Manny Machado was the third overall selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft. He wasn't going to be good. He was going to be a superstar. In 2013 he lead the majors in at-bats and doubles. A good start on that path to greatness. At the same time the guy simply cannot stay healthy and that has his outlook for the upcoming season way more muddled than anyone thought it would be a couple of years ago.

THE MINORS

2010: Appeared in nine games after being drafted. The 17 year old hit .306 over 36 at-bats with a home run.

2011: Ranked as the 14th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. Baseball Prospectus had him 16th. Saw action in 101 games at Low and High-A ball. Hit a mere .257 with 11 homers, 48 runs scored an a .756 OPS. 

2012: Ranked as the 11th best prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. Baseball Prospectus had him 8th while MLB.com had him 6th. Appeared in 109 games at Double-A batting .266 with 11 homers, 59 RBIs, 60 runs an a .789 OPS. Oh, he also hit .266.

2014: Saw action in three games producing eight hits in 12 at-bats. 

TOTALS: .269/.349/.442 with 23 homers, 116 RBIs, 116 runs an a .791 OPS in 222 games.

THE MAJORS

2012: Saw action in 51 games and acquitted himself well for a 19 year old. Machado hit .262 with seven homers an a .739 OPS over 202 plate appearances.

2013: Killed it. His 667 at-bats led baseball, as did his 51 doubles. He hit just .283 with a poor .314 OBP however, though his 14 homers, 71 RBIs and 88 runs scored were impressive given the age on his birth certificate.

2014: Appeared in just 82 games. Flashed more power with 12 long balls but his average (.278), OBP (.324) and OPS (.755) showed no growth from 2013. 

HEALTH

Let's talk a pertinent issue at the moment - his body.

Though he had a strong first full season in 2013 that effort was blackened by an injury that he suffered on September 23rd when he tore a ligament in his left knee. His season was cut a bit short and he needed surgery. 

Because of that knee surgery he began the 2014 season late, starting his campaign on May 1st. His campaign lasted just 82 games with the Orioles as he tore a ligament in his right knee in August 11th. He had surgery at the end of August.

That's back-to-back seasons ended by knee surgery for Manny. One surgery was on his left knee, the other his right. He's 22 years old and is already coming off two consecutive seasons cut short by knee surgery. Maybe it's just bad luck and he'll be fine for the next decade, but there's also the possibility that his body simply won't be able to handle the workload. Hey, I'm just putting it out there. Here are his games played totals for each season of his pro career.

2010: Nine
2011: 101
2012: 153
2013: 156
2014: 85

Something to think about.

As for where he is at right now with his knee, Machado had this to say about two weeks ago. "Right now, I feel like I'm ready to go come spring training. I'm ready to roll -- finally have a spring training."

The team expects him to be ready for Opening Day.


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THE SKILLS

Manny Machado doesn't turn 23 until July 6th. He's still that young. That suggests it's certainly possible that further growth is coming. He's also had 2-straight seasons ended do to knee woes and that has certainly stunted his development. Let's go by category with his effort to this point.

Machado owns a .278 batting average through 289 games. Given his youth, that's an impressive number. However, it's nowhere near exciting in the fantasy game. My old bugaboo with young hitters can be placed squarely on Machado's shoulders. The guy never walks. He walked 29 times in 156 games in 2013 which makes his total of 20 walks in 82 games last year seem like monumental growth. It's not. He has 58 career walks. Carlos Santana walked 50 times in his last 68 games in 2014. At least Machado doesn't strike out a ton with a 17.3 percent K-rate for his career. Still, the resulting 0.26 BB/K ratio is poor and a third below the league average. Toss in a career 19.5 percent line drive rate and .316 BABIP and there's little at hand to think that Machado will have a shot at hitting .300 this season.

Machado is about 6'2", 185 lbs, and as noted a couple of times he's still very young. One thing players do often increase as they age is their power production be it because of a strength increase, an understanding of how pitchers are trying to work them or simply because batters learn to elevate the ball a bit better. Perhaps that will happen to Machado. As of right now though, there's little to suggest that is the case. The one fact in the corner of those that predict 20-homers for Machado this season is the increase he posted in his HR/F ratio last year. In his 2013 season he hit 51 doubles with a 7.9 HR/F ratio. Last season in 82 he hit 14 doubles with a 15.0 HR/F ratio. That cursory look suggests that he started to convert the doubles into homers. While that seems logical it's by no means something that every player does. Some never develop the ability to lift the ball. 

Here's what we know for certain with Machado. (1) During his minor league career his HR/F ratio was 10.9 percent. (2) His HR/F ratio his first two big league seasons was 11.7 and 7.9 percent. (3) Even with his 15.0 percent mark in 2014 his career HR/F ratio in the bigs is 10.4 percent. (4) He simply doesn't lift the ball. As a minor leaguer his fly ball rate was 31 percent. Through three big league seasons his fly ball rate is 33 percent. The league average is 35 percent. Until he hits the ball in the air more the only chance he has to hit even 20 homers is for him to repeat that HR/F ratio of 2014. I simply don't think the evidence suggests that the odds of that happening are very high.

For all his strengths, as I noted above, Machado doesn't walk. Therefore his career OBP is .313. That's nine points below the league average during his career. As a result he shouldn't be looked at as a potential star in the runs scored column. If he plays 150 games we could see 80+ runs scored, but without a true power stroke, and/or a better eye at the dish, he simply won't get on base to have a huge runs scored effort.

The Orioles lineup lost Nelson Cruz and that will hurt. If Steve Pearce falters, and I broke down why that is possible in his Player Profile, or Chris Davis fails to rebound, the lineup could struggle a bit. You should still feel pretty confident that Machado will drive in a good number of runs with health though. 

Machado has 10 steals in his career. He could swipe that many in a season, but coming off those knee surgeries it's best to expect little running. Even in his 2013 campaign he was caught seven times, one more than his steal total of six.

CONCLUSION

Machado is all about projection. As of right now he's a young player who has to prove he can stay healthy. He's got oodles of skill and a pedigree that won't quit, but there are still legitimate questions about where he is at as a player on the field. Some think .300 with 20 homers is the baseline with Machado. It might be one day. Right now that would be a wildly aggressive position to hold. I look at Machado and see Pablo Sandoval as the upside, not Anthony Rendon. You should think the same to avoid overpaying. 

10 team lg: Only an option as a corner infielder. You're falling behind if he's your starting third sacker. Even as a corner infield option I wouldn't be stoked if he was my guy. 

12 team lg: Only an option as a corner infielder. Uncertainty about his health and power stroke weigh him down. Also, his swing at everything approach and lack of base stealing talent further diminish his value. We don't draft based on scouting reports, we draft based on production. 

15 team lg: Barely an option as a starting third baseman. Truth be told, I wouldn't want him as a stater at third in this format though I would admit that he could easily return top-15 value. If he slides in the draft and you want to pair him with Martin Prado or Chase Headley go for it. If you draft him to be your third baseman though you will want to have another option you can turn to at the hot corner in case he struggles early on or, even worse, isn't ready to go on Opening Day.

AL-only: Cost analysis needed. At full price, $15 or a 5th round bid, you want nothing to do with Machado. If he falls into the single digits in cost, or to the point where he's outside the top seven or eight at third base, then it's worth taking the plunge on his services.