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HOMER TO FLY BALL RATIOS

The league average mark for HR/F ratio is about 9-10 percent most years.

Players generally establish their own levels. That means some guys are consistently at 6-8 percent, others at 16-18 etc.

Players tend to establish a baseline using three year rolling averages. That means if a guy has marks of 12, 16 and 12 percent the last three years the average of those three season – 13.3 percent – is likely a good target for expectations for the current season.

The league leaders are usually in the 25 percent range though a player will, very infrequently, reach 30 percent. In 2014 the league leader was Jose Abreu at 26.9 percent and only one other man in baseball was over 23 percent (Giancarlo Stanton at 25.5).

Finally, the league average fly ball rate is usually about 34-35 percent.

38.1 percent – Starling Marte

Obviously there is no chance Marte holds on to that mark given that he posted marks under 13 percent the last two seasons. Though this looks like a potential power breakout season for Marte, he already has eight bombs, it should also be noted that his fly ball rate is miniscule at 21 percent (career 27.1 percent). He will hit more fly balls, and fewer homers, moving forward. As odd as it sounds, even 20 homers isn’t a lock at the moment.

37.0 percent – Joc Pederson

I’ve previously noted my concern with Pederson. The K-rate is significant – 45 in 115 at-bats – and that 53 percent pull rate suggests he’s a real all-or-nothing options (his average is down to .233). Pederson will be fortunate to finish the year with a HR/F ratio half of where it currently is (his career minor league mark was 22 percent). Twenty-five homers is possible albeit not necessarily probable.

34.1 percent – Bryce Harper

Remember that three year rolling average thing? Harper was at 17 percent the last three years. Is it reasonable to expect him to double that this year, Duh, of course it isn’t. He has increased his fly ball rate to this point – from 33 percent the last three years to 44 percent this season – but again, holding on to such a significant jump is risky to expect. There’s also no chance he produces a hit every three at-bats with a fly ball rate that high (he’s currently hitting .338).

30.6 percent – Nelson Cruz

Cruz has 15 homers in 37 games. He’s also posted a HR/F ratio of 21 and 20 percent the last two years. Oh, and he has an 18 percent mark for his career. Given everything we’ve seen you know to expect a significant slowdown. Also fair to point out that his 45.4 fly ball rate is a bit elevated given that he’s had a mark under 43 percent each of the past four seasons.

30.3 percent – Hanley Ramirez

This is an odd one, like Marte. HanRam has a 48 percent ground ball rate, a mark that would be a four year high. Still, he’s on pace for the best homer season of his career (career best 33 bombs). Currently Ramirez is sporting a HR/F ratio that is more than double his already solid mark of 14.1 percent. Only once in his storied career has Ramirez even posted a mark of 20 percent (21.1 in 2013 over just 86 games).

30.0 percent – Pedro Alvarez

Of all the guys mentioned to this point, Alvarez might have the best shot to maintain his current rate. Twice in his career he’s posted mark of 25 percent (25.0 in 2012 and 26.3 in 2013), and his career rate is 21.2 percent. Like others on this list, the massive HR/F ratio hasn’t been met with an increase in his fly ball rate. In fact, that mark is way down at 24.4 percent this season after 3-straight years of at least 34.5 percent. If he starts hitting the ball in the air more, and let’s face it he will, we could see a nice homer run if he can keep lofting them into the seats.

28.6 percent – Chris Davis

Look the consistency the big fella brings in the HR/F category.

2012: 25.2 percent

2013: 29.6 percent

2014: 22.6 percent

More of the same for him this season.

27.8 percent – Brad Miller

Just stupid. He’s hit four homers in his last five games to jack this number up. Over 692 plate appearances his first two seasons the mark was 9.2 percent. Hardly anyone doubles their mark from season to season, so tripling is obviously out of the question.

26.9 – League Leader in 2014

Some guys that should see their power stroke improve moving forward.

2.6 percent – Matt Kemp

One homer thus far? Come on. For his career the HR/F mark is 16.1 percent, a total he has surpassed in four of the past five seasons.

3.3 percent – Robinson Cano

He may not be a big time power bat but his career HR/F mark is 13.6 percent. Fair to point out that the total dipped to a six year low last year at 10.7 percent, but even that depressed mark is three times his current rate.

4.3 percent – Wilson Ramos

He’s batting .314 so people aren’t complaining, but one homer in 118 at-bats is crazy low for this backstop. Ramos has a career mark of 15.6 percent and two of the last three years the mark has been over 23 percent. What holds him back from huge homer totals is the fact that his fly ball ratio has been under 24 percent the last three seasons.

5.4 percent – Troy Tulowitzki

His fly ball rate is 39.8 percent. His career mark is 38.5 percent. He had a career best 20.6 percent HR/F mark last season and in 2013 the mark was 18.1 percent. His career rate is 15.2 percent by the way. With health Tulo will start jacking homers given that his six year low in the category is 13.3 percent.

7.0 percent – Lucas Duda

His career rate is 13 percent and the last three seasons he’s posted marks of 12.5, 14.3 and 16.0 percent. Not only has his rate been cut in half this season but he’s also seen his fly ball rate dip significantly. After seasons of 48.4 and 49.0 percent you have to think sample size is the reason that his fly ball rate has fallen to 40.2 percent. By the way, what the hell is going on with his 36.4 percent line drive rate?

9.1 percent – Evan Longoria

For his career the 29 year old third sacker owns a 15.2 percent mark. He surpassed that total each year from 2011-13, but then he had a dip down to 10.8 percent last year. Is last year, and a quarter of this year, the “new” Longo? Remember how I said to look at a three year trend with a guy? From 2012-14 Longoria posted a mark of 14.4 percent. I’m not willing to give up on a guy who isn’t even 30 years old yet and assume that a regressing HR/F ratio over 1.25 years is the new norm. I would expect an uptick moving forward. 

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).