And just like that we are already in the second half of the 2025 NFL season. It’s hard to believe the season has gone by this quickly but alas we’re kicking off Week 10 with a matchup out of the AFC West. The Las Vegas Raiders head to Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos as both organizations are heading in opposite directions. The Raiders are 2-6 and have lost six of their last seven games while the Broncos are sitting at 7-2 and sit atop the division on a six-game winning streak. It’s not the most exciting NFL DFS Showdown Playbook I’ve ever written but let’s take a look at the top plays and strategies and kick off Week 10 with our Raiders vs. Broncos DFS picks!

 

 

 

Raiders vs. Broncos DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 11/6

The 2025 NFL Trade Deadline came and went this past Tuesday and we saw the Las Vegas Raiders finally trade Jakobi Meyers to the Jacksonville Jaguars, their opponent from this past Sunday. The Jaguars have had issues all season with drops and injuries among their wide receivers, and Meyers had wanted out of Vegas since training camp. We’ll touch on a few pass catchers in the player pool for the Raiders who could see an increased role with Meyers out of the picture.

Sometimes Thursday Night Football can deliver a treat like in Week 7 when the Cincinnati Bengals went on the road with Joe Flacco and beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 33-31. Then you have instances like the last two weeks where the winning team secures the victory by 22+ points. These short weeks throw a wrinkle into the NFL DFS analysis a bit and this matchup is heavily favored in one team’s favor.

The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off a devastating overtime loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 9. They had an opportunity to tie it up in overtime, but a tie does very little for their season at this point. They likely aren’t making the playoffs so you might as well chase a win for team morale or take the loss and improve your draft position for the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft.

The Raiders certainly have plenty of holes. On offense they do have a promising, young running back in Ashton Jeanty. And they have arguably the best tight end in the league with Brock Bowers who looked amazing in his return from injury in Week 9. But Geno Smith isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback, and he’s regressed in recent years between his time in Seattle and Vegas. The offensive line is horrible and they’re nothing special defensively. I cover these bases because outside of Jeanty and Bowers, there are few players we can play with confidence on the Vegas side for our Raiders vs. Broncos DFS picks.

The Denver Broncos have been a roller coaster to witness at times this year and they’ve staged their share of fourth quarter comebacks amidst their six-game winning streak. It is so hard to get a read on what to expect from this squad. It’s been fun to watch but if you’ve invested in them for fantasy football, you’re frustrated with this team by halftime. And then by the end of the game, some of their players hit pay dirt. But they are big favorites as we preview another round of TNF DFS picks so let’s dig into the latest Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Playbook as we kick off Week 10!

 

 

 

Raiders vs. Broncos TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Raiders +9.5 (-110)
    • Broncos -9.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Raiders (+380)
    • Broncos (-500)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 42.5 (-118)
    • Under 42.5 (-102)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Raiders +8.5 (-105)
    • Broncos -8.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Raiders (+410)
    • Broncos (-550)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 42.5 (-112)
    • Under 42.5 (-108)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Raiders vs. Broncos TNF, November 6th

We kick off Week 10 with a game at elevation in November. But luckily the larger temperature drops across the country, more specifically in the Midwest, won’t come until Sunday or Monday. So for our TNF DFS picks, we’re getting decent weather in Denver. Winds should remain under 10 miles per hour and we’ll have clear skies with no additional elements. The temperature will start in the mid-to-high 50’s around kickoff and cool off slowly as the game progresses. 

 

Raiders vs. Broncos Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 10

The hometown Denver Broncos have been polite and courteous with their inactives for our TNF DFS picks. It’s no surprise that Pat Surtain has been ruled out. But Marvin Mims is out and depth tight end, Nate Adkins, will also miss this game. 

The visiting Las Vegas Raiders have declared Aidan O’Connell out for this game while defensive players Lonnie Johnson, Adam Butler, and Isaiah Pola-Mao are all listed as questionable.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos - DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $13,800

I got a kick out of Big Cat’s recent quote on Pardon My Take about Bo Nix being Tim Tebow… but just a little bit better. Nix has 20 total touchdowns this season and nine of them have come in the fourth quarter with some drama. Four of Denver’s last five wins have been by four or fewer points. And Nix is only completing 61.2% of his pass attempts so there may be a little truth to the “Tim Tebow but just a little bit better” argument.

From a fantasy football angle, Nix has been frustrating at times. Since Week 4 he has three games with 24+ fantasy points and that’s the ceiling we look for in a Captain. But on the season, he also has four games with less than 18 fantasy points. At least for our Raiders vs. Broncos DFS picks he comes in with 10 total touchdowns in his last three games.

The one concern I have with this matchup is that I prefer my Captain QB’s to have some juice to get the 300-yard passing bonus on DraftKings. Nix has only done it once this year and even in Denver’s electric fourth quarter comeback against the New York Giants where Nix attempted 50 passes, he couldn’t hit that mark. And the Raiders are so easy to run on that if the game gets out of hand, the opposing offense takes their foot off the gas. No quarterback has thrown for 300+ yards against the Raiders this year and that’s only because the Raiders haven’t been competitive, but that did change last week with the return of Brock Bowers.

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,000

Brock Bowers made his triumphant return in Week 9 to the tune of a dozen receptions on 13 targets for 127 yards and three touchdowns. He basically matched his entire production from Weeks 1-4 prior to getting injured. Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points argues that Bowers has basically only played eight healthy quarters of football and his four-quarter averages come out to 10.5 targets per game, 115 receiving yards per game, and 29.3 fantasy points per game. All those marks would make him a top three wide receiver, and yet he plays a position as scarce as tight end.

In his return in Week 9 he had a 34.2% target share and a 47.8% air yards share. It was refreshing to see him dominate much like he did in his rookie campaign.

It’s hard to really gauge how well the Broncos can defend the tight end position, however. Dalton Schultz just caught 6-of-8 targets for 77 yards last week. In Week 7, both Daniel Bellinger and Theo Johnson found the end zone with 65+ receiving yards each. I think we just go right back to the well with Bowers as he’s in a tier all his own and we have to approach him as matchup proof for fantasy football.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $9,800

Sutton has not quite hit his ceiling in too many games this season. To be fair, he tends to draw the more difficult matchups from opposing defenses. That may even leave most DFS players off Sutton. The output hasn’t been the greatest this season, but this matchup is perfect for Sutton to put up some numbers.

The Raiders play zone coverage on nearly 85% of their defensive snaps which does play to the strengths of Sutton’s vertical routes. And there’s really no strong defensive back on the Raiders that can shut down the opposing offense’s WR1. When these two teams met last November, Sutton caught 8-of-10 targets for 97 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,200

The matchup sucks. And honestly, most matchups suck because this Raiders offensive line is so bad. The Vegas O-line ranks 31st in yards before contact per carry (0.68), 20th in run block win rate (71%), and they’re dead last in stuffed run rate (28.6%). By comparison, the Broncos defense ranks 4th in yards before contact per attempt (0.84), 11th in stuffed run rate (19.5%), and 4th in rush success rate (35.7%).

All this is to say, if Jeanty is going to hit pay dirt, he’s doing it on his own. With the departure of Jakobi Meyers, there’s arguably less reason for Denver to respect the pass in this matchup. They already rank 11th in heavy box rate (43.3%) as it is. Jeanty is still a decent volume play and this is the kind of game script where he could catch five or more passes. I don’t have the confidence to put him in the section above, but the volume makes him a core play.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $10,600

Dobbins was a bit of a “Steady Eddie” to start the year as he was safely between 14-and-16 fantasy points in PPR formats in each of the first five weeks according to DraftKings scoring. He also scored in four-of-five of those games.

But he’s cooled off in three of his last four games, but he hasn’t scored in that span. The volume has remained the same, but this is a good spot for him to break out of the touchdown drought. The Raiders are respectable against the run but let’s not forget that Dobbins, while with the Los Angeles Chargers in 2024, torched the Raiders for 135 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries to kick off Week 1 last year. For this matchup, he doesn’t come in with momentum, but the volume remains the same. 

RJ Harvey has been the antithesis of J.K. Dobbins of late. He’s been rather overly efficient which screams for some regression. But at the end of the day I can’t argue against five touchdowns in his last three games (20 total touches), if you choose to chase that kind of production.

Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $7,800

The Troy Franklin phenomenon is one that needs to be studied. He has 32 targets in his last four games. That’s eight per game. Even over the last three games he has 28 targets. But in the four-game sample size, he’s somehow only racked up 154 total receiving yards on 32 targets. That’s just 38.5 yards per game despite all the volume. He had 10 targets in both Weeks 7 and 9. He caught seven total passes out of those 20 targets.

A lot of that could be Bo Nix’s inaccuracy. Per Fantasy Points nearly one-third of his expected fantasy points have been uncatchable since Week 7. But he’s drawing the softer coverages as defenses focus on Courtland Sutton, who we’ve already discussed. But since Week 7, Franklin has 676 air yards while Sutton is at 517. But that’s a bit volume based as well. Franklin may be the more popular play in this matchup just given the usage of late, but both are in great spots against a soft secondary.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $11,400

It’s not pretty but I came close to listing Geno Smith as a core flex option for the Week 10 TNF DFS picks. Smith does have 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions this season but the whole offense performed much better with the return of Brock Bowers in Week 9.

I can’t quite get past the turnovers, unfortunately. Smith ranks 26th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (-0.05), he’s 29th in turnover-worthy play rate (4.1%), and he’s 30th in average depth of target (6.5). But the Broncos secondary is also sans Pat Surtain. And they weren’t really tested last week since C.J. Stroud got hurt.

But the Broncos defense is not one to be trifled with. Their defensive coverage ranks 2nd in completion percentage over expected (-6.4%) and they’re 4th in defensive EPA/Pass (-0.08). The Broncos pass rush also ranks 5th in blitz rate (33.3%), 4th in pressure rate (36.7%), and 1st in sack rate (11.3%). So if you wanted to just focus on Bowers and/or Jeanty, I wouldn’t blame you.

Tre Tucker, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

Since his massive Week 3 performance where he caught 8-of-9 targets for 145 yards and three touchdowns, Tucker has cooled off significantly. He hasn’t scored in that game and he’s averaging just 3.8 receptions and 43.2 yards per game in that five-game span according to DraftKings.

With Jakobi Meyers out of the picture, he leaves behind an 18.6% target share, 14.7%(!) first-read target share, and an 88.3% route run rate. Colin McTamany of FTN Fantasy even acknowledged that Meyers runs over half his routes from the slot.

It remains to be seen how the Raiders approach these new opportunities. For starters, they have arguably no shot at the playoffs, so maybe they decide to get a look at younger receivers who we’ll get to later on. For now, it looks as if Tucker is in line to be the main beneficiary of the snaps, routes, and targets left behind by Jakobi Meyers. But keep an eye on Tyler Lockett for those coveted routes out of the slot.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Evan Engram, TE, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $5,600

Engram’s a bit frustrating at times but there’s a good floor here even if he did put up a goose egg last week against the Houston Texans. In five games from Weeks 4-8 he did record at least four receptions in every game. If he can provide a similar return for this game, he should be able to pay off the price tag. And if he can find the end zone then he’s probably hitting the optimal lineup for our Raiders vs. Broncos DFS picks.

If the DFS community is off him based on last week’s performance, then we can use that to our advantage. It won’t be a significant leverage spot, but Engram still runs plenty of routes and has four performances with six targets this season. With Marvin Mims unable to suit up then that should bode well for Engram and the next player in this article.

Pat Bryant, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $3,800

Bryant could emerge as a touchdown-or-bust kind of value play. In terms of snaps and routes he may not come anywhere close to Evan Engram. But he provides salary relief and he’ll likely carry less ownership across our NFL DFS Showdown contests.

With Mims out in Week 9, Bryant served as the team’s third wide receiver and played 36-of-63 offensive snaps. The increase in snaps didn’t correlate to production as he only had two receptions on three targets for 20 yards. However, while we likely won’t utilize him in season-long fantasy football there is still an argument to use him in GPP contests on DraftKings and FanDuel because we really just need one big play or a score for him to provide a return at this price tag. 

Michael Mayer, TE, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $4,600

On Tuesday, Sam Hoppen had this great visual that highlights the usage trends for all 32 NFL teams. And he points out that the Raiders have been leaning on more 12 personnel (two-tight end sets) in recent weeks. That trend will likely continue following the trade of Jakobi Meyers to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Last week’s volume may have been a bit dependent on the game script. However, Mayer did see seven targets. He didn’t do very much with them (three catches for 26 yards) but he played 83% of the snaps on Sunday and that was in a game where Jakobi Meyers also received six targets. The Raiders didn’t have a reliable third receiver for that game and now they arguably don’t have a second. Mayer becomes a very interesting value play following Tuesday’s trade.

Jack Bech, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $3,400

Dont’e Thornton, WR, Las Vegas Raiders – DraftKings: $1,200 | FanDuel: $3,000

This can be pretty tough to get a read on. And truthfully, if the Raiders don’t show up offensively, then everybody could be putting up a dud. But in the Tre Tucker section we mentioned that there are now opportunities available in this offense. Both Bech and Thornton are rookie receivers that just haven’t seen much action, but maybe with the trade of Jakobi Meyers, that can change.

Bech was the second-round selection out of TCU while Thornton was a day three selection in the same draft class. Bech didn’t play a nap in Week 9’s overtime loss while Thornton hasn’t caught a pass since Week 3, and he was inactive in Week 9.

So we are throwing a bit blind with this suggestion. But the Raiders had their Bye in Week 8, and were clearly sellers for the NFL Trade Deadline. It would be wise to get a better look at their younger receivers although it’s a tough matchup against the Denver Broncos.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

It’s hard to get excited about the Raiders D/ST in this matchup. They’ve given up 30+ points to half their opponents this year and they only have 16 sacks in eight games. Six of those sacks came against the lowly Tennessee Titans. For this particular matchup, I’m not terribly intrigued by Vegas especially because Denver has an implied team total of about 26 points.

The Broncos defense should intrigue us even if they’ll be without Pat Surtain for the second straight game. The Raiders come into this game on the road with an implied team total of 16.5 points. We touched on how bad the offensive line is in terms of run blocking in Ashton Jeanty’s section. But they also rank 20th in pressure rate allowed (31.7%) and the Broncos pass rush ranks top five in blitz rate (33.3%), pressure rate (36.7%), and sack rate (11.3%). For those of you at home curious how a team’s pressure rate can be higher than their blitz rate, well there’s also a stat called non-blitz pressure rate, and the Broncos are 3rd in that category as well (37.7%).

I’m not overly excited about Daniel Carlson as a Flex play for Vegas. The Raiders find themselves in plenty of game scripts where they don’t bother with field goal attempts. Carlson has attempted just nine total field goals in his last six games and he’s only made one field goal from 40+ yards out. Now the opposing argument to that is the Broncos defense is so good in the red zone, that it brings kickers into play. Just last week, Ka’imi Fairbairn made five field goals, three of which came from 40+ yards out. So if the Broncos play to the level of their opponent, then Carlson could be in play. But if it’s a blowout and the Raiders struggle to reach their implied team total then we should lay off.

Wil Lutz doesn’t carry an injury designation for this game after registering a full practice session on Wednesday. The downside is that he just hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling this year. He’s yet to attempt three field goals in a game. And the offenses inconsistencies have hurt his production and he hasn’t returned double-digit fantasy points yet in a game. Tread carefully with both kickers. There are a handful of cheaper plays that may have a higher ceiling than Carlson and Lutz.

 

 

 

Raiders vs. Broncos DFS Player Pool: TNF, 11/6

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