New York Mets (28-34) vs Atlanta Braves (37-28)
ATL -145; Total: 8.5
The Mets are coming in with a win on Sunday night, which gave them their first win the month of June. It has really been a tale of two halves for the Mets and we aren’t even at the All-Star Break. From one of the best starts in the league, to six games under .500 and 7.5 games back in the East. The Braves come in tied for first place in the division, with some of the best young players in the league right now. The Braves have their ace on the mound tonight, so we should be in for a good one.
New York Mets
- Mets are 28th in the league for runs scored with 237.
- Mets come in with the fourth worst slugging percentage, sitting at .375, and have only scored eight runs in their last seven games.
- The Mets surprisingly have some of the better pitching performances as of late, but haven’t been able to convert those chances into wins.
- Mets have a .313 wOBA vs right-handed pitchers this season, which exactly 15th in the league, the definition of average.
Players to Watch
Zack Wheeler – Wheeler has pitched six or more innings in four straight starts, while allowing two or fewer earned runs in three of those games. He comes in with a 21% strikeout rate this season, along with a solid 47% ground ball rate.
Todd Frazier – He has a four-game hitting streak in the works, with home runs in two straight games. He one of the shining spots for the Mets, even as they are in a downturn compared to the start of the season.
Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo has looked super strong this year vs right-handed pitchers, with a .458 wOBA and a .343 ISO. This will be a much tougher matchup for him against Foltynewicz, who is allowing a .199 AVG to lefties this year.
Kevin Plawecki – He has a four-game hitting streak going right now with a double in three straight games. Solid bottom of the order hitter, who has solid enough numbers vs RHP.
Atlanta Braves
- The Braves are fourth in the league with 322 runs scored this year.
- Braves have the fourth-highest team batting average sitting at .261.
- They also have the fourth highest slugging percentage at .427.
- The Braves are fifth in the league with an OBP sitting at .329.
Players to Watch
Freddie Freeman – Free Money Freddie. Yes, this guy simply crushes right-handed pitchers with a .397 wOBA and a .208 ISO, and has six home runs against them this year.
Mike Foltynewicz – He has allowed only four earned runs in his last six starts, while racking up 45 strikeouts in that span. Looking like a lock to come away with the win tonight against a weak Mets team.
Nick Markakis – He has hits in nine of his last 10 games, where three of those have been multi-hit games. He comes in with a solid .370 wOBA vs RHP, and an absurdly low 6.5% strikeout rate vs RHP.
Ozzie Albies – Albies had a home run in his most recent game, which is a nice sign from him as that was his first homer since 5/22. The Braves need to see the power back from him, which could come tonight vs Wheeler who is giving up over 1.00 HR/9 to lefties this year.
Props
A batter from either team takes 3 or more consecutive called balls in the 1st inning?
-I’m very borderline on this one. Both pitchers have a walk rate sitting at 9%, which isn’t that great, so we could be in for an early base on balls.
Which team throws more pitches in the first inning?
-This one should be the Mets. The Braves come in with a 20% strikeout rate vs right-handed pitchers this season, which is super low. They take pitches and know how to work a count.
A batter from either team flies out to the center fielder in the 1st innings?
- Going with yes on this one. Both pitchers have solid fly ball rates and with the warmer weather in Atlanta, we should see the ball flying.
Two or more NYM batters reach any 3 ball count in the 1st innings?
- This goes in line with the first bet. If you are on that side, you should be on the same side here, since they are somewhat related.
C. Culberson (ATL) or N. Markakis (ATL) records or assists on an out in the 1st innings?
- Both of these players are outfields, so if you are buying into the fly bat rate of Folty, 37% vs lefties and 32% vs righties, then take the yes on this one.
A NYM batter sees 6 or more pitches in a plate appearance?
- This is one I don’t see happening. This also falls in line with the other two props about the three balls, so take what side you will. But I have faith in Folty and his control, so I’m going with no.
M. Conforto (NYM) swings at 2 or more pitches?
- Going with yes on this one. He has been struggling as of late and simply think he is overmatched against Folty tonight who has a 23% strikeout rate.