It’s desert racing time folks! The third week of the season starts the NASCAR goes west tour with races in Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Fontana (outside L.A.). First up is the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. It’s a pretty standard 1.5-mile asphalt layout that has progressive banking in the turns from 12-20 degrees the closer to the wall you get.

This year is a bit different though since there will be a return trip to LVMS later in the season, the first race of The Chase in fact, and the race on Sunday could be a great study session for the later race as well. Like most 1.5 mile tracks, there are only a handful of drivers over a series of races that really rack up the laps led totals. In this case there are five drivers in the 37-car field that have led 150+ laps in the last four races combined, including recent 1.5 mile king Martin Truex Jr. So when picking the lineups this week, be aware of that fact it is likely that once again one driver will dominate the laps led category on Sunday.

While Las Vegas is the same distance as Atlanta was last week, it’s a different style of track so simply taking what happened at Atlanta and moving it to Vegas won’t work well. It is a tri-oval this week not a quad-oval and the surfaces are different with not nearly as many pit stops being necessary to save the tires. Over the course of the 267 laps to be run on Sunday, not every pit stop will be four-tire stops, in fact two-tire stops will dominate the stops.

Track Data

Last Four Races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (on a mobile device scroll right)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Brad Keselowski44.55.83.523444175
Martin Truex Jr486.8712244153
Kevin Harvick414.812.821.811222166
Joey Logano42.86.8503444168
Ryan Newman414.812.3100123414
Jimmie Johnson410.39.815.301233174
Denny Hamlin417.512.510.50123411
Kyle Larson41114.315.8012230
Chase Elliott212.5920.5011110
Kyle Busch317.3712.30112290
Paul Menard418.51512.3011346
Austin Dillon41416.316.5011132
Kasey Kahne47.811.511.8002340
Ryan Blaney315.713.310.7002230
Jamie McMurray41415.512.5001340
Kurt Busch313.71721.70011132
Clint Bowyer417.818.819001110
AJ Allmendinger418.820.815.5001230
Erik Jones181015000110
Ricky Stenhouse Jr420.521.525.3000110
Trevor Bayne429.321.519.5000131
Aric Almirola41523.322.3000110
Daniel Suarez1112220000010
Ty Dillon1242221000002
Chris Buescher2252924.5000000
Michael McDowell430.830.330000012
Gray Gaulding1353334000000
Cole Custer0000000000
Darrell Wallace Jr0000000000
Joey Gase0000000000
Ross Chastain0000000000
William Byron0000000000
Matt DiBenedetto232.53128.5000000
David Ragan425.531.828.8000000
Jeffrey Earnhardt23735.532.5000000
Cole Whitt433.83533.8000000
Alex Bowman231.53940000000
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedHigh toLow to
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceAvg RatingAvg Rating
Brad Keselowski13993%4121.8134.6102.8110.9412.819
Martin Truex Jr7394%4112.6147.688.919.563523.7
Kevin Harvick13173%6101.3141.562.2-710.3840.239.1
Joey Logano9396%7112.8130.6102.6-2.210.5017.810.2
Ryan Newman1781%288.7103.4774.80.8814.711.7
Jimmie Johnson12979%6111.2130.394.7-510.8819.116.5
Denny Hamlin773%-888108.774.370.6920.713.7
Kyle Larson1659%-686.311353.3-4.80.0026.733
Chase Elliott1791%1199.3116.382.2-80.001717.1
Kyle Busch3386%6102.9108.197.357.505.25.6
Paul Menard2548%182.4108.164.26.20.3825.718.2
Austin Dillon748%-781.3104.463.1-2.50.1323.118.2
Kasey Kahne2878%-489.510278.2-40.0012.511.3
Ryan Blaney1764%789102.96350.0013.926
Jamie McMurray652%277.286.958.81.50.009.718.4
Kurt Busch2038%674.693.362.9-82.6718.711.7
Clint Bowyer628%468.484.451.2-1.20.001617.2
AJ Allmendinger1826%37194.150.53.30.0023.120.5
Erik Jones095%990.590.590.5-70.0000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr321%164.781.853.7-4.80.0017.111
Trevor Bayne014%46475.551.19.80.0611.512.9
Aric Almirola112%-565.872.560.3-7.30.006.75.5
Daniel Suarez24%-16606060-90.0000
Ty Dillon02%-558.258.258.230.5000
Chris Buescher01%-75153.548.40.50.002.52.6
Michael McDowell01%-943.957.233.40.80.1313.310.5
Gray Gaulding01%-935.735.735.710.0000
Cole Custer00%00000 00
Darrell Wallace Jr00%00000 00
Joey Gase00%00000 00
Ross Chastain00%00000 00
William Byron00%00000 00
Matt DiBenedetto20%040.545.235.840.004.74.7
David Ragan00%042.253.831.7-3.30.0011.610.5
Jeffrey Earnhardt00%-33132.329.64.50.001.31.4
Cole Whitt00%33641.523.200.005.512.8
Alex Bowman00%-834.435.733.1-8.50.001.31.3

Top-15 Drivers at Las Vegas Motor Speedway Since 2007 (on a mobile device scroll right)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Brad Keselowski99.814.615.424555188
Kevin Harvick1015.610.814.213578181
Jimmie Johnson10121113.913567385
Kyle Busch98.810.314.313366225
Martin Truex Jr101411.112.612479156
Joey Logano9811.11003578169
Ryan Newman1012.313.814.40346814
Kasey Kahne1012.912.810.8015810115
Denny Hamlin1019.815.813.40146914
Clint Bowyer1017.719.716.20145516
Paul Menard1023.716.415.2013689
Kyle Larson41114.315.8012230
Chase Elliott212.5920.5011110
Austin Dillon516.617.817.4011132
Jamie McMurray1020.718.116.6003672
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Brad Keselowski16362%-391.1134.627.5-5.65.22107.1
Kevin Harvick17876%7100.9141.562.21.44.5379.3
Jimmie Johnson29671%6105.5130.347.1-1.99.6383.2
Kyle Busch9576%4100.9118.574.1-5.56.2544.4
Martin Truex Jr8975%396147.652.71.43.9094.9
Joey Logano11273%-496.3130.673.9-24.6956.7
Ryan Newman2467%-583.4103.459.8-2.10.3543.6
Kasey Kahne9167%489.8138.968.52.12.8870.4
Denny Hamlin1747%280.2108.761.76.40.3547
Clint Bowyer1139%170.893.640.51.50.4053.1
Paul Menard4049%277.8108.148.18.50.2360
Kyle Larson1659%-686.311353.3-4.80.0059.7
Chase Elliott1791%1199.3116.382.2-80.0034.1
Austin Dillon839%-478.4104.463.1-0.80.1041.3
Jamie McMurray1445%973.394.846.74.10.0548.1

Top-15 Drivers at 1.5-mile Tracks Since Feb. 2015 (on a mobile device scroll right)

  Avg.Avg.Avg. TopTopTopTopLaps
DriverRacesStartRun Pos.FinishWins5s10s15s20sLed
Martin Truex Jr256.95.66.210142024242120
Jimmie Johnson2515.41314.148101518483
Kevin Harvick256.16.58.23122222231550
Brad Keselowski25710.812.339162021332
Kyle Busch259.28.99.8211162022687
Denny Hamlin257.310.412.3110151820355
Austin Dillon2515.315.115.8135142014
Chase Elliott2513.611.812.8010171919241
Joey Logano2511.111.41309161718318
Kyle Larson2516.611.315.109121618539
Kurt Busch2510.411.412.905141720168
Ryan Blaney2513.415.415.80491517242
Jamie McMurray2513.814.614.4021116215
Ryan Newman2514.81718.2029111531
Kasey Kahne252117.917.602914155
 FastTop 15PassAvg.HighLowPos.Laps LedRating
DriverLapsRateDiff.RatingRatingRatingDiff.Pts/RaceRange
Martin Truex Jr111794%412215070.20.721.2079.8
Jimmie Johnson42671%1093.5133.653.21.34.8380.4
Kevin Harvick79289%6116.4146.162.2-2.115.5083.9
Brad Keselowski36782%297.5130.429.7-5.33.32100.7
Kyle Busch60181%0105.3129.869-0.66.8760.8
Denny Hamlin23580%-593.3136.955-53.5581.9
Austin Dillon9363%080.4104.435.9-0.50.1468.5
Chase Elliott30778%1295.7129.135.20.82.4193.9
Joey Logano25475%-293.9140.644.9-1.93.1895.7
Kyle Larson43274%1395.1140.151.11.55.3989
Kurt Busch13177%188.9113.967.7-2.51.6846.2
Ryan Blaney20959%083.6128.446.7-2.42.4281.7
Jamie McMurray4666%481.4103.846.7-0.60.0557.1
Ryan Newman7848%-575.499.938.5-3.40.3161.4
Kasey Kahne6444%372.896.241.83.40.0554.4

DraftKings Points Changes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway

 17 RaceSeasonDK Pts +/-
DriverDK Pts.Avg DK Pts.Season AVG
AJ Allmendinger1923.30-4.30
Aric Almirola4628.7417.26
Austin Dillon17.527.60-10.10
Brad Keselowski89.7541.6448.11
Chase Elliott55.540.3015.20
Chris Buescher2326.64-3.64
Clint Bowyer3728.288.72
Cole Whitt2119.141.86
Daniel Suarez1628.62-12.62
David Ragan1824.04-6.04
Denny Hamlin47.539.967.54
Erik Jones2228.86-6.86
Gray Gaulding1116.26-5.26
Jamie McMurray40.526.8413.66
Jeffrey Earnhardt1614.281.72
Jimmie Johnson58.2534.1524.10
Joey Logano50.7532.4318.32
Kasey Kahne27.524.982.52
Kevin Harvick-1243.84-55.84
Kurt Busch226.68-24.68
Kyle Busch1355.94-42.94
Kyle Larson4847.340.66
Martin Truex Jr115.562.7652.74
Matt DiBenedetto2318.934.07
Michael McDowell34.524.859.65
Paul Menard20.526.01-5.51
Ricky Stenhouse Jr727.76-20.76
Ryan Blaney35.525.549.96
Ryan Newman3130.920.08
Trevor Bayne4126.2414.76
Ty Dillon26.529.62-3.12
  Average +/-14.60

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Value Drivers

 Top 10 Value  Bottom 10 Value 
1Chris Buescher6.6737Joey Gase0.00
2Ryan Blaney6.3636Cole Custer0.02
3Michael McDowell6.2435Jimmie Johnson1.43
4Austin Dillon6.2034Daniel Suarez1.96
5Paul Menard5.6233Alex Bowman2.37
6Joey Logano5.4932Ty Dillon2.54
7Ryan Newman5.3831Erik Jones2.84
8Jeffrey Earnhardt5.3230Ricky Stenhouse Jr3.04
9Gray Gaulding5.2829Kasey Kahne3.13
10AJ Allmendinger5.2128Kyle Busch3.42

Drivers to watch this week:

Martin Truex Jr.: Truex Jr. is the defending winner of this race and looked to get into form a bit at Atlanta last week as he had the fastest car on the track on for portions of the race. Aside from the win, he has two top-fives and four top-15s in the last four races here with 153 laps led, good for fifth-most. He has the third-highest average driver rating at 112.6, but has the highest high rating overall at 147.6 in the last four races. Everyone knows of his dominance at this distance in the last few years and his championship run from last year kicked off here at this race.

Brad Keselowski: Keselowski is the only two-time winner here in the last four races and the only one in the field over the last 10 races. He also has the best average finish at 3.5 in the last four but 15.4 over the last 10. Four top-10s are the reason for the high average finish of late but he also has the most laps led here with 175 since 2014. Also having the most fast laps and the best driver rating at 121.8 in that span doesn’t hurt his cause either. With him being $1,100 cheaper than Truex and providing a 4.67 value compared to a 4.03, he might be the higher owner driver.

Jimmie Johnson: JJ has long been known to be a very good 1.5-mile driver and this track is no exception. He has two top-10a and three top-15s in the last four races and the second-most laps led with 174, one less than Brad’s total. He has finished in the top-10 50% of the time over the last 10 races including a win and the most laps led with 385 overall. Johnson hasn’t had the smoothest start to the season so far with a rough Daytona speed weeks and then an up and down race at Atlanta, but he generally does well in the west-coast swing.

Paul Menard: Menard is a bit of a surprise driver this week but his numbers warrant being talked about here. He has a top-five and three top-15s in the last four races place a decent +6.2 position differential that is actually second-best in the field behind only Trevor Bayne. With this category lacking this week, Menard’s mark isn’t a bad target for your lineup especially at a cheaper cost to roster. It’s not just over the four-year run since 2014 either, he has the best mark in the field over the last 10 races here.

Kyle & Kurt Busch: The Brothers Busch are a joint talking point this week since this is both of their home track. Raised in Vegas they always get excited to come home for the week and have their friends and family come out to watch some racing, however their results aren’t always the greatest. Kyle is the better of the two with a top-five and two top-15s in the last three races and 90 laps led, but Kurt lags behind with just one top-10 in his last three with 32 laps run out front. That’s not encouraging history from two guys who are usually near the top of the salary list like Kyle is again this week at $10,000. Over the last 20 races (10 total races) they have one win, Kyle, and Kurt doesn’t even make the top-15 list this week.