The NFL closes out another NFL Sunday with a Week 9 NFC matchup in primetime. I like to call this the Washington Rivalry as the Seattle Seahawks (Washington state) will take on the Washington D.C. representatives, the Washington Commanders.

It certainly feels as if it’s a bit of an unfair matchup for the Commanders despite being the home team. The Commanders have dropped three straight games and recently played on Monday Night Football in Week 8 so it’s a short week for them. The Seattle Seahawks are coming off their Bye week and have fresher legs. It’s a bit of an odd scheduling choice but we have some key injuries that are impacting our Seahawks vs. Commanders DFS picks so let’s take a look at the latest NFL DFS Showdown Playbook!

 

 

 

Seahawks vs. Commanders DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 11/2

Week 9 presents us with a great NFC matchup in primetime as the Seattle Seahawks head East to take on the Washington Commanders in Landover, Maryland. The Commanders have had a rough go of it lately. They’ve dropped three straight games and core pieces on offense have missed time due to injuries. Because of this, the Commanders find themselves in a situation where this is arguably a must-win game. I find this particular tweet rather interesting as we prepare for another Sunday Night Football matchup. If the Commanders win this game they’re playoff chances increase to 18%. But if they lose and drop to 3-6, their chances drop to 5%. That’s incredibly disappointing for a team that made the NFC Championship game last season.

By comparison, the Seahawks are in great shape. We already touched on how they’ll be the fresher team even if they’re dealing with their own injuries on offense and defense. If they lose this game, their playoff chances are still rather high at 65%. But if they win, their chances increase to 87%.

The Seahawks went into their Bye week with heavy momentum. They’re averaging 27 points per game on offense and the defense gave up just 25 total points in Weeks 7 and 8 to the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. They’re tough to throw on and arguably harder to run on. The NFL really didn’t do Washington many favors with this scheduling. And there are two rookies on Seattle that are in great spots for breakout performances following the team’s week off.

For Washington, it feels like they need all hands on deck but that’s a little sketchy because they’re dealing with injuries. Terry McLaurin won’t play in this matchup and it’s frustrating for the fans who were excited about what this offense could do but they just can’t seem to get Daniels, McLaurin, and Deebo on the field together on a consistent basis. Even rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt has struggled in great matchups recently. Hopefully Washington can find a spark as we take a look at the Seahawks vs. Commanders DFS picks for another NFL DFS Showdown Playbook!

 

 

 

Seahawks vs. Commanders SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Seahawks -3 (-105)
    • Commanders +3 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Seahawks (-162)
    • Commanders (+136)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 48.5 (-105)
    • Under 48.5 (-115)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Seahawks -3 (-105)
    • Commanders +3 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Seahawks (-158)
    • Commanders (+134)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 48.5 (-105)
    • Under 48.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Seahawks vs. Commanders SNF, November 2nd

It’ll be a little bit chilly for our Seahawks vs. Commanders DFS picks. The weather for Landover, MD tonight calls for temperatures around 50 degrees at kickoff and those will drop a degree or two every hour. There will be some clouds in the sky but there’s no rain in the forecast and there’s no wind projected for this NFC matchup.

 

Seahawks vs. Commanders Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 9

The big injury we’re monitoring on the Seattle side is to Cooper Kupp. He was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, then he was limited on Thursday, and then he did not practice on Friday. That’s the trend we do not want to see for our SNF DFS picks. I’m operating as if he is out for this game, but we’ll know officially 90 minutes prior to kickoff. Seattle has also ruled out Jake Bobo, Dareke Young, Julian Love, and Christian Haynes.

The Washington Commanders will fortunately get Jayden Daniels back for this game after he missed three previous games in the first half of the season. However, Terry McLaurin has been ruled out and Laremy Tunsil is questionable which could impact the offensive line in a big way. Zach Ertz seems locked in for a sizable opportunity since Colson Yankoff has been ruled out and John Bates is questionable.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks - DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $13,400

The Seahawks are fresh off their Bye week and Jaxon Smith-Njigba was on an absolute heater heading into the team’s week off. In three straight games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans he popped for exactly eight receptions, a touchdown in each game, and he recorded 120+ receiving yards in all three contests. That’s an average of 30.9 fantasy points per game on DraftKings.

Now it’s not exactly wise of the Washington Commanders to simply reply with “Who’s that?” when asked about covering JSN. To be fair the reporters were asking defensive tackle, Daron Payne, who won’t be tasked with that shadow coverage. But Washington is giving up the 7th most passing yards per game on the season (244) and that number inflates to 259 over their last three games.

His usage is absolutely off the charts this season. He’s the only wide receiver/tight end in the NFL (with at least 150 routes) with a first-read target share over 40% and a first down per route run rate over 0.15 and he’s even flirting with 0.20 regarding that metric. There’s still plenty of season left but he’s having an historic campaign so far in 2025 and he’s surprisingly on pace to break the single season record for receiving yards. He’s easily the best play on the slate and I’m concerned Washington will have no shot at containing him.

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $12,800

Jayden Daniels returns this week after missing his third game due to injury. He’s certainly regressed from the stellar season he had as a rookie in 2024 but he still has upside considering he can generate production with his legs. In four-of-five starts this season he’s rushed for 35+ yards but he has lost two fumbles.

He hasn’t necessarily done anything as special as last season even with the addition of Deebo Samuel Daniels ranks 21st among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.06), 16th in success rate (47.4%), and he’s 11th in average depth of target (8.4). Perhaps the biggest concern is that he’s 27th completion percentage over expected (-2.0%) but again he’s played through injury and missed some time so there’s the second half of the season for these numbers to correct themselves.

I don’t particularly love this matchup and at full strength, I believe the Seahawks have a top 10 defense. Since Week 1, only Baker Mayfield has thrown for over 250 yards on this secondary. On the season, the Seahawks have only allowed 18+ points to an opposing offense on two occasions. They run zone coverage schemes at the fifth-highest rate in the league (84.8%) according to Sam Hoppen of ESPN Bet, Daniels has just a 0.9% touchdown rate on 115 plays against zone coverage this season. Again, there’s upside if he’s healthy and comfortable running, but we do need his best performance of the season to justify using him as a Captain.

Deebo Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $10,400

Deebo Samuel is no stranger to facing the Seattle Seahawks as a former member of the San Francisco 49ers. In Week 10 last year, Deebo only saw five targets but he caught three of them for 102 yards and a score against Seattle. In Week 14 of the 2023 season, he caught seven-of-nine targets for 149 yards and a touchdown while adding a touchdown on the ground as well. And prior to that game, in Week 12 of the same season, he again caught seven-of-nine targets for 79 yards with another rushing touchdown. In total, he’s played against Seattle eight times in his career. In five of those games, he popped for over 100 receiving yards and he’s scored seven touchdowns against this team.

Now we shouldn’t dwell on those numbers too much. For starters, Deebo’s now with a different offense and the Seahawks defense is looking better in 2025 than it did while Deebo was with San Francisco. But I do like Deebo’s upside with Jayden Daniels back for this matchup and Terry McLaurin once again ruled out. Washington is struggling to get the running game going so I’m expecting heavy volume for Deebo. If he pops for another huge game, it’s not simply because he’s historically been great against Seattle, but it’s likely because he’s Jayden Daniels’ best weapon to utilize on offense.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

Sam Darnold has been solid but unspectacular. There is nothing I can really say negatively about his level of play with Seattle in his first season with the team. They’re poised to make an appearance in the playoffs, and he’s completed 68.2% of his pass attempts for 12 touchdowns through seven games.

The fantasy numbers are rather pedestrian as he really only has one game where he really spiked for a huge performance and that came in the loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. But he ranks 5th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.27), 7th in success rate (52.7%), 3rd in completion percentage over expected (9.1%), 6th in turnover-worthy plate rate (1.8%), and he’s 1st in average depth of target (9.2). In all honesty, based on how I wrote up Jayden Daniels in the Captain section, you can certainly argue that Darnold deserves a spot at the top of the article too and you probably wouldn’t be wrong.

The Commanders defense is also nothing special. They’ve allowed 24+ points to six-of-eight opposing offenses this year and they can be beaten on the ground and through the air. The matchup is great on paper for Darnold, but I’m worried he could also just return about 16-20 fantasy points on DraftKings and that might not be enough to be optimal for our SNF DFS picks.

Tory Horton, WR, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $3,000

I was all over the place with where I wanted to put Horton in this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown Playbook. For our SNF DFS picks, he could’ve easily made the value plays section, but that would’ve been too easy. With Cooper Kupp possibly missing this game, I even considered him putting him in the section above, but I’m just trying to keep expectations in check and not get ahead of myself.

If Kupp is ruled out for this game then Horton is the best value on the slate and you can utilize him as you see fit, and that includes playing him at Captain because you can basically do whatever you want with the rest of your build. Per Colin McTamany of FTN Fantasy, JSN and Cooper Kupp combine for nearly half the target share in Seattle and both run over 85% of the team’s routes. Horton has emerged in his rookie campaign but he’s obviously behind those two on the depth chart. Yet he’s still played 42.1% of the team’s offensive snaps and touts a 56.1% route share.

We also know he can come up with big plays in the end zone after he scored in three of the team’s first five games. If Kupp is ruled out, and with all the attention going to JSN, Horton might emerge as the best point-per-dollar kind of play and I’d probably aim to play him in every single one of my lineups.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $11,200

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,600

In a perfect world I would only have to mention Kenneth Walker in this section. But because the Seattle running back usage is so hard to read given their commitment to Zach Charbonnet, I have to list these two together. Kenneth Walker celebrated in 25th birthday in Week 7 on Monday Night Football and he got 17 carries. Did he find the end zone? Nope! However, Charbonnet scored twice from inside the two-yard line.

The matchup is good for both this week as Washington has struggled to stop the run. Over their last three games, Washington is allowing the 5th most rushing yards per game (148.3) and opposing offenses are attempting 29.3 rush attempts per game in that span.

James Koh of Yahoo! Fantasy Sports points out this is particularly a good matchup for Walker, who averages 4.8 yards per carry on designed zone runs to the outside. The Commanders are giving up the most yards per carry on outside runs (5.5). I’ll once again acknowledge that I prefer Walker over Charbonnet but we have to imagine Charb is due for 12+ touches Sunday night so both are in play.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $9,400

I am reluctantly putting JCM in the Playbook. I don’t love the play. In more advantageous matchups he’s had his share of struggles. But I also wanted to avoid the “Why didn’t Bill make the Playbook” questions in our NFL DFS Discord channel. Over his last three games, he’s seen 39 carries for 119 total rushing yards (3.05 yards per carry). And mind you, he had very advantageous matchups in two of those games against the Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys.

The efficiency has not been very good and the matchup is not an easy one as we dig into the best plays for our Seahawks vs. Commanders DFS picks. The Seahawks give up the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL (75.7) and they rank 1st in defensive EPA/Rush (-0.24), 6th in stuffed run rate (22.1%), 5th in yards before contact per attempt (0.93), and 1st in yards after contact per attempt (2.05).

I am cautiously optimistic that with Jayden Daniels back from injury that he could bounce back and perform well while facing less heavy boxes. But the efficiency has been tough to deal with and this is a brutal matchup.

Zach Ertz, TE, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $7,200

I don’t mind Ertz has a low-end mid-tier play. I thought about putting him in the values section since I have Horton as a core play, but Ertz isn’t really priced as a value. The good news is that he has a decent matchup. The Seahawks have a great defense, but they do struggle to defend tight ends. And when you consider that Terry McLaurin has been ruled out and that Deebo Samuel is still a bit beat up while struggling to create separation, it’s not a bad spot to pay for Ertz.

But like all tight ends, he needs to score. Ertz has returned double-digit fantasy points in four-of-eight games this year. However, he’s found the end zone in those four games as well. He’s averaging less than five fantasy points per game in games where he isn’t finding the end zone. He also isn’t a huge volume play but alas he has seen at least six targets in three straight games. Tread carefully with this play because at the end of the day, there isn’t a great ceiling with this recommendation for our Seahawks vs. Commanders DFS picks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Luke McCaffrey, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $5,000

I don’t love this price tag, but I dig the opportunity for McCaffrey heading into this matchup. From Weeks 5-7, McCaffrey’s snap share fluctuated between 30-45% but last week he managed to play over half the snaps against the Kansas City Chiefs. Granted, Terry McLaurin got hurt again and that likely played a role in McCaffrey’s increased work.

But McLaurin has already been ruled out for this game and that bodes well for McCaffrey and the other cost-effective pass catchers on Washington. He hasn’t seen more than three targets in any game this season so hopefully that can change in this matchup. But similar to Zach Ertz, McCaffrey hasn’t been able to reach double-digit fantasy points without finding the end zone this season.

Jeremy McNichols, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $4,400

McNichols may benefit from a negative game script in this matchup. Hey may not see much usage in the running game. The Commanders still seem committed to JCM despite the inefficiency, but McNichols has been more involved in the passing game. Even if we view him as a wide receiver, he has 10 receptions in his last three games. He’s seen multiple targets in five straight games and either in a neutral or trailing game script he’s due for some volume in the passing game again. If you can find a receiving yardage line of 15.5 yards, I would take the over but I also think he can go over 2.5 receptions as well.

If you want to save a little more money off this play then consider Chris Moore, who did nothing in Week 8 against the Chiefs. However, in Weeks 6 and 7 (when Jayden Daniels played), Moore saw five targets in both those games against the Bears and Cowboys.

Elijah Arroyo, TE, Seattle Seahawks – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $3,400

I do like AJ Barner in this spot as well because he seems to get red zone targets at a stupid rate. So let’s dig into Arroyo because this is one of those classic “Post-Bye week rookie breakout” opportunities. Let’s not forget that Arroyo was a second-round draft selection by the Seattle Seahawks and the stars are aligning for a big game. Sure, that applies to Tory Horton as well who we really like as well.

But the Seahawks will be without Jake Bobo as well so perhaps they try to give their rookie pass catchers some traction. The Commanders are coming off a short week of prep and last Monday they allowed Travis Kelce, who is 36 years old, to go for six receptions (on eight targets) for 99 yards and a score.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The Seattle Seahawks are on the road and they are favored by a field goal. The implied total is rather high, but I still like getting exposure to the Seahawks. Sure, Jayden Daniels gives Washington a better chance to win than Marcus Mariota. But if Laremy Tunsil is inactive then we can feel better about the Seattle D/T. They rank top 12 in pass rush win rate (42%) and sack rate (7.3%). They generate pressure at a 31.6% clip despite only blitzing on 17.7% of their defensive snaps. They aren’t forcing many turnovers which is a bummer, but they also don’t give up many points.

I don’t really want anything to do with the Commanders defense. They are at home but in their last three games they’re allowing over 30 points per game and 400 yards of offense per game. I don’t love that especially when we account for Seattle’s potential for explosive plays.

Jason Myers is a great correlative play because he’s been offering a nice floor/ceiling combination for a position that’s rather hard to project. He’s returned at least eight fantasy points in all but one game this year while going for 10+ fantasy points in four games. Strangely enough, in his lone “dud” game, the shootout the Seahawks got into with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Myers wasn’t given many opportunities to kick field goals. He has five games this year with multiple field goals and eight of his field goals made have come from 40+ yards out.

Matt Gay is set to return for Washington and he’s fine as a flex option but he lacks the consistency of Myers. Gay has only converted on 10-of-14 field goal attempts this season and he’s only converted one field goal of 40+ yards since Week 5. Jayden Daniels returning does raise his floor a bit and it helps us feel better about Washington moving the ball up and down the field. But with Seattle not yielding many points to opposing offenses, we can’t feel as good about Gay compared to Myers.

 

 

 

Seahawks vs. Commanders DFS Player Pool: SNF, 11/2

Player Pool

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