Last week was fantastic for us here at the TE DFS Coach. Jake Ferguson and Theo Johnson each scored two touchdowns. Darren Waller was a top 5 TE as well on the main slate. And Mason Taylor also came out and caught 9 of 12 targets. The only one that really escaped us was AJ Barner, but we don’t really start guys that only run 59% of the routes anyway, so we’ll let them have that one. 

No use sitting around counting last week’s chickens, though, as our eyes are squarely set on this week. And there are a LOT of good matchups to choose from. Some weeks we are fading more players than we actually like, but this week we are trying to pick the best options from a sea of good ones - let’s see if we can do it!

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Top Tier Picks For Week 6

Jake Ferguson TE Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $7,000

The Cowboys have one of the highest implied point totals this week, even with CeeDee Lamb expected to be out again. The Panthers are ranked as the 2nd-worst team vs. the TE per DVOA at FTN Fantasy, and they are allowing the 4th most raw fantasy points per game so far. Not only is Jake Ferguson a target machine, but he leads all tight ends in man-to-man targets, which finally translated to the endzone last week.

Here is the caveat with Ferguson in DFS this week. We had him in the article last week at $4,800 on DraftKings and $6,000 on FanDuel. We still like him on DraftKings at his new $5,300 price as he’s cheaper than Trey McBride over there. But he’s not particularly fast, which doesn’t make him the best play over on FanDuel - where they juice his price to $7,000, making him the most expensive tight end on the slate. Over there, we are using Trey McBride at $6,400 or this next guy. 

Tucker Kraft - DraftKings: $4,700 | FanDuel: $6,700

There are a lot of good matchups for the tight end this week. A lot of the top defenses vs. the TE, like the Eagles, Giants, and Falcons, are off the main slate, while some of the others are playing teams that don’t really use the tight end anyway. With a lot of good options, it boils down to price and platform, like we discussed with Jake Ferguson above.

Tucker Kraft is a guy we like on both platforms. His ability to create big plays translates well to FanDuel, while his price is pretty reasonable on DraftKings. It’s not like we are fading Tyler Warren - there will be a day when Tyler Warren’s combination of receiving, rushing, and/or passing breaks the slate, and we want to be there when it happens, so we will continue to pepper him in. But Tucker Kraft’s matchup against the Bengals defense is simply too good to ignore at home, coming off a bye week. And, with Joe Flacco at QB, the Bengals should keep a higher tempo and potentially punch back a little bit here to keep the action high. 

 

 


 

NFL DFS TE Mid-Tier Picks For NFL Week 5

Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots - DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $5,200

There are two options in the mid-tier - your safe play and your upside play. I mean, at the tight end position, everyone had the upside of scoring two TDs in any given week, so it’s not like Hunter Henry doesn’t have upside, too. But his usage trends more towards solid weekly production with a little extra boost in good matchups. And this is a good matchup.

Henry isn’t blowing you away in any individual category. But he’s hanging right there with the top options in target share, route participation, WR snaps, receptions vs. man-to-man, and contested catches. He is one of the few right ends running high aDot routes at 10.7 yards per target, and his three endzone targets are tied for second behind only Jake Ferguson’s five. So he should be rock solid vs. the Saints this week, especially in cash. 

Darren Waller, TE, Miami Dolphins - DraftKings: $3,500 | FanDuel: $5,200

The only thing that is seemingly holding Darren Waller back right now is conditioning. You can’t just show up after not running for months and just play 50+ snaps of NFL football. They started him off at 28% of the game in his first week. And this past week, he’s gotten up to 50%. We don’t know where he will be this week - maybe they just plan on having him, but a 50% guy, and that’s where he’ll stay. That’s where the risk comes in.

The reward comes from how this guy has looked so far. When he’s in the game, he’s getting the ball. When they’re in the redzone, he’s getting the ball. Despite his having such a limited snap share, he already has a 15% target share since coming back. And his 13.2 aDot and 2.84 yards per route run lead all tight ends this year. Tyreek Hill is gone, so they are leaning on Waller, and that creates big upside in fantasy football. So he’s our high-risk, high-reward play in this range. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Value Picks For NFL Week 5

Jake Tonges TE, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $4,600

When George Kittle went down, the 49ers were a little timid in how they were deploying Tonges. It was a pretty close split between him and the better blocker, Luke Farrell. But as time has gone on here and the confidence in Tonges has grown, so has his role.

Last week, Tonges actually ran 42 routes to 15 for Farrell (to put that in perspective, the hero of the game, Kendrick Bourne, ran 44 routes). It’s rumored that George Kittle will return in Week 7, but, for now, they are expected to lean on Tonges again. With those roles and the receivers still dealing with a variety of ailments, we’re willing to give Tonges one last go here. 

Hunter Long TE, Jacksonville Jaguars - DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $4,700

We don’t really love this player in a vacuum. But when you look into that Jacksonville Jaguars tight end room, it’s pretty clear what the setup is. Brenton Strange was the starter and primary pass-catcher. Johnny Mundt was the blocker. Hunter Long was then the backup for Strange, and Quintin Morris was the backup blocker behind Johnny Mundt. Now Brenton Strange is on IR.

When Strange went down last week, Johnny Mundt maintained his blocking role (20 snaps, 6 routes) while Hunter Long stepped into Strange’s role (35 snaps, 24 routes). The Jaguars could trade for a tight end, but right now, Liam Coen says he’s rolling with what they have. If Long were any more expensive than he is, we might not be interested, but at the bare minimum $2,500 on DraftKings, we’ll throw a dart. It’s free real estate. 

 

 

 

NFL DFS TE Fades For Week 5

Mark Andrews, TE Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $5,300

Maybe the trade rumors will fuel Mark Andrews. Or maybe the Ravens will “showcase” him to show prospective teams he still is worth trading for. But, as long as Cooper Rush is the starting quarterback for the Ravens, I want no part of this pass attack. It’s not even that great of a matchup. 

AJ Barner, TE Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $5,300

Sometimes we will chase last week’s production - if the usage matches the output. In this case, AJ Barner only ran 59% of the routes while Elijah Arroyo ran 44%. And Barner isn’t super athletic, so he doesn’t even fall into that “less if more” category. Barner is probably going to be a hot name with everyone chasing touchdowns when the usage isn’t really conducive to big upside. Wouldn’t be shocked if Arroyo came out and scored the TD instead of one of these weeks - Barner has 16 targets on the season and Arroyo has 10.