303.12$3,0005.736.3210.07
Joey Gase$4,800  2.78$3,000  10.90
Brennan Poole$4,600 4.573.93$4,000 5.509.29
Quin Houff$4,500 3.113.35$3,000 5.1311.65