Three races since Daytona and all of them have the same winner, Kevin Harvick. This last win wasn’t in quite as dominating fashion as the previous two, but a win is a win. Kyle Busch led the Phoenix race in points and laps led but couldn’t quite track down the 4-car in time for the win. Now we turn our attention to the last race in the NASCAR goes West stretch as we head to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, California (just outside of L.A.).
Auto Club Speedway, or Fontana as it’s also known, is a 2-mile D-shaped oval track with 14-degree banking in the turns and 11-degree banking in the front stretch. There are only two tracks on the schedule that are this length and shape, Michigan is the other one, but Texas Motor Speedway is a similar track to those as well, so it has been included in the track type section.
Over the last few years, Kyle Larson has been the one to beat at this distance with three-straight wins at Michigan International Speedway, a second place, and a win at Fontana. That being said however, there are four different winners over the last four races at Auto Club Speedway and only two of those winners have lead 40 or more laps in the last four races combined. It is a track that can lead to a dominating win i.e. Larson, or one that has multiple leaders each running out front for chunks at a time. There have been between seven and nine cautions in each of the last five races with each of the last four going into overtime (more than 200 laps) in order to complete the races.
Track Data
Last Four Races at Auto Club Speedway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Brad Keselowski | 4 | 7 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 39 |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 12.3 | 16 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 110 |
| Kyle Busch | 3 | 9.7 | 7 | 11.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 4 | 18.3 | 9.8 | 13.8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 129 |
| Joey Logano | 4 | 16 | 11.8 | 13.8 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Kevin Harvick | 4 | 3.8 | 13 | 13.3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 176 |
| Kurt Busch | 4 | 14.8 | 17.5 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 67 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 4 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 16.8 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 99 |
| Paul Menard | 4 | 19.3 | 17.5 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | 3.7 | 9.3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 62 |
| Ryan Newman | 4 | 8.5 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 4 | 15.3 | 14 | 16.8 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 4 | 20.8 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamie McMurray | 4 | 17.3 | 14.5 | 10.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Chase Elliott | 2 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 4 | 17.8 | 20.8 | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Ryan Blaney | 2 | 16.5 | 13.5 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Suarez | 1 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Jones | 1 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 1 | 21 | 16 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kasey Kahne | 4 | 17.3 | 22 | 26.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Austin Dillon | 4 | 13.3 | 16.5 | 15.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Trevor Bayne | 3 | 26.3 | 22 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Aric Almirola | 4 | 25 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| David Ragan | 4 | 26.8 | 29.8 | 24.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Buescher | 3 | 23 | 28.3 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cole Whitt | 4 | 32.5 | 29.8 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Bowman | 2 | 34 | 31 | 27.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Reed Sorenson | 2 | 32.5 | 34 | 27.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Michael McDowell | 2 | 27.5 | 28.5 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timmy Hill | 1 | 34 | 37 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 2 | 35.5 | 36 | 36.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gray Gaulding | 1 | 39 | 34 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 3 | 37.7 | 34 | 32.7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| William Byron | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | High to | Low to | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Avg Rating | Avg Rating |
| Brad Keselowski | 25 | 78% | 9 | 95.9 | 114.6 | 86 | -2.5 | 2.44 | 18.7 | 9.9 |
| Kyle Larson | 40 | 66% | 8 | 86.6 | 144.3 | 29.8 | -4.7 | 6.88 | 57.7 | 56.8 |
| Kyle Busch | 29 | 94% | 1 | 106 | 123.1 | 92 | -1.6 | 1.00 | 17.1 | 14 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 77 | 70% | 3 | 106.5 | 127.4 | 65.9 | 4.5 | 8.06 | 20.9 | 40.6 |
| Joey Logano | 19 | 80% | 11 | 97.1 | 112.6 | 72.1 | 2.2 | 0.25 | 15.5 | 25 |
| Kevin Harvick | 108 | 61% | 3 | 104.4 | 144 | 61.4 | -9.5 | 11.00 | 39.6 | 43 |
| Kurt Busch | 55 | 49% | 1 | 82.3 | 135.4 | 36 | -0.2 | 4.19 | 53.1 | 46.3 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 46 | 67% | 9 | 95.4 | 130.8 | 55.9 | -5.5 | 6.19 | 35.4 | 39.5 |
| Paul Menard | 1 | 53% | -7 | 76.9 | 100.6 | 52.9 | 5.3 | 0.13 | 23.7 | 24 |
| Denny Hamlin | 23 | 84% | 6 | 99.1 | 104.6 | 92.5 | -11.3 | 5.17 | 5.5 | 6.6 |
| Ryan Newman | 1 | 63% | -6 | 81.8 | 92.8 | 63.4 | -5 | 0.19 | 11 | 18.4 |
| Clint Bowyer | 12 | 48% | 11 | 84.4 | 113.6 | 55.7 | -1.5 | 0.13 | 29.2 | 28.7 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 6 | 44% | -4 | 71.8 | 88.7 | 56.5 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 16.9 | 15.3 |
| Jamie McMurray | 3 | 56% | 2 | 84.6 | 105.4 | 64.4 | 6.5 | 0.00 | 20.8 | 20.2 |
| Chase Elliott | 26 | 97% | 15 | 109 | 112.8 | 105.1 | 2.5 | 0.63 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 9 | 35% | 11 | 70.6 | 86.7 | 46.4 | 1 | 0.00 | 16.1 | 24.2 |
| Ryan Blaney | 0 | 69% | -3 | 80 | 92.2 | 67.7 | -5.5 | 0.00 | 12.2 | 12.3 |
| Daniel Suarez | 0 | 18% | 0 | 77.7 | 77.7 | 77.7 | 3 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Jones | 4 | 96% | 15 | 100.6 | 100.6 | 100.6 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Dillon | 4 | 43% | -4 | 70.5 | 70.5 | 70.5 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Kasey Kahne | 6 | 41% | -6 | 70.1 | 78.8 | 55 | -9.2 | 0.00 | 8.7 | 15.1 |
| Austin Dillon | 1 | 39% | 2 | 78.5 | 86.3 | 70.6 | -2.2 | 0.00 | 7.8 | 7.9 |
| Trevor Bayne | 3 | 34% | 4 | 63.1 | 76 | 50.3 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 12.9 | 12.8 |
| Aric Almirola | 0 | 18% | 6 | 67.3 | 81 | 53 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 13.7 | 14.3 |
| David Ragan | 2 | 4% | -13 | 50.5 | 77.7 | 36.8 | 2.3 | 0.06 | 27.2 | 13.7 |
| Chris Buescher | 23 | 2% | -3 | 54.4 | 59.4 | 49 | -3 | 0.00 | 5 | 5.4 |
| Cole Whitt | 0 | 1% | -4 | 45.5 | 54.9 | 36 | 7.5 | 0.00 | 9.4 | 9.5 |
| Alex Bowman | 0 | 1% | -15 | 43.6 | 46.9 | 40.2 | 6.5 | 0.13 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Reed Sorenson | 0 | 1% | -9 | 36.8 | 42.3 | 31.2 | 5 | 0.13 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Michael McDowell | 0 | 1% | -15 | 42.5 | 44.8 | 40.2 | -4.5 | 0.00 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Timmy Hill | 0 | 1% | -2 | 27.7 | 27.7 | 27.7 | -1 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | 1 | 1% | -5 | 26.8 | 28.3 | 25.3 | -1 | 0.00 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Gray Gaulding | 0 | 1% | -6 | 31.3 | 31.3 | 31.3 | 2 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 7 | 0% | 0 | 37 | 43.9 | 23.9 | 5 | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13.1 |
| William Byron | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
Top-15 Drivers at Last Eight Races at Auto Club Speedway
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Busch | 7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 372 |
| Kevin Harvick | 8 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 178 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 8 | 15.6 | 8.9 | 10.3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 156 |
| Brad Keselowski | 8 | 11.8 | 15.5 | 16.4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 39 |
| Kyle Larson | 4 | 12.3 | 16 | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 110 |
| Ryan Newman | 8 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 |
| Joey Logano | 8 | 11.4 | 13.5 | 14.8 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 45 |
| Kurt Busch | 8 | 19.1 | 18.8 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 67 |
| Clint Bowyer | 8 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 15.5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 43 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 8 | 12.1 | 13.5 | 16.5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 100 |
| Kasey Kahne | 8 | 14.6 | 17.6 | 17.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Paul Menard | 8 | 21.3 | 18 | 15.1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| Denny Hamlin | 7 | 7 | 10.3 | 18.3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 82 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 5 | 22.8 | 19 | 19.2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jamie McMurray | 8 | 14.4 | 17.1 | 16.8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Kyle Busch | 140 | 93% | 5 | 118.4 | 148 | 82.3 | -2.3 | 13.29 | 65.7 |
| Kevin Harvick | 158 | 72% | 7 | 105.4 | 144 | 61.4 | 0.3 | 5.56 | 82.6 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 120 | 78% | 5 | 107 | 127.4 | 65.9 | 5.3 | 4.88 | 61.5 |
| Brad Keselowski | 27 | 56% | 6 | 81.7 | 114.6 | 55 | -4.6 | 1.22 | 59.6 |
| Kyle Larson | 40 | 66% | 8 | 86.6 | 144.3 | 29.8 | -4.7 | 6.88 | 114.5 |
| Ryan Newman | 16 | 72% | -4 | 90.1 | 107.9 | 63.4 | 0.3 | 0.34 | 44.5 |
| Joey Logano | 50 | 61% | 6 | 91.8 | 127 | 64.5 | -3.4 | 1.41 | 62.5 |
| Kurt Busch | 63 | 37% | 3 | 79.8 | 135.4 | 36 | 5.1 | 2.09 | 99.4 |
| Clint Bowyer | 51 | 66% | 10 | 93.1 | 124.4 | 55.7 | -1.1 | 1.34 | 68.7 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 77 | 64% | 3 | 90.3 | 130.8 | 55.9 | -4.4 | 3.13 | 74.9 |
| Kasey Kahne | 12 | 57% | 4 | 81.6 | 106.2 | 55 | -3.2 | 0.00 | 51.2 |
| Paul Menard | 6 | 44% | -8 | 75.7 | 100.6 | 52.9 | 6.2 | 0.16 | 47.7 |
| Denny Hamlin | 42 | 81% | 5 | 98.2 | 115.1 | 78.7 | -11.3 | 2.93 | 36.4 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 6 | 39% | -5 | 70.6 | 88.7 | 56.5 | 3.6 | 0.00 | 32.2 |
| Jamie McMurray | 15 | 42% | -7 | 78.2 | 105.4 | 64.4 | -2.4 | 0.44 | 41 |
Top-15 Drivers at Similar Tracks (Since Feb. 2015)
| Avg. | Avg. | Avg. | Top | Top | Top | Top | Laps | |||
| Driver | Races | Start | Run Pos. | Finish | Wins | 5s | 10s | 15s | 20s | Led |
| Kyle Larson | 16 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 14.6 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 331 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 16 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 322 |
| Kyle Busch | 14 | 11.5 | 13.8 | 14.9 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 120 |
| Joey Logano | 16 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 409 |
| Kevin Harvick | 16 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 510 |
| Brad Keselowski | 16 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 519 |
| Kurt Busch | 16 | 13.4 | 14 | 12.2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 118 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 16 | 10.9 | 8 | 9.3 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 599 |
| Chase Elliott | 10 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 76 |
| Denny Hamlin | 15 | 7.8 | 12.7 | 14.7 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 144 |
| Ryan Newman | 16 | 14.4 | 16.8 | 14.6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 6 |
| Jamie McMurray | 16 | 14.9 | 14.1 | 10.6 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 14 | 10.7 | 16.4 | 21.2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 148 |
| Austin Dillon | 16 | 13.4 | 16.3 | 17.3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 27 |
| Paul Menard | 15 | 20.7 | 20.4 | 20.8 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| Fast | Top 15 | Pass | Avg. | High | Low | Pos. | Laps Led | Rating | |
| Driver | Laps | Rate | Diff. | Rating | Rating | Rating | Diff. | Pts/Race | Range |
| Kyle Larson | 234 | 77% | 11 | 97.5 | 144.3 | 29.8 | -1.5 | 5.17 | 114.5 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 233 | 66% | 11 | 96.7 | 137.5 | 60.6 | 0.5 | 5.03 | 76.9 |
| Kyle Busch | 173 | 70% | 6 | 93.6 | 123.9 | 62.8 | -3.4 | 2.14 | 61.1 |
| Joey Logano | 190 | 79% | -1 | 101.1 | 149.2 | 44.1 | -1.1 | 6.39 | 105.1 |
| Kevin Harvick | 351 | 83% | 6 | 111.6 | 144 | 61.4 | -2.7 | 7.97 | 82.6 |
| Brad Keselowski | 230 | 84% | 5 | 103 | 145 | 79.1 | -1.3 | 8.11 | 65.9 |
| Kurt Busch | 93 | 63% | 6 | 87.3 | 135.4 | 36 | 1.2 | 1.84 | 99.4 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 388 | 86% | 6 | 110.4 | 132.6 | 55.9 | 1.6 | 9.36 | 76.7 |
| Chase Elliott | 139 | 93% | 14 | 106.2 | 126.5 | 93.2 | 7.7 | 1.90 | 33.3 |
| Denny Hamlin | 79 | 74% | -5 | 89.8 | 116.7 | 45.1 | -6.9 | 2.40 | 71.6 |
| Ryan Newman | 23 | 44% | -2 | 76.4 | 96.8 | 51.7 | -0.2 | 0.09 | 45.1 |
| Jamie McMurray | 19 | 63% | 2 | 84.5 | 105.4 | 64.4 | 4.3 | 0.14 | 41 |
| Ryan Blaney | 96 | 59% | -6 | 80.8 | 121.8 | 30.8 | -10.5 | 2.64 | 91 |
| Austin Dillon | 49 | 52% | 0 | 77.7 | 112.3 | 35.9 | -3.9 | 0.42 | 76.4 |
| Paul Menard | 20 | 35% | -3 | 69.3 | 100.6 | 40.9 | -0.1 | 0.07 | 59.7 |
Points Changes at Auto Club 400
| 17 Race | Season | DK Pts +/- | |
| Driver | Total | Avg DK Pts. | Season AVG |
| Kyle Larson | 92.5 | 36.2 | 56.3 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 75.75 | 43.8 | 32.0 |
| Joey Logano | 74.75 | 44.2 | 30.6 |
| Clint Bowyer | 58 | 41.5 | 16.5 |
| Chase Elliott | 48.5 | 29.2 | 19.3 |
| Kyle Busch | 47.25 | 52.5 | -5.2 |
| Ryan Blaney | 45 | 47.8 | -2.8 |
| Brad Keselowski | 44 | 45.7 | -1.7 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 41.5 | 20.4 | 21.1 |
| Jamie McMurray | 40.5 | 18.8 | 21.8 |
| Daniel Suarez | 40 | 19.3 | 20.7 |
| Aric Almirola | 37 | 41.8 | -4.8 |
| Erik Jones | 36 | 29.4 | 6.6 |
| Trevor Bayne | 34.5 | 25.7 | 8.8 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 34 | 25.7 | 8.4 |
| Austin Dillon | 33.5 | 41.8 | -8.3 |
| Ty Dillon | 31.25 | 17.7 | 13.6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 31 | 71.8 | -40.8 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 24 | 23.6 | 0.4 |
| Denny Hamlin | 20.5 | 44.8 | -24.3 |
| Ryan Newman | 19 | 40.6 | -21.6 |
| Kasey Kahne | 16 | 21.7 | -5.7 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 16 | 22.9 | -6.9 |
| Chris Buescher | 14 | 33.7 | -19.7 |
| Paul Menard | 12 | 28.5 | -16.5 |
| Kurt Busch | 11.5 | 33.3 | -21.8 |
| David Ragan | 9 | 24.5 | -15.5 |
| Gray Gaulding | 9 | 18.5 | 15.1 |
| Cole Whitt | 8 | 21.0 | 16.3 |
| Timmy Hill | 8 | 13.0 | -5.0 |
| Michael McDowell | 3 | 21.2 | -18.2 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | -2 | 20.8 | -22.8 |
| Average +/- | 16.5 |
Top-10 and Bottom 10 Value Drivers
| Top 10 Value | Bottom 10 Value | ||||
| 1 | Kevin Harvick | 6.25 | 37 | Reed Sorenson | 0.00 |
| 2 | Chris Buescher | 5.91 | 36 | Jimmie Johnson | 2.27 |
| 3 | Austin Dillon | 5.64 | 35 | Jamie McMurray | 2.60 |
| 4 | Ryan Blaney | 5.43 | 34 | Timmy Hill | 2.71 |
| 5 | Ryan Newman | 5.20 | 33 | Daniel Suarez | 2.76 |
| 6 | Clint Bowyer | 5.19 | 32 | Ty Dillon | 2.81 |
| 7 | Kyle Busch | 5.09 | 31 | Chase Elliott | 3.01 |
| 8 | Aric Almirola | 4.91 | 30 | Alex Bowman | 3.03 |
| 9 | Denny Hamlin | 4.82 | 29 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 3.05 |
| 10 | Matt DiBenedetto | 4.72 | 28 | Kasey Kahne | 3.55 |
Drivers to Watch This Week:
Kyle Larson: As mentioned a bit above, Larson has been on fire here recently with a win and a P2 in the last two tries. He is also third in the laps led department with 110 and fifth in fastest laps with 40. Larson has the highest rating in the field at 144.3 but his average rating overall is a middling 86.6 indicating the finishes outside the top-20 which, there are two of, have really hurt his overall profile. An average finish of P17 is five spots behind where he’s typically started, but if he can mimic his performances from the last two years, he will once again be a candidate for top point scorer in the race.
Chase Elliott: Chase only has two races under his belt here, but that hasn’t stopped him from being the best driver in the field in some categories. He has two top-10s in the last two races, has only five laps led, but does have 26 fastest laps to his credit. Meanwhile Elliott has been in the top-15 97% of the time, the best mark in the field and has the highest average rating at 109 with the highest low rating as well at 105.1, both outstanding marks. He doesn’t have a win or many laps led, but he has been the best Hendrick car this season and that should be the case once more this week.
Joey Logano: Logano has been flying a bit under the radar to start the year with all top-10 finishes heading into Phoenix before he finished P19 last week. Now comes a track he’s had good history on with two top-fives and three top-10s in the last four races with a solid 97.1 driver rating (ranks fifth among drivers with multiple races on the track). The laps led and fast laps aren’t there how we might like to see them, but a consistently fast car (and one that’s been great a Michigan, a sister track) puts him in the conversation to watch this week.
Jimmie Johnson: JJ has a win, and two top-10s in the last four races along with 129 laps led and 77 fastest laps. His average rating of 106.5 is the highest in the field for any with three or more races run since 2014’s race. Some life was shown in the 48-team last week with a strong run at Phoenix and now with news breaking that he will lose his full-time sponsor at year’s end, there’s pressure to make that breakthrough stick. He has still been iffy to start the year but a track he has good history at, and in his home state, is certainly a good way to get his mojo going once more.
Paul Menard: Menard is $6,800 this week, far cheaper than anyone else on this list, however that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been good here. He has a top-five, two top-10s, and three top-15s in the last four races and has a position differential of +5.3, which puts him second in that category for anyone with three or more races here in the field. The downside is a 53% mark in the top-15 rate and an average driver rating of 76.9, which isn’t great for a guy with his finishes. However the cheaper price tag and a good history outweigh the slight downsides to Menard.