Another race and another Kevin Harvick victory, though this time he won’t be able to use it come playoff time as it was an encumbered win for two different L1 level penalties in post-race inspection. Now we head to the second race in the NASCAR goes West section of the schedule from ISM Raceway, previously known as Phoenix International Raceway. The track has been undergoing some modifications over the last year and change and this Sunday’s race will be the last one run in its current setup, that is with the dogleg as Turn 2. By the time the fall race, the last chance to seal a spot in the championship race, there will be a whole new track layout with the start/finish line moving to what is now the backstretch, making turns 1 and 2 become 3 and 4 instead.

ISM Raceway is a 1-mile track that is also a nearly flat track all the way throughout. There is slight banking, but it’s not anything like most of the other tracks run on the schedule. That flatness means that speeds will generally be kept slower as turning is much harder at slower speeds. The driver that can get in the bsest braking pattern throughout the day will likely wind up in front when it counts. This track in the desert is very similar to one found across the continent in New Hamphire as Loudon is another flat 1-mile oval. The thing that really distinguishes ISM is the dogleg turn which allows for a maneuver known as the “dive bomb” in which a driver will cut the corner on what would normally be the apron and sweep up next to who they are trying to pass by the time they reach the straightaway.

Just as a heads up, the number on the race this week indicates kilometers to be run, not miles or laps. There are 312 laps in the race at one mile a lap gives you 312 miles which is the equivalent of 500 kilometers. Now that we have our metric lessen for the day. Lets move on. For the track type info (the table with 18 races) the data comes from the tracks that are similar in construct to ISM Raceway and races from 2015 and sooner.

Track Data

Last Four Races at ISM Raceway (scroll right on a mobile device)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick413.37413444139
Joey Logano45.88.815.511123140
Ryan Newman418.819.518111236
Kyle Busch49.36403444189
Kyle Larson441514.30223315
Chase Elliott47.86.37.801344140
Denny Hamlin47.39.313.801333197
Erik Jones29.576012220
Kurt Busch410.51414.3012221
Ricky Stenhouse Jr419.82318012220
Brad Keselowski413.81116011230
Martin Truex Jr417.313.817011330
Ryan Blaney45.81214.50022311
Alex Bowman112600111194
Jamie McMurray49.51212001340
Jimmie Johnson41215.324.30012213
Austin Dillon41516.520001230
Daniel Suarez218.518.512.5001120
Aric Almirola422.820.315.3001230
Paul Menard418.321.821001220
Kasey Kahne4161518.5000130
Clint Bowyer425.52220.3000220
Ty Dillon32418.714000230
AJ Allmendinger420.821.320.8000020
Darrell Wallace Jr0000000000
Justin Marks0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
William Byron0000000000
Matt DiBenedetto428.82825.3000010
Michael McDowell42827.326.5000000
Trevor Bayne423.326.327000010
DJ Kennington23834.530.5000000
David Ragan43028.830.8000000
Chris Buescher431.53031.5000001
Jeffrey Earnhardt3373633.7000000
Corey LaJoie23234.534.5000000
Gray Gaulding236.53736.5000000
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Kevin Harvick10191%4111.8140.497.99.38.6928.613.9
Joey Logano4383%-1296125.678.7-9.78.7529.617.3
Ryan Newman5248%975.8102.237.20.80.3826.438.6
Kyle Busch9698%6111.8129.697.75.311.8117.814.1
Kyle Larson6056%093.5124.178.5-10.30.9430.615
Chase Elliott10199%4109.1115.910108.756.88.1
Denny Hamlin6781%10100.7117.283.8-6.512.3116.516.9
Erik Jones27100%9105.5110.2100.73.50.004.74.8
Kurt Busch058%-781.6105.365-3.80.0623.716.6
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1116%767.780.954.81.80.0013.212.9
Brad Keselowski4278%490.511968.9-2.20.0028.521.6
Martin Truex Jr4170%1188.8115.566.80.30.0026.722
Ryan Blaney378%-782.985.281.3-8.70.692.31.6
Alex Bowman58100%4138138138-548.5000
Jamie McMurray3677%-688.498.770.2-2.50.0010.318.2
Jimmie Johnson8068%1789105.158.6-12.30.8116.130.4
Austin Dillon651%-276.592.165.9-50.0015.610.6
Daniel Suarez029%-871.673.569.660.001.92
Aric Almirola129%1366.783.346.87.50.0016.619.9
Paul Menard18%-763.173.445.8-2.70.0010.317.3
Kasey Kahne2760%777.198.862-2.50.0021.715.1
Clint Bowyer640%462.785.835.35.20.0023.127.4
Ty Dillon117%273.382.163.8100.008.89.5
AJ Allmendinger111%-760.569.65300.009.17.5
Darrell Wallace Jr00%00000 00
Justin Marks00%00000 00
Ross Chastain00%00000 00
William Byron00%00000 00
Matt DiBenedetto00%-248.157.739.93.50.009.68.2
Michael McDowell30%049.557.141.51.50.007.68
Trevor Bayne00%-252.660.346.2-3.70.007.76.4
DJ Kennington00%434.840.828.87.50.0066
David Ragan50%-5445134.8-0.80.0079.2
Chris Buescher00%-541.846.537.200.064.74.6
Jeffrey Earnhardt00%-429.834.723.23.30.004.96.6
Corey LaJoie10%23338.727.3-2.50.005.75.7
Gray Gaulding00%-528.131.524.700.003.43.4

Top-15 Drivers at Last Eight Races at ISM Raceway (scroll right on mobile device)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick89.84.42.647888994
Joey Logano85.67.110.413567263
Ryan Newman817.115.513.01236712
Kyle Busch78.67.49.004666190
Brad Keselowski810.38.610.80356759
Kurt Busch89.012.014.4025551
Denny Hamlin810.012.313.802556221
Kyle Larson86.313.815.10235615
Chase Elliott47.86.37.801344140
Jamie McMurray89.411.911.1013781
Jimmie Johnson811.013.519.80135557
Erik Jones38.79.010.3012230
Martin Truex Jr816.313.015.4012660
Ricky Stenhouse Jr818.922.520.0012350
Kasey Kahne814.415.817.0011350
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Kevin Harvick47496%4130.2150.097.97.231.0652.1
Joey Logano12387%-5105.7125.678.7-4.88.2246.9
Ryan Newman6660%985.6110.437.24.10.3873.2
Kyle Busch11893%3105.2129.676.2-0.46.7953.4
Brad Keselowski13388%3101.1122.468.9-0.51.8453.5
Kurt Busch6572%-190.8118.165.0-5.40.0353.1
Denny Hamlin7968%691.5117.263.7-3.86.9153.5
Kyle Larson6262%-590.9124.174.7-8.80.4749.4
Chase Elliott10199%4109.1115.9101.008.7514.9
Jamie McMurray5679%091.0112.170.2-1.70.0341.9
Jimmie Johnson13869%2291.6111.858.6-8.81.7853.2
Erik Jones2896%098.0110.283.1-1.60.0027.1
Martin Truex Jr5469%889.2115.566.40.90.0049.1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1112%266.980.954.8-1.10.0026.1
Kasey Kahne3953%579.5105.762.0-2.60.0043.7

Top-15 Drivers on Similar Tracks (since 2015) (scroll right on mobile device)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Kevin Harvick18.09.177.5313141616865
Kyle Busch16.07.96.27.529131415830
Joey Logano18.08.610.29.429131516331
Denny Hamlin18.08.49.910.126121515540
Kyle Larson18.010.212.612.4168131590
Kurt Busch18.07.210.812.015121314350
Ryan Newman18.017.316.214.5136111535
Brad Keselowski18.011.18.29.906101517297
Martin Truex Jr18.010.810.112.404101416904
Jimmie Johnson18.010.812.112.80391515102
Jamie McMurray18.012.21212.402612175
Kasey Kahne18.013.814.816.50268120
Ricky Stenhouse Jr18.018.420.718.30248120
Chase Elliott13.013.011.413.9014911141
Erik Jones7.010.015.717.1014450
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Kevin Harvick64592%4112.915058.91.612.0191.1
Kyle Busch49094%4114.5149.273.70.412.9775.5
Joey Logano18579%-198.8125.661.3-0.84.6064.3
Denny Hamlin33578%3101.3137.863.7-1.77.5074.1
Kyle Larson19469%-193.4125.863.7-2.21.2562.1
Kurt Busch15978%-295.1148.152.8-4.84.8695.3
Ryan Newman7653%479.9110.437.22.80.4973.2
Brad Keselowski42189%6103133.168.91.24.1364.2
Martin Truex Jr46081%6103134.954.6-1.612.5680.3
Jimmie Johnson18175%993.9116.558.6-21.4257.9
Jamie McMurray9074%-288.5112.164.5-0.20.0747.6
Kasey Kahne12160%581.3107.958.5-2.70.0049.4
Ricky Stenhouse Jr4822%369.888.651.20.10.0037.4
Chase Elliott14675%491.1115.964.8-0.92.7151.1
Erik Jones7671%082111.324.2-7.10.0087.1

DraftKings Points Changes for March Phoenix Race

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverTotalAvg DK Pts.Season AVG
Kyle Busch10340.6562.35
Chase Elliott8023.6556.35
Ryan Newman77.540.0537.45
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5921.6537.35
Daniel Suarez5713.37543.63
Kevin Harvick5767.7-10.70
Kyle Larson56.7537.2519.50
Brad Keselowski56.544.5511.95
Jimmie Johnson48.517.930.60
Denny Hamlin46.542.34.20
Erik Jones3927.5511.45
Aric Almirola3839.188-1.19
Martin Truex Jr3844.45-6.45
Clint Bowyer3436.25-2.25
Trevor Bayne3025.8754.13
Jamie McMurray2722.24.80
Ty Dillon2719.1257.88
Austin Dillon25.544.5-19.00
Chris Buescher23.2539.625-16.38
Michael McDowell2123.688-2.69
Paul Menard2039.063-19.06
Matt DiBenedetto1623.5-7.50
Kasey Kahne14.521.4-6.90
Joey Logano12.550.8-38.30
AJ Allmendinger1226.563-14.56
David Ragan826.625-18.63
Gray Gaulding821.063-13.06
Kurt Busch5.2529.212.40
Jeffrey Earnhardt423.2512.07
Ryan Blaney152.55-51.55
Corey LaJoie-113.5-14.50
  Average +/-19.32

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

Top 10 Value  Bottom 10 Value 
Justin Marks9.9437Daniel Suarez1.81
Chris Buescher7.0836Jimmie Johnson1.99
D.J. Kennington6.4835Chase Elliott2.41
Kevin Harvick5.9434Corey Lajoie2.87
Ryan Blaney5.9033Jamie McMurray2.92
Austin Dillon5.7832Alex Bowman2.94
Paul Menard5.3531Ty Dillon2.99
Joey Logano5.3530Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.05
Ryan Newman5.2029William Byron3.08
Jeffrey Earnhardt5.1728Erik Jones3.32

Drivers to watch this week:

Kevin Harvick: Harvick isn’t just on this list because of what he’s done the last two weeks, which was pure domination, but because of what he does at this track in addition to that. In the last four races here, he is tied for the highest average finish at 6.0, he has a win, three top-fives, and four top-10s with 139 laps led. However if you look at the last eight races here, Harvick has won four of them with eight top-10s and 994 laps led, more than 700 ahead of the second place driver on that list. The issues from last week my hamper him a bit, but there’s a reason that he’s the most expensive guy for Sunday.

Kyle Busch: The only thing that really separates Busch and Harvick is the fact that the latter has a win here recently and the former doesn’t. That’s about it and in fact, Busch has 50 more laps led over the last four than does Harvick. The 18-car was in the running all day at Vegas but just couldn’t find the speed necessary to take it to victory lane. That being said, he is the reigning highest scoring driver of this race with 103 points scored in this race a year ago. In last March’s race he led 114 laps which helped bolster his point total, as did the 55 fastest laps he ran too. He is gunning to get on the board in 2018 and this maybe the place for him to break through.

Chase Elliott: Phoenix has been kind to Chase in the past with a top-five, three top-10s, and four top-15s in the last four tries. He also led 106 laps at this race a year ago to put up the second-highest score of the race at 80 points. The 106 run up front last year account for all but 34 of his total in the recent history here. Chase has run in the top-15 an astonishing 99% of the time in the last two years here, which is best in the field for anyone with three or more races in that time. He also has the third highest average driver rating, following only the two guys ahead of him in this section who are tied for the best mark.

Alex Bowman: Bowman the Showman certainly put on a show at his home track back in November of 2016 when he replaced Dale Earnhardt Jr. in the 88-car for the week. He led 194 of the 312 laps that day and came home P6 after starting on the pole. He’s had a fast car in spurts so far this year but coming home for a race for the first time as a full-time MENCS driver could get his mojo going at another level. Bowman is in the mid-tier price level once more this week and could bring some nice value if his car is tuned like it was in 2016.

Ty Dillon: Dillon makes this list as the cheap driver that I love this week. He has the only positive double-digit position differential in the field over the last four races and has two top-15s and three top-20s to his credit in that span. He may not lead any laps or get you many, if any, fast laps, but at $6,400 for Sunday’s race, there are certainly far worse places you could look to save money on the budget.