Is there anything more exciting than fantasy football draft season? Of course there is! How about Week 1 NFL DFS? You can join all the season-long leagues with million-dollar prizes you want, but you have to wait 18 agonizing weeks to see if you’re even in contention. With daily fantasy football on DraftKings, you can have million-dollar dreams every single week.

If you read my Welcome to the #FAmily letter, then you already know Fantasy Alarm is in your corner for your weekly quest at the big money. We’ve got your back. We have an array of DFS content and tools to help you build the best possible lineups, including a DFS Lineup Generator, ownership projections, the DFS Playbook and individual DFS coaches for each position. We leave no stone unturned.

One of the articles I write each week is called the DFS Dart Board in which I seek out the best DFS values and bargains that mainstream players may not be on. For NFL Week 1, we’re going to get started a little early. Everyone wants to be able to use Ja'Marr Chase and Bijan Robinson, right? So, you need the value picks to help fit them in under the budget. That work starts today.

 

 

 

NFL Week 1 Bargains and Value Picks for DraftKings

Joe Flacco, QB Cleveland Browns ($4,900)

No one likes Cleveland, but everyone LOVES Flacco. Funny how that works, isn’t it? That’s what happens when you get a guy who likes to play huck-it-chuck-it football and throws 40-plus time per game. Add that to the fact that the Bengals' defense was one of the absolute worst last season, ranked in the bottom three in DVOA against the pass, and gave up the 12th-most passing yards per game. While they were able to sign Trey Hendrickson and drafted Shemar Stewart to boost their pass-rush, they did not patch the holes in the secondary. You can expect Flacco to air it out for Week 1 and hopefully rack up a ton of points for us. 

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB Washington Commanders ($4,000)

Based on the amount of hype he is getting here in the preseason, you can expect good ol’ Bill to be a solid cash game play for Week 1. It’s not about what he does on the field; it will be about ownership and given the price tag and the hype, it’s going to be high. We love getting that free square in cash games, especially when it comes at such a bargain. But be very careful about using him in GPP tournaments. Not only will he be heavily-owned, but Jon Impemba pointed out his rushing yard props, and the numbers are not good. That’s not to say we are living and dying by what Vegas is telling us, but they usually have a good grasp on what to expect, and the expectations are not high. Still, a free square at this price is a free square and another opportunity to get a bigger name into your lineup. 

Tank Bigsby, RB Jacksonville Jaguars ($4,600)

I wish he caught a few more passes each year, but I love Bigsby for the early-down work in Jacksonville this year and facing a tomato can run defense like that of the Panthers puts him in a fantastic spot at a discounted rate. We watched Liam Coen take over in Tampa Bay and phase out Rachaad White due to his inefficiency as a runner. Who’s to say he doesn’t do the exact same thing in Jacksonville with Travis Etienne? If you look at the rushing numbers and the peripherals, you’ll notice that Bigsby was, by far and away, the more efficient runner. He’ll get the short-yardage and goal-line work for the time being, so there’s touchdown upside, and at this price, that would be huge for our lineups. 

 

 

 

Calvin Ridley, WR Tennessee Titans ($5,000)

How about something a little contrarian? Don’t fear that questionable tag sitting next to Ridley’s name on DraftKings. He is going to be 100 percent ready for the Titans' first game of the season and the debut of his new BFF, Cam Ward. The two of them have been working well together throughout the preseason, and having a guy who should see a huge target share at this price is a dream. High floor and a high ceiling? Yes, please. Of course, Ward will have some growing pains, and we fully expect Patrick Surtain to be busy in coverage, but until we see reports that he is going to shadow Ridley at every turn, we’ll go against the grain with this pick and maybe hope for a little late-game garbage-time.

Emeka Egbuka, WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,600)

We’ll be tracking the ownership numbers over the course of the next week to see if we can also use the Bucs rookie in GPP tournaments, but this feels like another high-owned, cash-game play. With no Chris Godwin, no Jalen McMillan, and possibly even no Cade Otton, we expect a heavy target share for Egbuka. The Falcons did some offseason work to help in their pass coverage, but this is still a team that gave up the 11th-most passing yards per game last year and will stay focused on Mike Evans. 

Ricky Pearsall, WR San Francisco 49ers ($4,500)

Same as with Egbuka – we’re going to watch the ownership very closely to see whether Pearsall can also be used in GPP tournaments. The thing about Week 1 DFS and draft season is that the herd goes with what the talking heads are most into, and right now that’s guys like Pearsall, Egbuka, and Croskey-Merritt. Did you check out my Fantasy Tourism piece? It tells you everything you need to know about the herd. This match-up against the Seahawks should be a favorable one for Pearsall as he should see a lot of Josh Jobe in coverage. Riq Woolen may spend some time on him if Jobe can’t handle it, but by the time Seattle makes that adjustment, Pearsall could very well have made a strong enough mark that we don’t care. 

 

 

 

Josh Reynolds, WR New York Jets ($3,300)

I think this play for a GPP tournament is going to fly so far under the radar, we may be the only ones who use it. It’s a tough secondary the Jets are facing in Pittsburgh, but their primary focus is going to be watching Garrett Wilson. Reynolds is a sneaky, undervalued play because he knows the Jets' offensive scheme very well, as he worked under OC Tanner Engstrand back in Detroit. He knows the play-calling, the routes, and exactly what Engstrand is teaching Justin Fields. If you’re looking for a GPP play that opens up a boatload of salary, you may want to take a look here.

Hunter Henry, TE New England Patriots ($3,900)

We saw Henry prove to be a strong asset for Drake Maye last year, and he quietly racked up one of the highest target shares for tight ends. We know Maye looks for him to move the chains, but we also know that Maye seeks him out in the end zone when the Pats push it to the 10-yard line. He’s not the cheapest tight end on the board, but he is definitely going to garner more targets than anyone else at the position and in this price range. The Raiders were soft against tight ends last year, and their linebacker corps is not going to be able to cover him.

Arizona Cardinals, D/ST ($3,500)

A sneaky pick-up in season-long drafts and a solid play, even if they are the fourth-highest priced defense out there. Sure, you could throw darts at cheaper defenses like the Dolphins, Patriots, or Jaguars, but the Cardinals are facing the Saints with Spencer Rattler under center. They beefed up their defensive line over the offseason to help stop the run, so look for them to force Rattler into a number of potential turnovers.


 

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