* The Royals activated Jarrod Dyson from the DL Tuesday so we thought we would re-run an article written by Ray Flowers this preseason.
Billy Hamilton can run. However, I said/wrote it about 946 times last spring, the guy cannot hit. What he did last year clearly proved that to be the case as he “hit” .226 with a vomit inducing .563 OPS. Despite that fact he ran, and that’s all anyone really cares about, as he stole 57 bases while being caught on eight times, an impressive 87.7 percent success rate. His value is all in his legs since there is little reason to think he will suddenly morph into an effective hitter in 2016.
That growth into becoming an effective hitter in 2016 is further hampered by a lingering shoulder issue. Hamilton had shoulder surgery in late September in what was described as an arthroscopic procedure. He was given a 4-6 week timeframe for recovery. Well, as of a few days ago he reported that his shoulder still wasn’t 100 percent though he thinks he should be fine at the start of spring training. That sounds alright, but if it was supposed to take 4-6 weeks for him to return to full workouts, why is he still building up strength 16+ weeks later? Just some food for thought.
Now the meat of this piece.
Is everyone missing the boat with Hamilton in that they are so sure he will be a start whereas a guy like, well specifically a guy in Jarrod Dyson, is routinely a reserve round selection? I’m being serious here. I think it plausible that based on cost, and your return on investment, that Dyson is a much better option/value in 2016. It might even be that Dyson will perform as well as Hamilton – cost excluded. Before you call me a moron, something I hear a lot, let’s look at some data.
1 – Hamilton is still dealing with getting that shoulder back in shape.
2 – Dyson might be on the right side of a platoon in right field with Paulo Orlando – meaning that Dyson will face righties, Orlando lefties according to manager Ned Yost. Dyson has never had 300 at-bats in a season but if he’s playing against righties he should be able to pick up 400+ at-bats.
3 – The following ADP data is taken from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship.
Hamilton: 73.75 ADP (as high as 46, low as 108), 22nd OF
J. Dyson: 324.49 ADP (as high as 129, low as 466), 77th OF
Look at the massive difference in cost.
4 – ‘But Ray, Hamilton is a better hitter.’ Simply not true. Check out their career numbers.
Hamilton: .242/.287/.330
J. Dyson: .255/.320/.343
Dyson bests Hamilton in average, OBP (by a significant margin) and in SLG. Check it out again if you don’t believe it.
5 – ‘But Ray, Hamilton is a much bigger steals threat.’ Is that true? According to per 162 game data that is an accurate statement.
Per 162 Games
Hamilton: 80 runs, 73 steals
J. Dyson: 60 runs, 53 steals
However, let’s look at things a bit differently. Why? Because it’s not really fair to look at Dyson on a per game basis since he’s so often appeared only late in games. Let’s look at things per plate appearance.
Hamilton averages 3.90 plate appearances per contest
Dyson averages 2.71 plate appearances per contest
Let’s normalize things to a full season of work.
If we give both man a season of 500 plate appearances, here’s now the numbers play out.
Hamilton would average 63 runs and 58.0 steals.
Dyson would average 68.6 runs and 60.7 steals.
This is the money shot if you will.
On a per plate appearance average Jarrod Dyson scores more runs and steals more bases than Billy Hamilton.
So I ask you again – are you still convinced that Hamilton is the better add on draft day? Even if you’re still in Hamilton’s corner don’t you have to admit that given the cost it’s logical, in fact nearly certain, that if both men are healthy in 2016 that Dyson will return a better value based upon his draft day cost?
Something to consider as you put your team together in 2016.
*Spurred by a conversation I had with Kyle Elfrink on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio.
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