DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting offering from the Alarm is the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters – Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.

 

OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK

Daily Lineups

Daily Projections

Player News

DFS MLB Playbook

TEHERAN COMING AROUND?

Last year Julio Teheran had 14 victories, a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP as one of the better pitchers in the National League. This year not so much. Julio has nine wins, has seen his ERA swell to 4.29, and his WHIP is slightly worse than league average at 1.30. He’s also walking a full batter more per nine than last season at 3.09, and his homer rate is also up from 0.90 per nine to 1.20. Not even close to what was expected, but…

In five starts in August Julio has looked like the 2014 version. Over those five trips to the bump he owns a 2.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 7.91 strikeouts per nine and he’s walked a total of five batters. This is the guy we thought we were drafting back in March.

Given his overall numbers some reluctance is still warranted with Teheran, but I can unequivocally say that he shouldn’t be on waivers in mixed leagues at the moment and I really like what I’ve seen of late.

WHAT TO DO WITH MEDLEN?

Kris Medlen had Tommy John surgery in 2010.

Medlen had Tommy John surgery again in 2014.

Disastrous, or is it? Nope as Medlen continues to perform like The Little Engine That Could.

Medlen has looked sharp with the Royals and he’s been inserted into the starting rotation creating some excitement. How pumped should you be? Let’s look at workload.

2010: 107.2 innings
2011: 2.1 innings
2012: 151.1 innings
2013: 197 innings
2014: zero
2015: 59.2 innings

The truth is that it is anyone’s guess how many bullets he has in his arm this season. Through eight outings, one start, Medlen has a 3.10 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and an 8.85 K/9 mark. (1) He won’t keep the K-pace up. He’s never had a mark over 7.83. (2) He has a .265 BABIP, below his .291 career mark. (3) His GB/FB ratio is just 1.05 well below his 1.44 career rate as a result of a 41 percent ground ball mark, well below his 46 percent career mark. (4) His current fastball velocity of 91.5 mph on his fastball according to PITCHf/x is the highest of his career. Does that make sense to you? Partially that has to do with him pitching an inning or two out of the pen for sure, but this guy’s fastball is 89.7 mph for his career.

You can add and roll with Medlen. He doesn’t cost ya anything, so why not. Realize though that he could have a setback, lose the feel for his pitches, or struggle at any point, so keep a close eye on the results, and reports, from each of his starts.

Dominate Your League with the 2015 Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide.Dominate your fantasy football league with the Fantasy Alarm team.  This is not your typical draft guide with the same players in every rookies, sleepers and bust columns.  Every Coaching System broken down.  Every Offensive Line broken down.  30+ winning strategies. 500+ players ranked and updated every day.  Check out the Preview Today!

TIME TO GIVE UP ON SAMARDZIJA?

Jeff Samardzija has a huge arm and is coming off a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP season last year. Things haven’t gone according to plan at all in his return to Chicago as the White Sox righty is 8-10 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. He’s still not walking anyone at 1.89 per nine (a batter below his career norm), but the strikeouts have plummeted from 8.3 per nine last year down to 6.84 this season. Oddly, his swinging strike rate is 10.0 percent, just slightly below his 10.5 percent career mark, it’s just that he’s not able to put batters away. Part of the blame goes to the slider. The last four years batters have failed to hit .210 off the pitch. This year they are bashing the pitch to the tune of a .298 average and .809 OPS (career .646). Moreover, he’s 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.75 WHIP over his last five starts. Dreadful.

Can’t be trusting him in any format. He’s been so bad that if you’re in a 10-team league you can drop him, should have dropped him actually, and it likely makes sense to do the same thing in a 12-teamer as well.

KELLY SUDDENLY CRUISING?

Joe Kelly was a mess. Over his first 14 starts this season he had a 5.67 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, not to mention a 2-5 record. Hello minorleagues. Obviously he figured a few things out in the minors as he’s made seven starts since being recalled and in that time the numbers are 5-1 with a 4.23 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Even better is his work in August as he’s made five starts going 5-0. That alone is pretty amazing. But look at the ratios as well: 3.03 ERA, 1.31 WHIP. OK, the WHIP is still worse than league average, but the record and ERA will play. It should also be pointed out that he’s allowed three earned runs over his last three starts. He’s even chipped in a 7.89 K/9 mark over his last five starts.

Kelly has a huge arm. He’s hot. He’s been extremely inconsistent for the majority of his career. Break the glass only if you have a high pain tolerance.

FELDMAN DOING WELL – REALLY?

Scott Feldman has made 17 starts for the Astros this season going 5-5 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Pretty tough to be much more league average than that. So why note the righty at all? His work of late of course. Over his last six starts Feldman has won just one game, but the ratios impress. Seriously. Over the six starts he is the owner of a 1.80 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP. That’s crushing it, and it includes a current three start run in which he’s allowed two earned runs. Alas, even in the run of excellent work he’s not been a great fantasy arm. I’m not talking about just the one victory either. It’s the overall game that is lacking. He has struck out only 20 batters in 40 innings leading to a pathetic 4.50 K/9 mark, and his overall game has led to a 4.05 xFIP, more than double his raw ERA in that time.

Feldman is a matchup play in mixed leagues for me. AL-only leaguers can roll him out there, just not that the upside is certainly limited.

EVOLADI PLAYABLE? MAYBE

Nathan Eovaldi throws his fastball at an average of 96.6 mph. No starting pitchers in baseball throws his fastball harder. We all see the arm and say – wow. You look at his 13-2 record and say – wow. You look at his 4.00 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and say – ugh. Toss in a mere 6.69 batters per nine in the strikeout column and you say – how is that possible given his arm? The record is great, but overall this is a below league average arm in terms of performance. To be fair he’s been a bit better of late with an 8-0 record, 2.93 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and those are solid numbers. Alas, his K/9 rate is still just 6.96, his BB/9 2.93 and his xFIP is 3.69. He is doing one thing very well, keeping the ball on the ground with a 56 percent ground ball rate over those 12 outings.

Eovaldi is worth starting in just about every format now but his overall game still disappoints given that powerful right arm. That is unless he’s pitching on the road in which case you might want to have him firmly planted on your bench (4.94 ERA, 1.63 WHIP with a .325 BAA).

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 8 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).