UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs De Ridder takes place this Saturday live from Abu Dhabi.  The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 12:00 PM EST on ESPN, followed by the Main Card at 3:00 on ABC/ESPN+.  The Main Event features Robert Whittaker looking to make his return to the title picture of the Middleweight Division against rising prospect Reinier De Ridder.  The Co-Main event features former Bantamweight Champion Petr Yan against another red-hot prospect in Marcus McGhee.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

 


 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs De Ridder

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder

8400/7800

-

Stackability: Low

-155/ 140

140./180.

A great matchup in the 185lb division has former champion Whittaker takes on Reinier de Ridder. Whittaker has superior boxing, but he needs to avoid the clinch and takedowns that de Ridder will likely try to implement. Reinier has a ton of submissions on his resume so he will likely try to close the distance to get this fight to the ground. Whittaker really struggles when he can't deal with the physicality in his opponents such as his losses to Du Plessis and Chimaev, but Reinier isn't as physical as those fighters. I expect Whittaker to be able to control the distance and win by R3-4-5 KO.


 

Expensive Fighters
 

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Shara Magomedov

9600

Marc-Andre Barriault

Somewhat-Safe

-675 

-150 

We don't have any big grapplers in the high range this week so we likely need to focus on finishing ability. Barriault can be durable but when he does get KO’d, he almost always gets KO'd early. Shara is taking a major step back in competition here compared to his last opponent, Michael "Venom" Paige. Shara should lead the striking and I expect him to dominate this fight and find the early finish.
Carlos Leal

9400

Muslim Salikhov

Somewhat-Safe

-500 

-175 

Leal is more physical than Salikhov, but Salikhov has an ability to slow down fights so outside of the finish he might not score well. Leal can wrestle here if he wants, but he doesn't always go to that well. I expect him to win the fight cleanly, it all comes down to if he gets the KO and I think he eventually will find it.
Marcus Buchecha

9100

Martin Buday

Somewhat-Safe

-310 

-140 

Buchecha has a really high ceiling but he is a debuting fighter so it's always tough to trust them. He is one of the best heavyweight grappling prospects the UFC has ever seen so expect him to try to get this fight down early. If he can get on top of Buday he should be able to get the finish, but a lot of times we see these grappling aces come to the UFC and struggle to implement the wrestling. He has taken 6 fights outside of the UFC so he should be better prepared than some of the prospects we have seen.
Steven Nguyen

9200

Mohammad Yahya

Moderate

-395 

-125 

Nguyen is a finisher, but he enters enemy territory to take on Yahya. His volume is pretty good and he can mix in wrestling a little bit, but neither of these fighters are very high level so it is hard to trust one. Nguyen should be better but if it goes to the judges’ scorecards, he may have a tough time swaying the judges from picking the local favorite.
Petr Yan

9300

Marcus McGhee

Moderate

-375 

350. 

Yan isn't a finisher but he takes a big step back in competition this week. McGhee's leg was fried against Jonathan Martinez so I expect Yan to try to do the same thing. Yan could even wrestle here if he wanted to but he rarely uses a fully grappling game plan. I'm betting Yan by KO but there is a big gap in the odds to finish between Yan and the others in this price range.



 

Mid-Range Fighters
 

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Nikita Krylov

8700

Bogdan Guskov

Moderate

-205 

-135 

Call the midrange 7500-8700 this week since there are only four fights in that range if you remove the main event. Krylov at his best dominates this fight, but he has had some issues of late. He took a two-year hiatus (moved from Ukraine to Russia and denounced his citizenship I believe) and looked slower than normal. He is a well-rounded fighter and I expect him to wrestle here, and while his cardio isn't world class it should be good enough for him to hold off Guskov. 
Asu Almabayev

8000

Jose Ochoa

Moderate

-125 

475. 

A big jump down straight into an "underdog" pick but I expect him to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. He won't finish the fight but the way he wins is with a ton of wrestling volume and control time so even in a decision he can score well. He didn't have success against Kape last time out but Kape is someone who on his best night can win a title in this division so you can't hold that against him. 
Amanda Ribas

8600

Tabatha Ricci

Somewhat-Risky

-205 

450. 

I've been back and forth on this fight all week but after seeing the face offs, I lean towards Ribas. Her size difference is probably going to let her dictate where the fight takes place and if she keeps it standing or ends up on top in a scramble she will win the fight. As long as she isn't controlled against the cage or taken down by Ricci her skillset everywhere else is better than Ricci's.
Bryce Mitchell

8300

Said Nurmagomedov

Somewhat-Risky

-140 

380. 

Bryce is moving down a weight class here so hopefully his wrestling will translate. He has good submission skills and decent wrestling but he was outsized up at 145lbs by some good fighters (Topuria/ Jean Silva/ Josh Emmett). Said has some good submission skills of his own but if anyone is looking to wrestle it will be Bryce.
Bogdan Guskov

7500

Nikita Krylov

Somewhat-Risky

170 

200. 

This is a high variance fight and I expect someone to get the finish. Guskov has power, and if he lands clean, especially on a tired Krylov he should be able to get the finish.
Tabatha Ricci

7600

Amanda Ribas

Somewhat-Risky

170 

900. 

Ricci has wrestling upside but she won't finish this fight. She probably need 3+ takedowns to have a chance to win this but that makes her a good DraftKings play since any win is going to come with wrestling points.
Said Nurmagomedov

7900

Bryce Mitchell

Risky

120 

225. 

He has tight submissions so he could finish Mitchell. I don't love targeting against Mitchell since he should be the one ending up on top but if anyone is going to leave their neck out to be finished it'll be Mitchell.



 

Paydown Fighters
 

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Billy Elekana

7300

Ibo Aslan

Somewhat-Risky

230 

475. 

Elekana is tough and Aslan tends to slow down. I like Elekana to keep the range and land some big strikes to get the win.
Davey Grant

7200

Da'Mon Blackshear

Somewhat-Risky

285 

700. 

Grant is the split decision king. All of his fights tend to have him rocking his opponent and him getting rocked in return but they rarely end in finishes. If Blackshear has his wrestling going, he might be able to get the submission but, on the feet, I favor Grant.
Martin Buday

7100

Marcus Buchecha

Risky

250 

550. 

Buday takes on a newcomer and on the feet, this should be a close fight. Heavyweight wrestling normally leads to whoever ends up on top holds the position so if Buchecha pulls guard to go for a leg lock Buday might be able to capitalize. 
Mohammad Yahya

7000

Steven Nguyen

Risky

310 

650. 

He normally finishes fights but he is just not at the UFC level. I don't know if Nguyen is either though. He should keep it standing since he never really wrestles and if it is close he might get the nod as the local fan favorite.
Muslim Salikhov

6800

Carlos Leal

Risky

380 

800. 

Salikhov is going to throw spin attacks, but the question is will they land. He doesn't throw much volume but he has power if he lands clean. As a +800 ITD I don't want to back someone who is a KO or bust fighter.
Marc-Andre Barriault

6600

Shara Magomedov

Risky

490 

900. 

Barriault has some skills and can wrestle a little bit. He has a tough matchup here and is going to be giving up speed and durability so he should wrestle, I just don't know if he will actually use it since he never prioritizes it.
Marcus McGhee

6900

Petr Yan

Risky

295 

750. 

Yan is very hard to finish, and this is a major step up for McGhee. I don't see him having a path to score more than 65-70pts so he needs other dogs to lose even if he wins which could be tough to ask.


 

Sample Lineup

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Live Dogs

De Ridder, Guskov, Elekana, Nurmagomedov

Picks and Stats

   

Robert Whittaker

vs

Reinier de Ridder

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 27-8-0

Record

Record: 20-2-0

10

Knockouts

5

5

Subs

13

-155

Vegas Odds

+140

   

Petr Yan

vs

Marcus McGhee

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 18-5-0

Record

Record: 10-1-0

7

Knockouts

8

1

Subs

1

-375

Vegas Odds

+295

   

Shara Magomedov

vs

Marc-Andre Barriault

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6,600

Record: 15-1-0

Record

Record: 17-9-0 (1 NC)

12

Knockouts

11

0

Subs

1

-675

Vegas Odds

490

   

Asu Almabayev

vs

Jose Ochoa

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

Record: 21-3-0

Record

Record: 8-1-0 (1 NC)

3

Knockouts

7

9

Subs

1

-125

Vegas Odds

105

   

Nikita Krylov

vs

Bogdan Guskov

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

Record: 30-10-0

Record

Record: 17-3-0

12

Knockouts

14

16

Subs

3

-205

Vegas Odds

170

 

0

 

Bryce Mitchell

vs

Said Nurmagomedov

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 17-4-0

Record

Record: 18-4-0

1

Knockouts

4

9

Subs

6

-140

Vegas Odds

120

   

Muslim Salikhov

vs

Carlos Leal

$6,800

DFS Salary

$9,400

Record: 21-5-0

Record

Record: 22-6-0

14

Knockouts

11

2

Subs

2

380

Vegas Odds

-500

   

Davey Grant

vs

Da'Mon Blackshear

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

Record: 16-7-0

Record

Record: 17-7-1

4

Knockouts

2

9

Subs

11

285

Vegas Odds

-360

   

Amanda Ribas

vs

Tabatha Ricci

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 13-6-0

Record

Record: 11-3-0

3

Knockouts

1

4

Subs

3

-205

Vegas Odds

170

   

Ibo Aslan

vs

Billy Elekana

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 14-2-0

Record

Record: 7-2-0

14

Knockouts

3

0

Subs

1

-285

Vegas Odds

230

   

Mohammad Yahya

vs

Steven Nguyen

$7,000

DFS Salary

$9,200

Record: 12-5-0

Record

Record: 9-2-0

7

Knockouts

4

2

Subs

3

310

Vegas Odds

-395

   

Martin Buday

vs

Marcus Buchecha

$7,100

DFS Salary

$9,100

Record: 15-2-0

Record

Record: 5-1-0

7

Knockouts

1

2

Subs

4

250

Vegas Odds

-310

   

 

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