Fantasy Football Waiver Wire: Week 10
Dan Malin examines the ownership percentages and recent trends to bring you his top waiver wire adds heading into Week Ten of the fantasy football season!
I thought we would finally have a relatively tame week in fantasy football. The injuries weren’t terrible save for David Johnson sustaining a concussion and Justin Jackson getting injured very early, thus screwing several people in DFS. I don’t believe we’ll know more on McCaffrey until Tuesday afternoon, maybe even Wednesday. But naturally if you held on to Mike Davis , kudos to you. If Mike Davis is available be sure to use the top waiver priority on him. He will not be featured below simply because he’s over 70% owned across numerous formats, but it looks like he could be in line for a great workload this weekend. If he’s available in your league, he’s a top priority.
As always I’ll be in the chat around 8:00pm ET Tuesday night and I’ll be logging off promptly at 10:00pm ET. I say this now but you all usually persuade me to stay on a little longer. However, if you’re a West Coaster or want quicker help with your waiver claims take advantage of this email address: firstname.lastname@example.org because I will have that email open at work all day. A few of you last week took advantage and I like to think I was pretty quick to respond. This email can be used for waiver questions on Tuesday or even if you have start/sit or DFS questions later in the week. I’m only in the NFL Seasonal Chat on Tuesday nights and the weekends so if you need some help, don’t hesitate to reach out and I’ll respond in a timely fashion.
This isn’t the sexiest group of players this week. Honestly it’s a pretty ho-hum week for waivers so maybe we don’t go overboard with the FAAB bids unless Mike Davis is out there. But there are still some depth pieces we can consider and I’ll offer up some quarterbacks to stream for the Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan owners that are reading this.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) Tua was not limited one bit on Sunday as he made his first start on the West coast. He only attempted 28 passes, but he threw for 248 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He also added 30+ yards on the ground. If you play in a deeper league and haven’t had good quarterback play all year then Tua is a must add for you. He gets a fantastic matchup this week against the Chargers who seem to let all their opponents put points on the board. I’m looking at Tua to possibly eclipse 300 passing yards for the first time in his career Sunday, especially if Joey Bosa is out again for Los Angeles. FAAB Bid: 10%
Jared Goff (LAR) If looking for a streamer this week, Jared Goff might be the way to go. He gets the coveted matchup against the Seattle Seahawks defense who are the worst in the league against quarterbacks as they allow 26.7 fantasy points per game, and that’s in four-point per passing touchdown leagues. Goff has a plethora of weapons at his disposal with Cooper Kupp , Robert Woods , Gerald Everett , Josh Reynolds , etc. Even if the Rams get blown out or keep it competitive, this is a spot where Goff has a 20-point floor. FAAB Bid: 7-8% Don’t go overboard just for a streamer.
Derek Carr (LV) / Drew Lock (DEN) Choose your adventure! These two face off against each other this week and they’re both in play! Carr has been a pretty popular waiver recommendation but the fantasy production hasn’t been great the last few games. He’s definitely taken on more of a “game manager” role lately with just 47 pass attempts over his last two games, but overall he hasn’t been terrible. And Drew Lock is a quarterback who has been throwing it down field more and more. Once we get passed the fact that Denver runs a pretty conservative offense to start, they open things up more as the game progresses. Either that, or they fall behind and are forced to throw more. Lock is coming off his first 300+ yard performance this year and he’s attempted 40+ passes in three straight games. Lock may have the higher ceiling than Carr and he’s easily more available as well. FAAB Bid: 6-7%
Zack Moss (BUF) I was a little surprised we didn’t see more from the Buffalo backfield. Between Moss and Devin Singletary they collectively had 11 carries, but Moss far out-touched Singletary. Moss was fortunate to find the end zone and he caught two passes for 30 yards as well. If you started him last week, you should be fine with that production. This week, Buffalo gets another decent matchup as well against Arizona who typically allow over 126 rushing yards per game to their opponents. This game could be a touchdown-fest and if the Bills get the ball inside the ten-yard line we know that it’ll be in Moss’s hands, not Singletary’s. FAAB Bid: 13-14%
Duke Johnson (HOU) It really comes down to how much you want to spend on a potential one-week rental, but Duke is going to be heavily targeted this week. David Johnson left Sunday’s game after being evaluated for a concussion and Duke stepped in and received just about every meaningful running back touch. He returned about 17 points in PPR formats on 20 touches so, naturally, if David is going to miss time then we have ourselves a logical waiver target here. Once DJ left the game, Duke saw 52-of-64 snaps and lined up as a receiver on eight plays as well. You can’t argue against the potential workload. FAAB Bid: 12-13%
Jordan Wilkins (IND) I know there are many in the fantasy community that are concerned about Jonathan Taylor. I’m not as optimistic as I was a week ago, but I also don’t think the sky is falling. Taylor's ball security issues may cost him touches, but I do believe they want to keep going back to him. He lost work to Wilkins on Sunday but Wilkins didn’t do much with it (39 yards on 11 carries in a tough matchup). But if Wilkins is going to be receiving ten-to-twelve touches per game then that warrants a roster spot. I don’t know if I want to trust Wilkins on a short week against Tennessee, but perhaps your more desperate than I am. FAAB Bid: 12%
J.D. McKissic (WFT) If you didn’t have Dalvin Cook or Christian McCaffrey in your lineup this past week, there was a good chance you were frustrated with the performance(s) of your running back(s). However, J.D. McKissic went out there and had himself quite the day. 14 targets will certainly help, but he caught nine passes for 65 yards and finished with over 17 PPR points as the third-best running back in PPR formats last week. I wrote in the Hot Takes article that I don’t think this is necessarily a trend for Washington. Alex Smith and McKissic seemingly had a connection going in this game, but the game script required them to throw more and Smith didn’t really go deep too much. The other thing we like about McKissic is that he is the third down guy. Antonio Gibson only has a touch or two on third down so we definitely love that opportunity for McKissic. The Giants gave him the short passes underneath and Smith took advantage. With the Lions, Bengals, and Cowboys on tap I still believe those matchups cater more to Antonio Gibson but with Smith under center I do think McKissic gets a little extra work. FAAB Bid: 12%
Wayne Gallman (NYG) Say what you will about the Giants, but with Devonta Freeman out Gallman has managed to find the end zone in three straight games now. He’s been getting 13-15 touches per game in that span as well and that’s borderline RB2 territory if examining strictly the workload. Gallman has a tough matchup this week as the Giants are hosting Philadelphia, who are coming off their bye. Philly is allowing nearly a touchdown per game to opposing running backs, but the yardage will be hard to come by. FAAB Bid: 10%
Kalen Ballage (LAC) I can’t believe it’s actually come to this, but Ballage is worth an add in deeper leagues. It is a nice story after he was turned into a joke by Adam Gase, but Ballage is coming off a good enough game where he found the end zone and looked pretty good at times. It was a little surprising that Joshua Kelley didn’t get more work. Plus, we need to keep in mind that Austin Ekeler will be coming back in the not-too-distant-future. Keep in mind Troymaine Pope didn’t play in this game either so once Jackson went down, the Bolts were left with just Ballage and Kelley to run the ball. Don’t go crazy with this bid as Los Angeles has to dance with Miami this week and they just held Chase Edmonds to 70 yards on 25 carries. FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Curtis Samuel (CAR) If Christian McCaffrey does have to miss a game or two, I really like how this shapes up for Curtis Samuel . Sure, it means Mike Davis gets more work as well but Samuel was a receiver they were gladly letting run the ball a couple times each game as well. He has 22 carries through eight games and he’s found the end zone four times over his last three games. He’s also caught 19-of-20 targets over that span as well. He’s getting a heavier workload than D.J. Moore , which is a tough pill to swallow, but Carolina is getting creative in how they involve Samuel. FAAB Bid: 12-13%
John Brown (BUF) I’m seeing Brown available in just under 50% of ESPN leagues so he’s absolutely worth mentioning now that he’s back from injury. I was hopeful that Cole Beasley would still have a role once Brown returned and that just simply wasn’t the case, at least not on Sunday. Brown saw 11 targets at full strength against Seattle and the Bills travel to Arizona this week in a very tempting matchup for fantasy. He came just shy of 100 receiving yards last week, but look for him to potentially top that this week if he and Josh Allen connect for a deep touchdown. On the other side of the ball in this game is Christian Kirk who has the same availability in some leagues as Brown and he’s caught five touchdowns his last three games. Similar to Brown, he can take the top off opposing defenses and find the end zone any given week. FAAB Bid: 11-12%
Jakobi Meyers (NE) With the Patriots lacking a few weapons on offense, Jakobi Meyers turned out to be their top receiving option Monday night against the Jets. For the second straight week he saw double-digit targets and turned them into a dozen catches for 169 yards. Now it was against the Jets of all teams so don’t expect that kind of production next week against Baltimore. However, we should expect elevated targets at the very least which makes him worth a grab off waivers. Remember, don’t chase last week’s production in fantasy. We should be looking at opportunity and that is certainly there for Meyers going forward. On the Jets side of the ball, Breshad Perriman had a huge night with two touchdowns. He’s not as much of a necessity as Meyers is since the Jets are on bye next week, but he’s worth monitoring for possibly next week’s waivers. FAAB Bid: 10-12%
K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick (DEN) By all means, if Jerry Jeudy is out there he is absolutely the priority target over Hamler and Patrick. But we saw a mini-breakout game from Hamler, while Jeudy will get all the accolades from this performance. Hamler caught six-of-ten targets for 75 yards and now faces the Raiders who aren’t exactly great at stopping opposing wide receivers. While most of the attention will be directed to Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant going forward, Hamler is a nice under-the-radar receiving option each week as long as the targets are there for him. For Patrick, he actually had himself a fine day. He caught only four passes, but he did see nine targets and he found the end zone. Patrick is the better red zone target, while Hamler is better for volume and moving the ball between the 20’s. Hamler is 5’9” and Patrick is 6’4”. Pick your poison. FAAB Bid: 7-8%
Nelson Agholor (LV) This guy just seems to find the end zone each week. He’s scored in four of his last five games and the upcoming schedule doesn’t seem too awful for him either. Next week the Raiders host the Broncos, then the Chiefs in Week 11, followed by the Falcons and Jets. Do any of those teams scare you from a fantasy perspective? The matchups are either inviting or the game script will call for more passing. And we already saw the Raiders drop 40 points on Kansas City earlier in the year where Agholor found the end zone. The targets will fluctuate, but with my faith in Henry Ruggs essentially gone this year, I’m investing a little more in Agholor. FAAB Bid: 7-8%
Darnell Mooney (CHI) I know he plays for the Bears but the targets have been there for him. He’s available in over 80% of leagues and he has seven straight games with at least five targets and he’s coming off a game against Tennessee where 11 targets were thrown his way. He just didn’t manage to do too much with them. But Mooney gets a very good matchup against Minnesota, who give up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. FAAB Bid: 7-8%
Danny Amendola (DET) Amendola is one of those guys that is eternally on the waiver wire. The ownership never budges to the point where he no longer qualifies so he’ll always have some PPR appeal. I was brave enough to use him in my Cash lineup in DFS and was pretty relieved that it paid off. He reeled in seven catches on ten targets this past weekend for 77 yards. He now has three straight games with at least 50 receiving yards. That’s not great by most metrics, but with Kenny Golladay possibly out, the Lions have to get creative with how they distribute the ball. Marvin Jones Jr. only saw four targets, but found the end zone. T.J. Hockenson saw eight targets and scored as well. But it was Amendola who saw ten targets. Amendola’s stock takes a slight hit if Stafford has to miss time with a concussion, but it’s possible this veteran wideout is in line for extra targets in Week 10 against Washington. FAAB Bid: 6-7%
Dallas Goedert (PHI) I’m kicking myself for dropping this guy in a couple leagues, but with the Eagles coming off their bye week and (seemingly) getting healthier, this is a great time to grab Goedert. Against Dallas in Week 8 he only had one target, but he was on the field for a majority of the offensive snaps and ran plenty of routes. Now that he’s had an extra week to recover, he’s facing the Giants who allowed Richard Rodgers to catch six passes for 85 yards back in Week 7. If he’s available in your league and you need tight end help, Goedert is my favorite waiver target this week. FAAB Bid: 14%
Austin Hooper (CLE) If Goedert isn’t available in your league, then Austin Hooper is the next-best option at tight end. Prior to his injury he had 23 targets over his last three games catching five passes in each game over that span. Odell Beckham Jr. is out for the year so this should lead to Hooper being a steady option in Cleveland’s offense. Kevin Stefanski has already said he expects Hooper to return this week, which we should believe since Hooper was looking better at practice last week. FAAB Bid: 12-13%
Jordan Reed (SF) It’s not the prettiest offense right now, but Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers will probably still keep their tight ends involved. So this bodes well for Reed and Ross Dwelley . The 49ers have been hit with a barrage of injuries on both sides of the ball and remember, Reed is no stranger to injuries or concussions. But he’s looked good at times filling in for George Kittle , who may not return until Week 16 or 17 if he even does come back. I’d much rather target Goedert or Hooper if they’re available, but Reed should be on your radar in deeper leagues. FAAB Bid: 6-7%
Logan Thomas (WFT) With Kyle Allen done for the year, Alex Smith has been named the starting quarterback for Washington. Thomas’ job as a tight end is relatively safe and with Smith under center I still think he could see five-to-six targets per game. Smith may not go as deep as Kyle Allen did but there’s still work for Terry McLaurin and Thomas. What I’m most curious about is who would be listed as the backup quarterback. Does the team give Dwayne Haskins that opportunity? Most likely. However, it’s pretty clear Washington is ready to move on from Haskins. Logan Thomas did play quarterback in college so if anything were to happen to Alex Smith , maybe we see Thomas gets snaps under center? Who knows, it’s a wild guess on my part. The job probably goes to Haskins. Either way, Thomas is a good enough tight end you can get on the cheap. FAAB Bid: 5%
New Orleans Saints – The Saints put together one hell of a performance on both sides of the ball Sunday night. The defense returned 16 fantasy points against a very good offense and they forced three interceptions after coming into this game with only four. The pass rush was looking good also so congratulations if you were brave enough to start this defense. In Week 10 they’ll host the 49ers. San Francisco’s injuries, COVID-19 circumstances, and disappointing season are well documented. We can look to stream the Saints with confidence this week.
Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles were dropped in about 30% of leagues and they visit the Giants Sunday afternoon. The game actually opened with the over/under sitting at 40.5 but that’s been bet up to 44 as of Tuesday morning. Given the higher scores we’ve seen this year that’s not a surprising trend, but we’re still looking at one of the lower expected scoring totals on the slate. Prior to their bye week the Eagles defense had allowed just 30 points to their last two opponents and they forced seven sacks and six turnovers over those two games as well.
Miami Dolphins – I’m a little weary that maybe this is the week the Dolphins come back down to Earth. They’ve had the ability to return double-digit fantasy points as we saw against the Rams when they came into town a couple weeks ago. This time, Miami will host the other Los Angeles team and Justin Herbert is averaging 300 passing yards and three total touchdowns per game. And this isn’t even his first time visiting the East coast. His previous starts in Carolina and Jacksonville resulted in 677 total passing yards, five total touchdowns, and one interception. But Miami’s secondary has stepped up lately and this defense is finally playing to Brian Flores’ expectations. They may be worth taking a shot on in deeper leagues.
Tennessee Titans – I’m curious to see if this D/ST is real or if Sunday’s performance was just a flash in the pan. They did play the Bears, but if there were ever a follow-up performance in store for Tennessee it would come against Indianapolis, at home, on a short week. The Titans traded for Desmond King who scored a touchdown in his debut with the Titans and this is typically a defense that we’ve seen get progressively better as the season progresses under Mike Vrabel. Perhaps they’re now starting to turn the corner. Tennessee is favored by less than a field goal and the over/under has been getting bet down.