We close out the final NFL DFS Showdown Playbook of the regular season with a matchup for the AFC North division crown. The Baltimore Ravens head to Western Pennsylvania to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The winner advances and partakes in the AFC playoffs. The loser sees their season come to a close and regardless of the result, both organizations face significant personnel decisions in the offseason. Given the do-or-die nature of this game, we have plenty of options to consider for our Ravens vs. Steelers DFS picks, so let’s take a look at the top NFL DFS Showdown picks for our DraftKings and FanDuel contests!

And for those with a knack for getting some betting action for this Sunday Night Football slate, we’ve got everything you need! Elevate your football strategy with our Expert Picks and algorithmic Data Edge Picks designed to crush the spread. Scan the market for player prop value using our Prop Finder and real-time Odds Finder. Finally, validate every angle of your wager with our deep historical Betting Trends.

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Steelers DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 1/4

It’s win or go home for our Ravens vs. Steelers DFS picks as we wrap up another NFL regular season. The Baltimore Ravens obviously came into this season with high hopes of a deep playoff run with two-time NFL MVP, Lamar Jackson. But Jackson’s dealt with injuries, Derrick Henry got off to a slow start, and the defense hasn’t been as dominant as we’re used to seeing with Baltimore.

After starting the season 1-5, the Ravens would win five straight games to get to 6-5. Then they’d go on to lose three of their next five games and they enter this matchup at 8-8. It’s hard to imagine what the offseason could look like if the Ravens lose this game with all the talent they have. Derrick Henry turns 32 on Sunday so a win and a big performance is one heck of a way to ring in another trip around the sun. But if they lose, would the Ravens entertain the possibility of trading Lamar Jackson? They could certainly get quite the haul in dealing him but trading a two-time NFL MVP in the prime of his career is not exactly a recipe for success. Or would they possibly move on from John Harbaugh? He was once at the forefront of advanced analytics as a forward thinker, but they’ve only made the AFC Championship game once in the Lamar/Harbaugh era.

On the other side of the field, we’re looking at similar questions with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The fanbase has grown tired of Mike Tomlin, the longest-tenured coach in the NFL. We can all assume they’ll be looking for a new quarterback in the offseason as Aaron Rodgers has hinted at retirement following this year. The Steelers have looked great at times and they’ve also looked completely lost other weeks. It’s hard to get a read on what version of this team shows up when it matters most.

But we do close this season out with another Sunday Night Football DFS Showdown Playbook featuring two juggernauts from the AFC North. It’ll be cold, and we should expect some great battles in the trenches in what could be a very close game. Here are the top Ravens vs. Steelers DFS picks for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Steelers SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Ravens -3.5 (-120)
    • Steelers +3.5 (+100)
  • Money Line:
    • Ravens (-205)
    • Steelers (+170)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 40.5 (-115)
    • Under 40.5 (-105)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Ravens -3.5 (-120)
    • Steelers +3.5 (-102)
  • Money Line:
    • Ravens (-210)
    • Steelers (+176)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 40.5 (-115)
    • Under 40.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Ravens vs. Steelers SNF, January 4th

There’s very little chance of precipitation for this matchup but it’ll be a cold one outdoors. Temperatures will be in the low 20’s and possibly creeping into the teens by the time this game finishes. Winds will at least be light so we can expect this to be a classic AFC North matchup in the cold.

 

Ravens vs. Steelers Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 18

As of Friday’s injury report, the Ravens are only listing three players as questionable: Rashod Bateman, Taven Bryan, and Marlon Humphrey. Bateman’s been battling the flu all week and has not practiced although he did make an attempt on Friday before the team rested him. Marlon Humphrey has also missed practice this week with an illness, so we’ll be monitoring their situations leading up to kickoff.

Update: Rashod Bateman has been ruled OUT for Week 18.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had a rather clean injury report on Friday. Nobody carries an injury designation heading into this matchup, so we’ll just need to keep an eye on who they list as a healthy scratch 90 minutes before kickoff.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $12,600

Lamar has not had a very good year. He’s missed four games and played sparingly in a couple others as well. For those who drafted him in season-long fantasy football formats, you were obviously expecting more than just two rushing touchdowns. He only has five games all season with 20+ fantasy points per DraftKings scoring, and zero over 30 fantasy points.

But for our Ravens vs. Steelers DFS picks, we just need him to be great for this one game. The AFC North title, and a spot in the playoffs, are both on the line. The Ravens need Lamar to be Superman on Sunday and he practiced in full and said he feels great heading into the matchup.

Among qualified starting quarterbacks, Lamar has only ranked 14th in EPA/Play (0.09), 13th in success rate (47.4%), and 12th in completion percentage over expected (1.7%) according to Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen on X/Twitter). Those numbers might not be too bad when you consider he’s played through injury and he ranks 6th in average depth of target (8.8) so when he’s throwing it, he’s going fairly deep. Again, with season-long fantasy football in the books, let’s wipe the slate clean and go back to the well with a former NFL MVP with a division title on the line.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $13,200

If Lamar isn’t 100% or if you just want a safer MVP/Captain play that you can use with more confidence, Derrick Henry is probably your guy. Among all our Ravens vs. Steelers DFS picks, we should anticipate Henry carrying the most ownership and we also have a birthday boy narrative for this game!

Henry has three straight games collecting the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings. It could’ve been four straight games, but he came up six yards short of the mark in Week 14 against these Pittsburgh Steelers. But he has 444 total rushing yards in his last three games, and he has SIX touchdowns in his last two outings.

The Ravens offensive line ranks 11th in stuffed run rate (15.3%) and they’re 3rd in yards before contact per carry (1.89) but the Steelers run defense has been pretty elite of late ranking 5th in Defensive EPA/Rush (-0.15). But you have to put your faith in Henry getting volume in this matchup with the division title on the line. The only game script where he may get phased out is if the Steelers get a big lead since Henry doesn’t have much involvement in the passing game.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $11,200

When these two teams met back in Week 14, Flowers was targeted 11(!) times. That’s the kind of volume you’d expect from a former first-round wide receiver, but the Ravens don’t consistently feed him as much as we’d like. Flowers ultimately finished Week 14 with eight receptions for 124 yards. In his last two games against the Steelers, he’s gone for 100+ yards and in four career games against Pittsburgh he’s averaging five receptions for 84 receiving yards.

Flowers has some momentum as well. From Weeks 2-14 he was kept out of the end zone, but he’s now scored in three straight games. Ball security has been an issue, but he can make plays on his own in the open field with big gains after the catch. It all boils down to the volume he receives. If he can get a heavy share of targets, there’s boom potential. But if it’s a modest game where Baltimore leans mostly on the run then we’ll get the negative side of the variance.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $9,600

Normally when the Pittsburgh Steelers have been in a primetime Showdown slate this season, I’ve lumped Gainwell and Jaylen Warren together. For our Ravens vs. Steelers DFS picks to wrap the season up, I’m going to separate them because I think this game script favors Gainwell slightly. And that’s not to say Warren isn’t eligible as a Captain/MVP candidate. He certainly is and likely gets more carries than Gainwell in this matchup.

But we just saw in Week 14 that in this rivalry matchup, Gainwell has the ability to get seven targets and that’s great for a running back on any NFL DFS slate. Neither Gainwell nor Warren were efficient runners when given an opportunity in the first game between these teams. But the Steelers also had DK Metcalf for that first matchup, and he’s suspended for this week’s finale. I anticipate Gainwell could see even more work as a receiver as the Steelers need all hands on deck to keep pace with Baltimore Sunday night.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $11,600

We’re basically making the same argument for Rodgers as we did for Jackson. Rodgers really hasn’t displayed a huge ceiling this year. He’s only collected 20+ fantasy points on DraftKings just three times this season, and he obviously doesn’t have the rushing upside.

However, he has 80 total pass attempts in his last two games so they are leaning on him more with the season on the line. And we have to keep in mind, this is potentially his last game if the Steelers don’t win. And this season has been what Rodgers has wanted. He just wanted to go out on a contender with a shot to make the playoffs for one final run.

Over his last four games he’s 12th among qualified starting quarterbacks in EPA/Play (0.14) and he’s 5th in turnover-worthy play rate (1.3%) according to Sam Hoppen. You can make the argument Rodgers is a big reason why the Steelers are even in position to win the division so if this is the final game of his career, I expect him to go out slingin’.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,600

I won’t elaborate too much on Warren for the sheer fact that the argument I made for Kenneth Gainwell above can mostly apply to Warren. The Steelers will mix & match these two running backs while I anticipate Warren getting a few more carries. And as we already mentioned, neither running back was efficient in the ground game. Both hit pay dirt through the passing game volume.

Gainwell probably does get more involved in the passing game than Warren but we don’t necessarily fade Warren because he can still go out and provide a dozen carries and maybe two or three receptions. If he finds the end zone it’s likely he’s optimal as a flex play.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Play

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,600

There aren’t many great options on DraftKings in the $6K and $7K ranges. Kenneth Gainwell is $8,800. Adam Thielen is $5,600. Sandwiched between them you’ll find Andrews at a reasonable price tag, and you’ll also see some unplayable backup quarterbacks.

I can’t say that I have a ton of confidence in this play, but we can hang our hat on the fact that the Steelers have struggled to defend the tight end position of late. Last week Harold Fannin may have finished with just two receptions for 30 yards. But he left early due to an injury he sustained while scoring a touchdown. In Week 15, Darren Waller and Greg Dulcich combined for nine receptions, 112 yards, and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Isaiah Likely found the end zone against this defense back in Week 14. Colston Loveland also found the end zone against the Steelers.

Andrews did recently sign a contract extension with the Ravens which is surprising cause he’ll turn 31 in September when the season starts, and he has regressed this season. But let’s not forget how last season ended. It was in the AFC Divisional round where the Ravens scored a touchdown with less than two minutes to go against the Buffalo Bills and Andrews dropped a game-tying two-point conversion. Don’t you think he’d like a shot at redemption to help Baltimore get back into the playoffs and earn a home game next week?

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Jonnu Smith, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $3,400

Part of me feels like this is one of those games where Arthur Smith gets very creative with how he utilizes his tight ends, specifically Jonnu Smith. The narrative is perfectly in his favor. DK Metcalf is still suspended and Darnell Washington is not available. The Steelers love running 13-personnel, but they can’t quite do that without Washington, and Metcalf’s absence leaves targets open. Smith caught all five of his targets last week and even had two rushing attempts.

One reason to be cautious is that Baltimore has been defending tight ends rather well since Roquan Smith returned from injury. When these two teams met in Week 14, the Ravens did an outstanding job keeping the Pittsburgh tight ends in check. So while Pat Freiermuth is on the table, I’m thinking we chase the production and upside with the more athletic tight end in the group as he can possibly move around the field more. And if you need an absolute punt, then Connor Heyward enters the discussion in case the Steelers are firmly committed to heavy 13-personnel usage. 

Keaton Mitchell, RB, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $3,800

Even in a Week 17 matchup where Derrick Henry touted 36 carries, the Ravens still found a way to get Keaton Mitchell 11 touches. Sure, it helped that they didn’t have Lamar Jackson so despite Henry’s heavy volume, they almost had to feature Mitchell a bit.

But 11 touches are still solid for a value running back. Moreover, it marked the third straight game where Mitchell saw at least eight carries. He is a bit touchdown/big play dependent because Baltimore still leans heavily on Henry in the red zone. And as they should.

But if you’d rather save salary off this play you can consider Rasheen Ali who has at least two receptions in four straight games and currently seems more likely to catch a pass than Henry at this point.

Calvin Austin, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers – DraftKings: $3,800 | FanDuel: $8,600

All the pass catchers are viable for the Pittsburgh Steelers for our SNF DFS picks because the Ravens have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year. The most expensive pass catcher for Pittsburgh on DraftKings, who is not a running back, is Adam Thielen. Thielen is serviceable and not too expensive. But when you account for the suspension to DK Metcalf and the injury to Darnell Washington, there’s tremendous value with Pittsburgh’s wide receivers and tight ends.

Austin didn’t play in Week 17 and he’s been hobbled by a hamstring injury. But let’s not forget this is a player who had previously been priced up in the $6K range on DraftKings for previous Showdown slates earlier this year.

While he never really popped for a huge game, he does have six games this season with at least five targets. And that’s in just 13 games. He practiced in full on Friday and doesn’t carry an injury designation so I’m operating as if he can see five-to-seven targets and that’s great volume for a receiver in this price range. But don’t sleep on Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Scotty Miller. They both saw decent volume last week and I still anticipate both can maintain involvement in Week 18.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

This game isn’t projecting to be a shootout by any means. As of Saturday morning the over/under sat at just 40.5 points which is low for a single game, but not in comparison to the rest of the slate. The Ravens are favored by roughly a field goal which gives them an implied team total of 22 points while the Steelers are at 18.5 points. For this reason, both D/ST’s are automatically in play for this matchup. 

The Ravens D/ST didn’t play particularly well when these two organizations met back in Week 14. But in three games since that matchup they have nine sacks and have forced a pair of turnovers in each matchup. The Ravens didn’t boast a great pass rush on the season. They were outside the top 20 in pressure rate, blitz rate, and sack rate. But according to Sam Hoppen, over their last four games they were top 10 in both pressure rate (34.0%) and non-blitz pressure rate (35.4%). That could simply be a statistic indicative of the poor offensive lines they faced in that span. But the Steelers have been great all season in pass protection ranking 1st in pressure rate allowed (22.5%) and 4th in pass block win rate (70.0%). When these two teams met four weeks ago, the Ravens only yielded 318 yards of offense and were difficult to run on. But they didn’t get a sack, didn’t force a turnover, and the Steelers offense still scored 27 points.

The Steelers haven’t boasted an elite pass rush this season but for this crucial AFC North matchup they’ll at least have T.J. Watt back with the AFC North crown on the line. Pittsburgh’s defense was torched on the ground by Baltimore back in Week 14. Derrick Henry, Keaton Mitchell, and Lamar Jackson combined for 213 rushing yards and Lamar Jackson added a touchdown with his legs in addition to the passing totals. Since then the Steelers have been more of a challenge to run on. De’Von Achane only rushed for 60 yards on this defense, but he did add 67 receiving yards as well. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs totaled just 16 rushing yards on 11 carries, but Gibbs salvaged his day with 10 receptions for 66 yards and a touchdown through the air. Last week the Cleveland Browns had four different players rush for 78 yards on 25 attempts in their first game without Quinshon Judkins. Tread carefully with both D/ST’s but considering Vegas is predicting a low-scoring game, both are in play and can be optimal with a D/ST touchdown.

Both kickers can be correlated appropriately depending on your lineup stack. Neither Chris Boswell nor Tyler Loop stand out as elite options, but it’s a low-scoring game and with no wind that bodes well for the kickers to put some points on the board. In his last six games, Boswell has three performances with multiple field goal attempts and three other performances with zero attempts. That’s called variance, folks! Loop is viable as well, but the Ravens have been great at moving the ball down the field regardless of who is at quarterback. As strange as it is, Loop hasn’t made a field goal from 40+ yards out since Week 11 and in Baltimore’s last six games he’s only attempted one field goal from long range and it was a miss. So mix and match the D/ST’s and kickers with balance as I wouldn’t want to be too heavy on either side but I do give the kickers slight preference.

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Steelers DFS Player Pool: SNF, 1/4

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