NFL DFS Contrarian Corner - Week 17 (Video)

Brandon Marianne Lee brings us her top contrarian DFS plays for Week 17 of the NFL season

Brandon Marianne Lee

Published Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:40 am (EST)

NFL Archive

NFL DFS Contrarian Corner - Week 17 (Video)

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P. Mahomes - QB

FOX's Jay Glazer reports Patrick Mahomes (toe) has been fitted with a "special orthotic" for the AFC Championship Game against the Bills.

Per Glazer, the Chiefs are "very concerned," and Mahomes could require offseason surgery. Glazer confirms the toe was a bigger issue during practice this week than Mahomes' concussion, which apparently wasn't actually a concussion. Scrambling for first downs like mad in 2020, Mahomes' foot could loom large as the Chiefs look to repeat as AFC champions.

Added 2:53 pm (EST)

Jay Glazer on Twitter

$9000

$7600

$8100

C. Edwards-Helaire - RB

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip) will be active for the AFC Championship Game against the Bills.

The report comes via FOX's Jay Glazer. It will be CEH's first appearance since Week 15. With Le'Veon Bell (knee) looking doubtful, Chiefs backfield work will fall to CEH and Darrel Williams. It has been Williams who has taken the lead in CEH's absence, and it will probably remain Williams between the tackles against the Bills. CEH's touches are extremely difficult to project following the long layoff, but he will not lack for DFS upside in a game with a 54.5 over/under.

Added 2:48 pm (EST)

Jay Glazer on Twitter

$6200

$5000

$5600

G. Olsen - TE

SEA

Greg Olsen is retiring after 14 seasons in the NFL.

35-year-old Olsen announced his retirement on FOX's NFC Championship Game pre-game show, and confirmed he will begin working for the network in 2021. The No. 31 overall pick of the 2007 Draft, Olsen was inconsistent his first few years in the league under Bears OCs Ron Turner and Mike Martz. A 2011 trade to Carolina and Cam Newton immediately turned him into an All-Pro-type player, one who made three Pro Bowls and caught a whopping 742 career passes. That total is fifth all time amongst tight ends. It would have been much higher if not for a spate of late-career foot issues, injuries that limited him to 41 games over the past four years. That, of course, is the nature of football. Olsen will probably end up on the outside looking in of the Hall-of-Fame, but he should at least generate some discussion.

Added 2:22 pm (EST)

N/A

$3500

J. Love - QB

Packers declared QB Jordan Love, CB Ka'dar Hollman, S Vernon Scott, CB Josh Jackson, LB Jonathan Garvin, TE Jace Sternberger, and DL Kingsley Keke inactive for their Conference Championship game against the Bucs.

CB Kevin King is active for this game which should help the Green Bay defense contain Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Expect to see a lot of Jaire Alexander covering Mike Evans with Godwin getting moved into the slot frequently.

Added 1:40 pm (EST)

$5000

$4000

$3000

D. Watson - QB

HOU

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports Texans QB Deshaun Watson's thinking "is not expected to change" based on who Houston hires as their next head coach.

Watson has made his grievances with the organization known and an attempt to placate him with a specific head coach is apparently off the table. A Watson trade is looking increasingly likely by the day. The Jets are reportedly his preferred landing spot with Miami coming in second. Both teams have a young quarterback who could be moved plus a bevy of first-round draft picks. Watson thinks highly of New York's new head coach, Robert Saleh, and wants to play under him for Gang Green. Watson's presence would be a massive upgrade for the New York fantasy options. However, the lack of talent at receiver and tight end does make the landing spot less desirable for Watson's fantasy outlook.

Added 12:52 pm (EST)

Chris Mortensen

N/A

P. Mahomes - QB

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is dealing with turf toe in his left foot but is not expected to need surgery after the season.

Rapsheet added that Mahomes will meet with a specialist after the season to ensure that surgery isn't needed. Mahomes will not be perfectly healthy for the Chiefs' AFC Championship game versus the Bills but even a less than 100 percent Mahomes is still capable of greatness. He did miss a few throws late in last week's game but still played well. The biggest difference will be his lack of running ability. Mahomes hit another level as a runner in the playoffs last year but this injury makes it unlikely that he'll repeat the same performances this postseason. Mahomes ceiling takes a small hit but he remains the top QB for DFS purposes this week.

Added 10:14 am (EST)

Ian Rapoport on Twitter

$9000

$7600

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A. Brown - WR

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports the Buccaneers want WR Antonio Brown back for the 2021 season.

Brown is out for the Bucs' NFC Championship game against the Packers so he could miss their final game of the year if Tampa Bay doesn't come out on top. Regardless, Brown has played well after missing over a year of football. He closed out the regular season with 483 yards and four scores on 45 receptions while playing in just eight games. Browns and Chris Godwin are free agents this year so it's possible that the Bucs wanting to bring Brown back is a sign that the team is willing to let Godwin walk. However, the market for Brown could be tepid given his recent history of off-field issues and he is beloved by Tom Brady so his status could also have little effect on Godwin. If Godwin does walk and Brown stays, the ADP spike for Brown would reach critical mass.

Added 9:20 am (EST)

Ian Rapoport on Twitter

$5800

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S. Watkins - WR

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports the Chiefs "don't sound optimistic" WR Sammy Watkins (calf, questionable) will play in the Conference Championship game against the Bills.

Watkins got in a handful of limited practices this week and the team was initially optimistic that he would be able to play against Buffalo. It's possible that his calf issue got worse over the weekend. Watkins will still test out his calf in pre-game warmups but that rarely results in a player who isn't expected to play becoming active. Mecole Hardman finished third on the Chiefs in routes last week and drew four targets plus a rush attempt. He gets the biggest bump with Watkins presumed out while Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle both enter the tournament conversation for DFS purposes. Both receivers saw three targets last week.

Added 9:11 am (EST)

Adam Schefter on Twitter

$5400

$3800

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