2023 Player Outlook
2023 Recap: Civale added over a full run to his season long ERA after his trade from the Guardians to the Rays. He started throwing his four-seam fastball and slider a bit more and relied on his cutter and curveball a little less after the trade and his Hits/9 average, HR/9 average and K/9 average all significantly increased. Using his slider more makes sense (.148 BAA last season) but with his fastball becoming increasingly hittable (.359 BAA last season) he might want to reverse course. You could also probably ignore the HR spike since his HR/9 with the Rays was closer to his career average and maybe the regression in his HRs allowed earlier in the season was an outlier.
2024 Outlook: Civale’s ERA spike coincided with a BABIP spike that emerged once he got traded to the Rays and likely the result of a combination of some bad luck and the slight change in Civale’s pitch mix. A repeat of last year’s early season success is probably not sustainable but if healthy and if he focuses on throwing his curveball (.188 BAA) and slider a bit more he could win 10 to 12 games and post an ERA in the upper three range.