Sunday Night Football delivers a pivotal matchup for the AFC playoff picture. The Houston Texans, riding a four-game winning streak, find themselves in position to make a playoff push on the backs of their elite defense. They’ll visit the Kansas City Chiefs who desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Chiefs currently sit at 6-6 and are on the outside looking in at the AFC playoff field. This game isn’t necessarily a playoff eliminator for the loser. But they’ll likely need some help down the stretch if they have any shot at earning a Wild Card spot. Let’s dive in and look at the matchups for Sunday Night Football’s Texans vs. Chiefs DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Texans vs. Chiefs DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 12/7

After starting the season 0-3, the Houston Texans have won seven of their last nine games. On the year, the Texans are giving up the fewest total yards per game (265.7) and the fewest points per game (16.5). The offense, however, is 18th in yards per game (326.8) and they’re 21st in points per game (21.9). That’s not terrible but it does signal some room for improvement. At the end of the day, you just need to score more points than your opponent and the Texans have done that plenty over the last two months.

C.J. Stroud hasn’t quite made the desired improvements upon his electric rookie campaign. From Weeks 1-8 he totaled 11 touchdown passes but also had five interceptions. He was injured in Week 9 and then missed three games. In his return last week against the Indianapolis Colts, he threw for 276 yards but was also picked off once. The matchup doesn’t get much easier Sunday night as Houston has to go on the road for the second straight week to face the defending AFC champions.

The Kansas City Chiefs are in unchartered waters in the Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era. The team is 6-6 and sit in third place in the AFC West. Moreover, they’ve lost three of their last four games. They managed to tread water through their first six games sans Rashee Rice. But even since he’s returned the team is 3-3 and their playoff chances take a huge hit if they lose this game. The Chiefs play their division rivals in three of their last four games this season but that still means difficult matchups against the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are on the horizon. They cannot afford to lose this game because there are 10 teams in the AFC that are playoff-caliber organizations.

The sportsbooks are expecting a rather low-scoring affair as you’ll see below. So we could see some low fantasy scores for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups and the margin for error is incredibly thin when trying to land on the optimal lineup. Let’s dig into the matchups and data for Sunday night’s Texans vs. Chiefs DFS picks!

 

 

 

Texans vs. Chiefs SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Texans +3.5 (-110)
    • Chiefs -3.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Texans (+164)
    • Chiefs (-198)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 41.5 (-112)
    • Under 41.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Texans +3.5 (-105)
    • Chiefs -3.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Texans (+168)
    • Chiefs (-200)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 41.5 (-118)
    • Under 41.5 (-104)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Texans vs. Chiefs SNF, December 7th

It’s December and this game is in the Midwest, so it’s going to be cold. Fortunately for our SNF DFS picks, the weather won’t have many “elements.” Will Houston be at a disadvantage as a team that plays in a controlled environment? Sure. Temperatures will start at roughly 28 degrees around kickoff and maybe drop to 25 degrees by the end of the game. But winds will be very modest and there’s no rain in the schedule at least.

 

Texans vs. Chiefs Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 14

The Houston Texans have already ruled out Jamal Hill and Jaylen Reed on the defensive side while Kamari Lassiter is listed as questionable. The defense will be missing some pieces but overall we should still expect them to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs.

The two key injuries we’re monitoring for Kansas City are to offensive linemen Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor. Both are listed as doubtful as of Saturday so missing two starting offensive linemen would knock down the confidence level for this offense against a fairly active pass rush.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,200

The matchup is definitely going to be difficult. This Houston secondary is no joke. Houston’s defense is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and the second-fewest points to the perimeter pass catchers as well. They’ve only allowed seven touchdowns to the WR position and according to Mike Clay of ESPN, only two receivers have reached 18+ fantasy points against this secondary (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua).

Now this is a slate without many standout matchups or spots we want to take advantage of. But we’ve touched on the nature of this game and how it’s arguably a must-win scenario for the Chiefs. I believe the Chiefs do everything they can to get the ball in their best receiver’s hands.

Rice has six touchdowns in as many games since his suspension to open the season. He’s averaging about seven receptions for roughly 70 yards and a touchdown per game. And he’s seen 12 targets in back-to-back games. Do we want to go crazy and play him at Captain in all our lineups? No. But just given the pure talent he possesses we need to keep him in mind and go with 20-25% exposure at Captain for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $12,800

These two teams met twice last year with the Chiefs claiming victory in both contests. But the passing totals weren’t exactly elite for Patrick Mahomes. In Week 16, the Texans limited Mahomes to just 260 passing yards and a touchdown but he did collect a touchdown with his legs and added 33 rushing yards. When they met again in the playoffs, Mahomes finished with just 177 passing yards and a touchdown.

Obviously we need multiple touchdowns from Mahomes for him to even come close to being optimal at Captain. We want to play Mahomes at Captain when they need him to be Superman. The passing volume should be there if this game is competitive. He’s averaging 36.75 pass attempts per game and he’s added 30 rushing yards in back-to-back games entering this matchup.

Among qualified starting quarterbacks, he ranks 3rd in EPA/Play (0.23) and he’s 6th in success rate (50.8%). The injuries to the offensive line are a bit suspect, but I’m hoping he trusts his instincts and really gets active with his rushing ability. It’s a must-win game and he’s won plenty of big games in his career. I’m expecting him to put the team on his back Sunday night and put them in position to win.

Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $12,000

According to Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, Nico Collins ranked as WR36 through the first nine weeks of the season. But since Week 10, he’s the WR2 in fantasy football. There were some concerns with how he would produce with C.J. Stroud returning last week, but he finished with five receptions for 98 yards and he found the end zone on the ground. In two of his last three games, he’s finished within eight yards of the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings.

In the two games against the Chiefs last year, he combined for 12 receptions on 18 targets for 141 yards. Since the team’s Bye week he has at least 10 targets in five of his last six games and we just saw this Kansas City secondary get torched by CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to the tune of 13 catches for 200 yards and a touchdown between the two of them.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $11,400

I don’t believe Stroud has the necessary ceiling to be optimal at Captain in this matchup. The implied total is low and the Texans have an implied team total of just 19 points as of Saturday night. But it’s because of the low total that even if Stroud just returns 15-to-18 fantasy points, he could still be in the optimal lineup as a flex play, especially if any of his pass catchers are the optimal Captain.

We already touched on Stroud’s performance in his return from injury last week. It was good, but not great. But the Texans need him to be great in this matchup. When these two teams met last year in Week 16, Stroud threw for 244 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but he also had two interceptions. When they met again in the playoffs, Stroud threw for 245 yards with no touchdowns but he did add 42 rushing yards.

I’m hoping both these quarterbacks can rack up some rushing yardage in this game because that helps elevate their floor. The Chiefs have blitzed at a top five rate over their last four games (35.4%) but that hasn’t amounted to much success with just a 1.8% sack rate which ranks dead last in the NFL in that span. Stroud just completed 10-of-12 pass attempts last week against the Colts blitz packages for 157 yards and a 118.8 passer rating. Let’s see if he can have similar success against the Chiefs pass rush Sunday night.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,400

I struggled with who I wanted to plug into the Playbook for our Texans vs. Chiefs DFS picks. It came down to Kelce vs. Xavier Worthy but I’m already planting my flag with Rashee Rice as a Captain despite the poor matchup for almost all the pass catchers for KC.

The matchup doesn’t get much easier for Kelce either. Despite ranking second among tight ends in fantasy points and points per game, the Texans have only allowed three double-digit fantasy points performances to opposing tight ends according to Tristan H. Cockroft of ESPN. Even last week they kept Tyler Warren in check.

Kelce may not pop for the 100-yard bonus, but he still gets volume with a decent 18.6% target share and he’s still a top two target on this offense. We’ll need him to generate production likely through volume but if this team gets inside the red zone we know Mahomes will take some shots in his direction.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $9,600

The Chiefs can’t afford to waste any additional time trying to figure out the backfield. It just feels like they’re going with Kareem Hunt as he has 62 total touches over his last three games since the team’s Bye week.

The matchup isn’t easy for either team’s rushing attack. But Hunt is emerging and getting the volume and he’s $1,000 cheaper than Woody Marks, who will make the next section of this article. Hunt also comes with some touchdown equity as he has seven touchdowns in his last eight games and last week’s performance broke his streak of four straight games finding the end zone.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Woody Marks, RB, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $8,800

The volume is why he made this article, but the production is why he isn’t in the Core Plays. He’s touched the ball 17+ times in three straight games and he hasn’t gone over eight fantasy points in any of those three games.

His involvement in the passing game has been minimal as he has just three catches in his last three games and he’s averaging just 3.4 yards per carry in that stretch. And now he has to go against a Chiefs defense that is top 10 at defending the run. The volume is nice but we even have to deal with Nick Chubb probably taking anywhere from 5-to-10 carries per game. I’m just not very fond of Marks in this matchup but I cannot argue with the volume.

Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $7,400

I love incredibly stupid, arguably conspiracy theory-type stats. But Jayden Higgins has scored in four straight even-numbered weeks dating back to Week 4. The only reason he didn’t score in Week 6 is because the team was on Bye. But entering this Week 14 matchup in primetime, he’s trending well with touchdowns in Weeks 4, 8, 10, and 12.

Among rookie receivers, Higgins has the second-highest yards per route run (2.04) and highest target per route run rate (28.6%) since Week 10. He isn’t doing much after the catch but he is getting targeted deep with a 13.2 average depth of target in this sample size.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $5,800

If Schultz had more touchdown equity, then he might have been listed in the Core Plays section. Alas, he has just one on the season so I cannot recommend him as a core play if I’m not 100% confident in him. 

But he’s still getting plenty of volume. He’s logged at least five receptions in eight of his last 10 games with at least 50 receiving yards in six of his last eight games. That’s a really strong floor for a tight end which is a position relatively dependent on touchdowns. And he’s already matched his reception total from a year ago. He’s coming off a game against the Colts where he touted a 22.8% target share so I’m content plugging him in this week and there is some appeal to playing him as a contrarian Captain, but you probably need him to score twice to be optimal in that kind of lineup construction.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Christian Kirk, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $4,800

Christian Kirk was kept off the stat sheet last week after having arguably his best game of the season in Week 12. But Kirk is still affordable and while he isn’t seeing the field as much as we’d probably like, he did manage 21 targets from Weeks 9-12. I want to believe last week’s performance was more of an outlier since he didn’t register a single target despite being active. It’s not the easiest matchup but with Kansas City’s secondary likely focusing on Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins, things could open up for Kirk to get back on track with some targets and receptions.

Cade Stover, TE, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $1,800

I’ll preface this player recommendation by acknowledging that I really do not like the value options for skill position players at or below $5,000 on DraftKings this week. But we have a low total and it is projected to be a tight game. With that said if you run two options from the D/ST and kicker section, I likely won’t argue with you.

So I’m recommending Stover, who obviously won’t see nearly the volume Schultz will get. But last week Stover saw two targets and actually had four rushing attempts. The rushing totals weren’t impressive or anything, but he was used on third down, short yardage situations. They snapped the ball directly to him out of a shot gun formation on four different plays. So I’m not sure if that sticks, or maybe they get creative and use him in similar situations at the goal line. But I thought it was curious they used him in such a fashion over Woody Marks and Nick Chubb. Again, it could be nothing, but I’m willing to throw him into some builds as a dart throw since the value options kind of suck this week.

Jaylin Noel, WR, Houston Texans – DraftKings: $1,000 | FanDuel: $4,000

This may seem like a rather uninspiring suggestion but in closing out the skill position player portion of our Texans vs. Chiefs DFS picks, we land on Jaylin Noel who correlates well with the Texans D/ST. Noel does get work as a return man and while he’s buried on the Texans wide receiver depth chart, he could still see a couple targets.

If you go the correlation route, Noel and Houston’s D/ST will only cost you $4,600 on DraftKings leaving you with $45,400 for your Captain and the remaining flex spots. If Noel is able to return a punt for a touchdown, you’re cooking with gas and in great shape. But even if he can catch a pass or two combined with a good score from Houston’s D/ST, you’re still establishing a good floor without breaking the bank.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

With a low implied total and the Chiefs favored by roughly a field goal, we’ll be looking at the D/ST’s and kickers for this matchup. I am actually surprised that DraftKings is discounting the Chiefs D/ST with a $3,600 price tag. Perhaps it’s the name recognition of the Kansas City Chiefs or maybe they want to lure us into a trap play.

The Houston Texans are a team that doesn’t blitz often (26.9%) but they still generate pressure at a 36.9% rate which is only behind the Minnesota Vikings (38.9%). The Texans also rank 6th in sack rate at 7.9%. Over their last four games, their sack rate has increased to 11.5% according to Sam Hoppen. The Chiefs offensive line has played pretty well all season long. But as we mentioned earlier, we’re monitoring the injuries to Trey Smith and Jawaan Taylor. Over their last four games, this offensive line is allowing pressure at a 30.8% clip. I anticipate that despite the matchup against Patrick Mahomes and Co., the Texans will still be a draw for NFL DFS Showdown lineups.

The Chiefs defense is in play simply because of the season-long struggles of C.J. Stroud. However, over their last four games they’ve given up 101 total points with just five sacks and one defensive takeaway. And in general, they haven’t quite exhibited a huge break-the-slate kind of ceiling for fantasy football with just three double-digit performances and zero over 15 points. The Chiefs do blitz at the sixth-highest rate (30.6%) but they’re 25th in sack rate (5.4%).

The kickers, if you can afford them, might be where we can find some affordable SNF DFS picks, because both kickers can return double-digit fantasy points. Harrison Butker didn’t have a field goal attempt on Thanksgiving against the Dallas Cowboys because the Chiefs scored four touchdowns. But in his previous three games he did go 9-for-9 on his FGA’s. One concern I do have is that since Week 4, he only has two field goals from 40+ yards out.

The same cannot be said for Ka’imi Fairbairn who seems to be converting from deep almost every week. On the season he has made 14 field goals from 40+ yards out and he’s actually missed two games as well. It helps that the Texans offense has moved the ball well into their opponent’s side of the field, but they’ve put Fairbairn in position for a lot of deep field goal attempts. He’s strangely cheaper than Butker and has a very safe floor and a great ceiling. He’s returned at least eight fantasy points in all but one game so far this season and he’s made 16 field goals over his last five games.

 

 

 

Texans vs. Chiefs DFS Player Pool: SNF, 12/7

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