Steve Pearce turns 32 years old in April this year. A former top level prospect, Pearce was categorized as a Quad-A player - too good for the minors (hence AAAA) but not good enough for the big leagues - prior to last season. Was 2014 outlier or should you have faith in continued success from the righty?

THE MINORS

Pearce started playing a long time ago... (insert Star Wars joke here).

2005: After college he appeared in 72 game at Low-A ball as a 22 year old. Pearce killed it with 52 RBIs an a .301/.381/.474 slash line.

2006: Appeared in 131 games at Low and High-A hitting .273 with 26 homers and 98 RBIs. Stole eight bases with a .876 OPS.

2007: Saw action in 134 games (High-A, Double-A, Triple-A) batting a robust .333 with 31 homers and 113 RBIs. His OPS was 1.016.

2008: Ranked as 89th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America and 43rd by Baseball Prospectus. Appeared in 103 games hitting .251 with 12 homers and 60 RBIs in Triple-A action. Disappointing. 

2009: In 77 games at Triple-A he hit .286 with 13 homers and 54 RBIs. His OPS was .875.

2010: Saw action in 37 Triple-A contests batting .331 with three homers and 17 RBIs.

2011: Eleven minor league games led to three homers, eight RBIs an a .879 OPS.

2012: Moved from the Pirates to Yankees organization after a stop with the Astros. In 53 Triple-A games he batted .318.419/.568 with 11 homers. 

2013: Move on to the Orioles organization. In four minor league games he hit .273 with an RBI.

TOTALS: .294/.371/.522 with 106 homers and 433 RBIs over 622 games.  

THE MAJORS

2007: He hit .294 with 13 runs scored in 23 games with the Pirates.

2008: Appeared in 37 games batting .248 with four homers and 15 RBIs.

2009: Saw action leading to a career best 165 (until 2014). Pearce hit .206 with four homers and 43 strikeouts.

2010: Over 29 at-bats he hit .276 with five RBIs. Also walked seven times.

2011: Hit .202 with a homer over 94 at-bats.

2012: Spent time with Houston, the Yankees and Orioles. Saw 159 at-bats which lead to his most productive effort to date. Pearce hit .239 with four homers, 26 RBIs and 16 runs scored.

2013: In 44 games with the Orioles he hit .261 with four homers and 13 RBIs.

2014: Broke out in a huge way. In 338 at-bats he hit 21 homers, drove in 49 runs and scored 51 times. He also hit .293 with a .373 OBP and .556 SLG in an out of nowhere performance. 

TOTALS: .255/.335/.433 with 38 homers and 131 RBIs over 1,230 at-bats

THE SKILLS

Let's start with the obvious.

It took eight years at the big league level before the soon to be 32 year old could convince a big league club to give him regular work. That alone should give you pause. It should also be pointed out that he played at the Triple-A level in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. Just pointing out that's a long time at that level. Also, harken back to the lead sentence of this paragraph. Pearce will be 32 years old in April. It took him forever to produce at the big leagues, and history isn't kind to guys who played for 12 years before establishing themselves at the big league level, is it?

Let's measure his big league effort in 2014 against his previous work in the majors.

2014:  0.53 BB/K, 19.4 LD-rate, 0.77 GB/FB
2007-13: 0.47 BB/K, 17.5 LD-rate, 0.94  GB/FB

His walk to strikeout rate didn't change much in '14. His line drive jumped two percent, a significant increase but certainly nothing that makes you nervous about a huge fall in 2015. He hit more fly balls in 2014, part of the reason he hit more dingers. Speaking of home runs...

2014: .322 BABIP, 17.5 HR/F, .263 Isolated Power
07-13: .283 BBAIP, 6.9 HR/F, .139 Isolated Power

Pearce has power, but any time a player more than doubles any rate they own you should be wary. Pearce more than doubled his HR/F ratio last season. I will give him that his 2011-13 minor league work resulted in a 16.1 percent HR/F rate, but I'm still dubious that he will be able to sustain that level against big leaguers. 

Isolated Power measures a players raw power stroke (it relates their relative talent to produce extra base hits). The league average is usually in the .140 range. Note that prior to last season Pearce was at .139. Last season that mark practically doubled to .263. Guys don't do that. Moreover his .263 mark was the 7th best mark in baseball among players with at least 350 plate appearances. Do you really think he's the 7th best slugger in baseball? Me either.

A guy with a .283 BABIP could certainly post a mark of .322 for a season. Happens all the time. The trick is holding on to that growth - that rarely happens. 

2014: 11.0 Swing Strike %, 76.3 contact rate
07-13: 9.8 Swing Strike %, 76.2 contact rate

Not much change here at all. A bit surprising given the success he had last year.

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

Peace saw action in 51 games at first base in 2014 with another 43 appearances in the outfield. He will obviously offer dual-position eligibility in the fantasy game. As for his path to playing time with the Orioles, it seems pretty clear. Manny Machado will play third base with Chris Davis taking over full-time at first. In the outfield the Orioles have Alejandro De Aza in left, Adam Jones in center, and Travis Snider in right. That would leave DH duties to Delmon Young and  possibly J.P. Arencibia. Basically, 500 at-bats are there for Pearce if he can take advantage of the opportunity - though he will likely be playing a little bit here, a little bit there from game to game.  

CONCLUSION

In a vacuum, the 2014 effort of Pearce doesn't stand out in any appreciable way. By that I mean nothing - other than the 17.5 percent HR/F ratio and .263 Isolated Power - stands out. His contact rate, walk rate, strikeout rate, BABIP, line drive mark etc... they all fall into the realm of "average." The issue is that Pearce has been a professional baseball player for more than a entire decade and this is the first time he's had success in the bigs. I also have a hard time accepting that any player can double their HR/F and ISO and hold on to that success. Just doesn't happen, especially when the guy is 32. You would be wise to heed that warning that on draft day.

10 team lg: Given his total lack of big league success before last season, Pearce should be a reserve round add at best in this shallow format. 

12 team lg: You obviously don't want to overpay. Guys like Marlon Byrd, Oswaldo Arcia and Khris Davis likely won't have appreciably worse results. Don't overpay for Pearce. He's simply not a player to target in this format.

15 team lg: Qualifying at first and the outfield boosts his value in a league that's deeper. Still tough to trust that he will produce at last year's levels so he shouldn't be viewed as anything other than a 5/6 outfielder type. 

AL-only: Given his positional flexibility he is worth throwing a couple of extra dollars at. Depends where you draft is being held. If it's back east you'll likely have to overpay while on the west coast he might slide a bit. Not a foundational player, but worthy of a mid-level bid.