DFS NASCAR: STP 500 Track Breakdown

Here’s a surprising stat to know heading into this week, Martin Truex Jr.  is the points leader for the season thus far and 46 points ahead of eighth-place Kevin Harvick who has been the talk MENCS to this point. However now the schedule gets out of the speed tracks for a while and goes on a run of short tracks in three of four weeks and Truex has yet to win at a short track to this point in his career.

Martinsville is the host track for this weekend’s race. Known as the Paperclip for it’s narrow footprint and tight, flat, corners, it’s the only track that has been on NASCAR schedule since its inception in 1948. The Clip, in southern Virginia, was the site of a major controversy last year in the Chase when Denny Hamlin wrecked Chase Elliott to keep him from winning the race and locking up a spot in the championship race, but it has also been host to numerous exciting races over the last 50 years. With 500 laps being run on the .526 mile track, laps led can be racked up in massive totals with two driver combining for nearly 80% of the laps led in last April’s race. Since the layout of the track is so short, it makes it very hard to pass for the lead unless bumping is utilized or a mistake on pit road happens.

There is 12-degrees of banking in the turns, though that’s really only out in middle and outer reaches of the turns while the inside of the turn has curbing that several drivers will actually drive over it lap after lap trying to cut some distance off the already short track. The narrow track, bump-and-grind racing style, and fight for track position have combined to produce just eight races since April of 1993 with single-digit number of cautions. That means 42 of the last 50 races at Martinsville have had double-digit numbers of cautions including 14 in this race last year.

A note on this week’s schedule real quick. I will be traveling this weekend for my big money home fantasy baseball league draft. That, combined with the draft happening all day on Saturday when the practices happen this week mean there will be no practice notes this week and the playbook and lineups will be out Saturday evening.

Track Data

Last Four races at Martinsville Speedway

Top-15 Drivers at Martinsville Speedway (Since 2013)

Top-15 Drivers at SImilar Tracks (Since 2015)

Points Changes at STP 500

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

Drivers to watch this week:

Kyle Busch: Fresh off another top-three finish for the third-straight time this season we go to a track that Busch has flat out dominated in the past. In the last four tries at the ‘clip the 18-car has two wins, four top-fives, and 813 laps led, far and away the most in the field. His average finish of 2.3 in that span is the best in the field, but only slightly and his 134.6 driver rating is 14 ratings points better than the next closest driver, not to mention that he nearly had perfect race with a high rating of 148.2 being just 1.8 points off a perfect 150. All of this points to his featuring in this section and his likely selection as a cash game play.

Brad Keselowski: Remember how I said that Kyle’s average finish of 2.3 was just barely better than the second guy on that list? Well Keselowski is that guy. His average finish of 3.0 in the last four races is bolstered by a win and four top-fives of his own. Meanwhile his 224 laps led are a distant second to Busch’s total and he actually has more fastest laps (306) than his laps led. Keselowski also helps in position differential with a 7.3 mark over the last four races. He is $900 cheaper than Busch this week, which should make him easier to fit into multiple lineups.

Jimmie Johnson: Seven-time as he’s known is actually nine-time here. He has nine wins, and nine grandfather clocks, in his career at Martinsville, one of which has come in the last four races and two in the last 10. His 116 laps led are good for fifth in the field behind the two above him in this section along with 189 from Truex Jr. and 143 from his teammate Chase Elliott. The downside is that he is a lot of all or nothing with the win as the only top-five and four top-15s. He did run well at Auto Club last weekend and this weekend the aero of the car won’t be as much of a factor putting him right into the conversation, especially at $9,100.

Austin Dillon: The Daytona 500 winner has disappeared a bit since then, save for a nice showing at Auto Club. In the last four races here, he has the best position differential in the field at 16.7, starting 26.5 and finishing 9.8, which is a big boost to his value right off the bat. It gets better though. Dillon has two top-fives in that span and three top-15s. In the last eight races he’s run here, he has five total top-15s while still keeping his position differential at near 11. As a mid-tier $7,700 this week he offers the second-best value mark of 5.19 fantasy points/$1,000.

Trevor Bayne: Bayne has been flying under the radar so far this season, and for good reason given his 18 points per race. However this week could be a turnaround for him as he is the only driver aside from Dillon to have a double-digit position differential of an even 11 over the last four races. He has a top-10 and two top-15s in that span here. In this race last year he posted a 37.5-point day which would more than double his season average to this point, and make his $6,000 price tag a great value at more than 6x return.