UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Whittaker vs. de Ridder Cheat Sheet, 7/26
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs De Ridder takes place this Saturday live from Abu Dhabi. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 12:00 PM EST on ESPN, followed by the Main Card at 3:00 on ABC/ESPN+. The Main Event features Robert Whittaker looking to make his return to the title picture of the Middleweight Division against rising prospect Reinier De Ridder. The Co-Main event features former Bantamweight Champion Petr Yan against another red-hot prospect in Marcus McGhee.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
Â
Â
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs De Ridder
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Robert Whittaker vs Reinier de Ridder | 8400/7800 | - | Stackability: Low | -155/ 140 | 140./180. |
| A great matchup in the 185lb division has former champion Whittaker takes on Reinier de Ridder. Whittaker has superior boxing, but he needs to avoid the clinch and takedowns that de Ridder will likely try to implement. Reinier has a ton of submissions on his resume so he will likely try to close the distance to get this fight to the ground. Whittaker really struggles when he can't deal with the physicality in his opponents such as his losses to Du Plessis and Chimaev, but Reinier isn't as physical as those fighters. I expect Whittaker to be able to control the distance and win by R3-4-5 KO. | |||||
Â
Expensive Fighters
Â
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Shara Magomedov | 9600 | Marc-Andre Barriault | Somewhat-Safe | -675Â | -150Â |
| We don't have any big grapplers in the high range this week so we likely need to focus on finishing ability. Barriault can be durable but when he does get KO’d, he almost always gets KO'd early. Shara is taking a major step back in competition here compared to his last opponent, Michael "Venom" Paige. Shara should lead the striking and I expect him to dominate this fight and find the early finish. | |||||
| Carlos Leal | 9400 | Muslim Salikhov | Somewhat-Safe | -500Â | -175Â |
| Leal is more physical than Salikhov, but Salikhov has an ability to slow down fights so outside of the finish he might not score well. Leal can wrestle here if he wants, but he doesn't always go to that well. I expect him to win the fight cleanly, it all comes down to if he gets the KO and I think he eventually will find it. | |||||
| Marcus Buchecha | 9100 | Martin Buday | Somewhat-Safe | -310Â | -140Â |
| Buchecha has a really high ceiling but he is a debuting fighter so it's always tough to trust them. He is one of the best heavyweight grappling prospects the UFC has ever seen so expect him to try to get this fight down early. If he can get on top of Buday he should be able to get the finish, but a lot of times we see these grappling aces come to the UFC and struggle to implement the wrestling. He has taken 6 fights outside of the UFC so he should be better prepared than some of the prospects we have seen. | |||||
| Steven Nguyen | 9200 | Mohammad Yahya | Moderate | -395Â | -125Â |
| Nguyen is a finisher, but he enters enemy territory to take on Yahya. His volume is pretty good and he can mix in wrestling a little bit, but neither of these fighters are very high level so it is hard to trust one. Nguyen should be better but if it goes to the judges’ scorecards, he may have a tough time swaying the judges from picking the local favorite. | |||||
| Petr Yan | 9300 | Marcus McGhee | Moderate | -375 | 350. |
| Yan isn't a finisher but he takes a big step back in competition this week. McGhee's leg was fried against Jonathan Martinez so I expect Yan to try to do the same thing. Yan could even wrestle here if he wanted to but he rarely uses a fully grappling game plan. I'm betting Yan by KO but there is a big gap in the odds to finish between Yan and the others in this price range. | |||||
Â
Mid-Range Fighters
Â
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Nikita Krylov | 8700 | Bogdan Guskov | Moderate | -205Â | -135Â |
| Call the midrange 7500-8700 this week since there are only four fights in that range if you remove the main event. Krylov at his best dominates this fight, but he has had some issues of late. He took a two-year hiatus (moved from Ukraine to Russia and denounced his citizenship I believe) and looked slower than normal. He is a well-rounded fighter and I expect him to wrestle here, and while his cardio isn't world class it should be good enough for him to hold off Guskov. | |||||
| Asu Almabayev | 8000 | Jose Ochoa | Moderate | -125 | 475. |
| A big jump down straight into an "underdog" pick but I expect him to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. He won't finish the fight but the way he wins is with a ton of wrestling volume and control time so even in a decision he can score well. He didn't have success against Kape last time out but Kape is someone who on his best night can win a title in this division so you can't hold that against him. | |||||
| Amanda Ribas | 8600 | Tabatha Ricci | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | 450. |
| I've been back and forth on this fight all week but after seeing the face offs, I lean towards Ribas. Her size difference is probably going to let her dictate where the fight takes place and if she keeps it standing or ends up on top in a scramble she will win the fight. As long as she isn't controlled against the cage or taken down by Ricci her skillset everywhere else is better than Ricci's. | |||||
| Bryce Mitchell | 8300 | Said Nurmagomedov | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | 380. |
| Bryce is moving down a weight class here so hopefully his wrestling will translate. He has good submission skills and decent wrestling but he was outsized up at 145lbs by some good fighters (Topuria/ Jean Silva/ Josh Emmett). Said has some good submission skills of his own but if anyone is looking to wrestle it will be Bryce. | |||||
| Bogdan Guskov | 7500 | Nikita Krylov | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | 200. |
| This is a high variance fight and I expect someone to get the finish. Guskov has power, and if he lands clean, especially on a tired Krylov he should be able to get the finish. | |||||
| Tabatha Ricci | 7600 | Amanda Ribas | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | 900. |
| Ricci has wrestling upside but she won't finish this fight. She probably need 3+ takedowns to have a chance to win this but that makes her a good DraftKings play since any win is going to come with wrestling points. | |||||
| Said Nurmagomedov | 7900 | Bryce Mitchell | Risky | 120 | 225. |
| He has tight submissions so he could finish Mitchell. I don't love targeting against Mitchell since he should be the one ending up on top but if anyone is going to leave their neck out to be finished it'll be Mitchell. | |||||
Â
Paydown Fighters
Â
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Billy Elekana | 7300 | Ibo Aslan | Somewhat-Risky | 230 | 475. |
| Elekana is tough and Aslan tends to slow down. I like Elekana to keep the range and land some big strikes to get the win. | |||||
| Davey Grant | 7200 | Da'Mon Blackshear | Somewhat-Risky | 285 | 700. |
| Grant is the split decision king. All of his fights tend to have him rocking his opponent and him getting rocked in return but they rarely end in finishes. If Blackshear has his wrestling going, he might be able to get the submission but, on the feet, I favor Grant. | |||||
| Martin Buday | 7100 | Marcus Buchecha | Risky | 250 | 550. |
| Buday takes on a newcomer and on the feet, this should be a close fight. Heavyweight wrestling normally leads to whoever ends up on top holds the position so if Buchecha pulls guard to go for a leg lock Buday might be able to capitalize. | |||||
| Mohammad Yahya | 7000 | Steven Nguyen | Risky | 310 | 650. |
| He normally finishes fights but he is just not at the UFC level. I don't know if Nguyen is either though. He should keep it standing since he never really wrestles and if it is close he might get the nod as the local fan favorite. | |||||
| Muslim Salikhov | 6800 | Carlos Leal | Risky | 380 | 800. |
| Salikhov is going to throw spin attacks, but the question is will they land. He doesn't throw much volume but he has power if he lands clean. As a +800 ITD I don't want to back someone who is a KO or bust fighter. | |||||
| Marc-Andre Barriault | 6600 | Shara Magomedov | Risky | 490 | 900. |
| Barriault has some skills and can wrestle a little bit. He has a tough matchup here and is going to be giving up speed and durability so he should wrestle, I just don't know if he will actually use it since he never prioritizes it. | |||||
| Marcus McGhee | 6900 | Petr Yan | Risky | 295 | 750. |
| Yan is very hard to finish, and this is a major step up for McGhee. I don't see him having a path to score more than 65-70pts so he needs other dogs to lose even if he wins which could be tough to ask. | |||||
Â
Sample Lineup
Â
Live Dogs
De Ridder, Guskov, Elekana, Nurmagomedov
Picks and Stats
| Â | Â | Â |
Robert Whittaker | vs | Reinier de Ridder |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
Record: 27-8-0 | Record | Record: 20-2-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 13 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Petr Yan | vs | Marcus McGhee |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-375 | Vegas Odds | +295 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Shara Magomedov | vs | Marc-Andre Barriault |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
Record: 15-1-0 | Record | Record: 17-9-0 (1 NC) |
12 | Knockouts | 11 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-675 | Vegas Odds | 490 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Asu Almabayev | vs | Jose Ochoa |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
Record: 21-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 (1 NC) |
3 | Knockouts | 7 |
9 | Subs | 1 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | 105 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Nikita Krylov | vs | Bogdan Guskov |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 30-10-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 14 |
16 | Subs | 3 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | 170 |
| Â | 0 | Â |
Bryce Mitchell | vs | Said Nurmagomedov |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 17-4-0 | Record | Record: 18-4-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
9 | Subs | 6 |
-140 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Muslim Salikhov | vs | Carlos Leal |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 21-5-0 | Record | Record: 22-6-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 11 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
380 | Vegas Odds | -500 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Davey Grant | vs | Da'Mon Blackshear |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 16-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-7-1 |
4 | Knockouts | 2 |
9 | Subs | 11 |
285 | Vegas Odds | -360 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Amanda Ribas | vs | Tabatha Ricci |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | 170 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Ibo Aslan | vs | Billy Elekana |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 7-2-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-285 | Vegas Odds | 230 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Mohammad Yahya | vs | Steven Nguyen |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
Record: 12-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
310 | Vegas Odds | -395 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Martin Buday | vs | Marcus Buchecha |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 5-1-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 1 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
250 | Vegas Odds | -310 |
| Â | Â | Â |
Â
