UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 takes place this Saturday from The T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.  Conor McGregor makes his much-awaited return to the octagon after five years away from the sport as he takes on one of the most exciting fighters in the world, Max Holloway. The fight takes place at 170lbs which will be the first time for Holloway, and the first time for Conor since his fight with Nate Diaz. This fight should be non-stop action for as long as it lasts, as both men look to create a highlight towards the end of their careers. As always, head on over to our DFS ownership page for full ownership breakdowns of these fights.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

7200/9000

-

Stackability: Low

175/ -225

240.0/-163.

THE NOTORIOUS IS BACK!!! The most entertaining fighter on the mic faces off against the most entertaining fighter in the cage. McGregor is coming off a five-year layoff, and when we last saw him, his leg was broken in the cage due to a freak injury. While Conor has been away, Max has been fighting the best of the best in the world, beating Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje (current title holder), while dropping fights against Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliviera. The fight is taking place up at 170lbs so Conor should have more power to start the fight, but I can't see him having more than 7 minutes of cardio. Conor could come out here and just flatline Max, but I think eventually Max's pressure and footwork will be too much for Conor to keep up with, so I have Max winning by late second-round KO.


 

Expensive Fighters

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Gable Steveson

9900

Elisha Ellison

Somewhat-Safe

-3,333

-1,400

Gable is the best wrestling prospect the UFC has ever seen, and they are giving no discounts on his debut. He comes in as a -3333 favorite, which is the largest I have ever seen. He has a huge ceiling with his wrestling, and he is nearly -350 to win the fight in Round 1, so at least 80% of the time, he is going to score 105+. The question becomes, do enough underdogs win on this card to allow you to fit in the $9,900 price tag? I'll have him in about 50% of my lineups, but it'll be tough to fit him and Holloway.

Damian Pinas

8900

Cesar Almeida

Somewhat-Safe

-250 

-138. 

There are a lot of high-priced fighters this week who I am more confident in winning, but I don't know if they have the ceiling that Pinas has. His striking is very good, and he has a major reach and is the younger, quicker fighter. This should be a high-level striking battle for as long as it lasts, but eventually Pinas probably lands and KOs Almeida.

Farid Basharat

9600

John Garza

Somewhat-Safe

-649 

105.0 

He is a huge favorite and rightly so. He is undefeated, has good wrestling and good boxing, and faces a short-notice replacement. He should be able to dominate the fight, but he isn't a fighter who routinely scores 100+ points in his wins.

Adrian Yanez

9400

Cody Garbrandt

Moderate

-450 

-125. 

Yanez normally throws a lot of volume, but Garbrandt looks to slow the pace and use his wrestling to avoid damage. If Yanez lands clean, he'll get the KO. Especially as Cody ages, he has suffered terrible damage terribly. As long as Yanez can keep it standing and avoid the one-punch KO power of Cody, he should win this fight easily.

Alessandro Costa

9100

Cody Durden

Moderate

-250 

100

Costa has a ton of power, and Durden can be chinny at times, but I expect this to be a tight fight for at least the first 5 minutes. Durden sometimes pushes a pace that leads to him gassing out, and if that happens, Costa will dominate in the second round and find the KO.




 

Mid-Range Fighters

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Ryan Gandra

8600

Zach Reese

Moderate

-138 

-110. 

This is one of the higher volatility fights, and I make Gandra and McKinney both as the top spot. I think Gandra is more likely to win than McKinney, but both of these fights should be absolute wars until someone drops.

Terrance McKinney

8400

King Green

Moderate

-150 

-138. 

McKinney and Green are on a streak where if they win a fight, they score 110+ points, and I expect that to continue here. McKinney has 3-5 minutes of cardio before he completely becomes gassed. Both men have decent wrestling, and I expect whoever gets the first takedown wins, which is why I lean slightly towards McKinney.

King Green

7800

Terrance McKinney

Somewhat-Risky

120 

130.0 

King Green has the highest ceiling of the underdogs on the slate. If he wins this fight, the worst-case scenario would probably be 90 points in a second-round finish.

Tracy Cortez

8000

Wang Cong

Somewhat-Risky

-105 

600.0 

She is almost a pick'em and has wrestling upside, so this is a solid play if not many underdogs win. Her ceiling is nowhere near as high as Green, Reese, or Krylov's, but she has much better odds to win.

Zach Reese

7600

Ryan Gandra

Somewhat-Risky

114

150

Reese has a ton of upside and will likely trade with Gandra in the pocket. He also has some wrestling, which could bail him out of trouble. Reese is hard to trust because he is so up and down in his career, but he is massive for the division at 6'4, so Gandra may have trouble getting inside.

Cory Sandhagen

8300

Mario Bautista

Somewhat-Risky

-150 

275.0 

This is a rematch of a fight where Sandhagen won by quick submission. I don't think that this fight goes the same way, but he has a major reach advantage, which should allow him to pick Bautista apart from the outside.




 

Paydown Fighters

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Nikita Krylov

7500

Robert Whittaker

Somewhat-Risky

110 

200.0 

Whittaker is moving up to a new division, and the odds are plummeting in Krylov's direction. Krylov has gas tank problems, but Whittaker has become low volume as he ages. Krylov should be able to use his wrestling to control some of the fights, which could help him win a decision if it gets there.

Cesar Almeida

7300

Damian Pinas

Somewhat-Risky

200 

240.0 

Almeida is older, but he has good striking. I don't love his volume or his takedown defense, but if he lands clean, he could KO Pinas. He is KO or bust because he won't win a decision due to his low volume.

Cody Durden

7100

Alessandro Costa

Risky

200 

500

Durden has good wrestling, especially early on, so he has a high ceiling, but he normally fades in rounds 2 and 3. 

Kai Kamaka III

6900

Luke Riley

Risky

215

750

Kamaka has power and decent volume, but he is a step behind Riley anywhere it goes. If he can land a big shot early, he could turn the tide of the fight. He is the lowest-priced underdog that I would trust this week.

John Garza

$6,600

Farid Basharat

Risky

450 

700.0 

Garza's striking is pretty high level, but he has a really tough test in front of him this week. He is KO or bust, but I don't see him getting the KO this week.

Elisha Ellison

$6,300

Gable Steveson

Risky

1400

1700

Ellison is one of the biggest underdogs in UFC history. Unless he lands something huge early on, he is going to get taken down and lose this fight quickly. Steveson has below-average head movement, so there is a chance he could land, but I don't see it happening.


 

 

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Pimblett, Green, Reese, Krylov, Cortez

Picks and Stats

   

Conor McGregor

vs

Max Holloway

$7,200

DFS Salary

$9,000

22-6-0

Record

27-9-0

29

Knockouts

12

1

Subs

2

175 

Vegas Odds

-225 

   

Benoit Saint Denis

vs

Paddy Pimblett

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

17-3-0

Record

23-4-0

6

Knockouts

6

11

Subs

11

-165

Vegas Odds

130 

   

Cory Sandhagen

vs

Mario Bautista

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

18-6-0

Record

17-3-0

8

Knockouts

3

3

Subs

7

-150 

Vegas Odds

120 

   

Brandon Royval

vs

Lone’er Kavanagh

$7,400

DFS Salary

$8,800

17-9-0

Record

10-1-0

4

Knockouts

4

9

Subs

1

175 

Vegas Odds

-225 

   

King Green

vs

Terrance McKinney

$7,800

DFS Salary

$8,400

35-17-1

Record

18-8-0

8

Knockouts

9

3

Subs

9

120 

Vegas Odds

-150 

 

0

 

Robert Whittaker

vs

Nikita Krylov

$8,700

DFS Salary

$7,500

26-9-0

Record

31-11-0

10

Knockouts

13

5

Subs

16

-138 

Vegas Odds

110 

   

Gable Steveson

vs

Elisha Elison

$9,900

DFS Salary

$6,300

3-0-0

Record

5-2-0

3

Knockouts

4

0

Subs

1

-3,333

Vegas Odds

1200 

   

Cody Garbrandt

vs

Adrian Yanez

$6,800

DFS Salary

$9,400

15-7-0

Record

17-6-1

11

Knockouts

11

0

Subs

2

333 

Vegas Odds

-450 

   

Kai Kamaka

vs

Luke Riley

$6,900

DFS Salary

$9,300

18-7-1

Record

13-0-0

3

Knockouts

9

1

Subs

0

210 

Vegas Odds

-275 

   

Tracy Cortez

vs

Wang Cong

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

12-3-0

Record

9-1-0

1

Knockouts

2

1

Subs

2

-105 

Vegas Odds

-120 

   

Damian Pinas

vs

Cesar Almeida

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

9-1-0

Record

7-2-0

8

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

0

-250 

Vegas Odds

200 

   

Farid Basharat

vs

John Garza

$9,600

DFS Salary

$6,600

15-0-0

Record

6-1-0

1

Knockouts

3

6

Subs

1

-649 

Vegas Odds

450 

   

Ryan Gandra

vs

Zachary Reese

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

18-10-1

Record

16-5-0

6

Knockouts

7

6

Subs

6

-138 

Vegas Odds

110