The Zero RB strategy became a hot tactic starting around 2014 and continues to be a strategy used in fantasy, but does it work? Too many things have to go right for it to work and it is a strategy you should not look to use this season. Why? What makes Running back more important than Wide receiver? As I stated in the Fantasy Alarm Mock Draft piece, I am against the Zero RB approach and the data supports avoiding it.

Standard vs. PPR and RB vs. WR

If you play in a standard scoring league than the Zero RB strategy should be completely avoided. What makes the zero RB strategy seem like a usable strategy in PPR leagues is that you can grab pass catching backs in the later rounds, but in standard scoring these types of backs are not nearly as valuable. In standard leagues you need your bell-cow running backs who are going to tote the rock 200+ times and find the end zone five or more times. In standard scoring the running back position can put up a much larger point total, as shown using 2017 as a reference. The top scoring running back from last season – Todd Gurley – scored 319.30 points, while the top scoring wide receiver – DeAndre Hopkins – scored 213.80. That’s nearly a 106 point difference from two guys who are both first rounders in this year’s draft. Seven running backs scored over 200 points, while only two wide receivers managed to top that mark. The top ten running back scorers averaged 225.4 points for the year, while the top ten wide receivers averaged only 171.2. The difference in points between the top-tier running backs and top-tier wide receivers is a large margin, showing the importance of grabbing a top back or two. However, when we look at 11-through-20 for both positions the difference isn’t as drastic. As noted above, the difference between the average top ten running backs and top ten wide receivers was 84 points. Running backs 11-through-20 averaged 153.6 points for the year while wide receivers averaged 140.2. Not only does the difference drop to only 13 points, but we also see a much larger drop at the running back position from the top ten than we do at receiver. The running back position drops from 225.4 to 153.6 – a difference of 72 points – while the wide receiver position only drops from 171.2 to 140.2 – a difference of 31 points.  By looking at these numbers we can quickly tell just how important going RB-early in the draft is. Do NOT take the zero RB approach under any circumstance in a standard scoring league.

Okay, since the Zero RB approach is so bad in standard leagues, it must work in PPR leagues, right? Let’s take a look. PPR formats do open the door to more usable running backs, with guys like Duke Johnson , Christian McCaffrey , Theo Riddick , Tarik Cohen , and James White becoming stronger assets because of their pass-catching abilities. The top scoring running back last season in PPR – Todd Gurley – scored 383.3 points, while the top scoring wide receiver – Antonio Brown – scored 310.3. That is a difference of 73 points, still a wide margin but not quite the 106-point difference that was shown in standard scoring. The top ten scoring running backs averaged 286.3 points for the year, while the top ten scoring wide receivers averaged 264.8. While the difference isn’t as large as it was in standard scoring, running backs still outscored the wide receivers. When we look at 11-through-20 for both positions we see a bit of a change. The running backs averaged 191.4, while the wide receivers averaged 212.2. The top ten running backs outscored the 11-through-20 running backs by 94.9 points on average, while the top ten wide receivers only outscored the 11-through-20 wide receivers by 52.6 points on average. The running back drop-off being so large again shows us the importance of grabbing a top running back or two. Once again, the data shows us to NOT take the zero RB approach, even in PPR formats.

Banking on Injuries

If you take the Zero RB approach you are almost banking on other running backs to be injured so that your mid-to-late round running backs become startable options on your roster. One of the reasons people believe the Zero RB approach is a good strategy is because running backs are so prone to injury and they will be quick to point out David Johnson ’s fantasy crippling injury last season, but wide receivers get hurt too. Odell Beckham , Allen Robinson , Julian Edelman , Cameron Meredith , and Quincy Enunwa all suffered devastating injuries last season, with Beckham and Robinson both going very early in drafts. Yes, David Johnson ’s injury was a big one, as was Dalvin Cook ’s, but we saw fellow early round backs Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley , Melvin Gordon , Jordan Howard , Leonard Fournette , LeSean McCoy , Devonta Freeman , and Kareem Hunt (early rounder after the Spencer Ware injury) all make it through the season practically injury free. Fournette played the least of the bunch and still managed to play 13 games. Why bank on injuries happening to improve your roster when you can simply just draft one or two of the top flight running bcks and not need injuries to happen for your team to improve? The chances of you correctly guessing which running backs are going to be injured during any given year are very slim.

All of the data shows us that the Zero RB approach is something to avoid using. Top flight running backs outscore top flight wide receivers and they also outscore their middle-tier position mates by a larger margin. Yes, you can win a league using the Zero RB strategy, but that doesn’t make it SMART. Unless your league has funky scoring settings, grab yourself an elite running back or two in the first three rounds and let them carry you to a championship this year FANation!