We kick off Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season with a matchup straight out of the NFC North as the Green Bay Packers head to Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions. The good news is that both teams just played on Thanksgiving. So this isn’t one of those weird scenarios where both teams play on a short week. They’ve both had a week off and time to rest. So we’re optimistic for a competitive game as both teams have significant playoff aspirations. Here are the latest Packers vs. Lions DFS picks as we get into Week 14!

 

 

 

Packers vs. Lions DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 12/5

Thursday Night Football delivers a matchup from the NFC North between two organizations with high playoff hopes. These two teams have a combined record of 20-4 on the season and the Packers sit two games behind the Lions for the division lead. A win would still put them in contention to win the division and the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) are likely also pulling for the Packers.

The Packers enter this game on a three-game winning streak, and they’ve won seven of their last eight games? The lone loss? Well it was to these same Detroit Lions in Green Bay back in Week 9. Green Bay is averaging the third-most points the last three weeks at 29.3 points per game and the offense has been very effective with Josh Jacobs scoring in bunches the last few weeks.

But the NFC arguably runs through the Detroit Lions. Detroit has lost one game all season and it came way back in Week 2 against Tampa Bay. But the Lions have four games this year where they’ve scored more than 40 points and stopping this offense is no easy task. While the Packers rank top five in points per game the last three weeks, the Lions are second in that sample size with 33. 

So fortunately for us NFL fans, both teams have had a week off and the NFL delivers a meaningful football game that could eventually become a playoff matchup. Let’s take a look at our top Packers vs. Lions DFS picks as we get into the final week of the fantasy football regular season!

 

 

 

Packers vs. Lions TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -3 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Packers (+142)
    • Lions (-170)
  • Game Total: Over 51.5 (-108) / Under 51.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -3.5 (-104)
  • Money Line:
    • Packers (+142)
    • Lions (-168)
  • Game Total: Over 51.5 (-110) / Under 51.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Packers vs. Lions TNF, December 5th

This game will be played indoors at Ford Field in a controlled environment.

 

Packers vs. Lions Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 14

The Packers are looking pretty good heading into this matchup. There were only two players who didn’t practice on Tuesday: linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and cornerback Corey Ballentine. Both Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs practiced in a limited capacity but that signals they at least have a decent shot at playing Thursday night. Doubs will need to clear concussion protocol for this game.

Update: Both Jaire Alexander and Romeo Doubs will be out for Thursday's game.

The Lions injury report isn’t as full but it’s still worth noting that offensive tackle Taylor Decker didn’t practice on Tuesday. On the defensive side D.J. Reader, Joshua Paschal, and Levi Onwuzurike did not practice.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $14,500

St. Brown recently had a streak of eight straight games with a touchdown broken as he’s failed to find the end zone in his last two games. Per Fantasy Points Data he has a 26.1% target share with 2.52 yards per route run (YPRR), a 31.4% first-read target share and he touts a 0.151 first down per route run rate. Needless to say, the offense relies on him heavily to move the ball. He’s also top five in separation over the last month according to FPD.

We aren’t too far removed from his game against Green Bay in Week 9 where he caught all seven targets for 56 yards and a score. The touchdown equity is nice for ARSB, but if there’s one knock on him, you just wish he would get the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings more. But overall, he’s a strong play due to his first-read target share and the Lions move him all over the field so hopefully that’s enough to avoid any shadow coverages.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

Jacobs is nursing a mild calf injury, but all signs point to him playing Thursday night. He’s been on fire of late. Per DraftKings scoring, in five of his last six games he’s popped for 20+ fantasy points. The one game he didn’t was against these very Detroit Lions though.

We still get great volume from Jacobs regardless. In that six-game sample size he has seven touchdowns. But of course, against the Lions he was kept out of the end zone, although he was five rushing yards away from the 100-yard bonus. If you’re getting the sense that I’m painting the picture of a tough matchup for Jacobs, you would be correct. But we can’t just lay off a stud running back who sees immense volume because of the matchup. He gets high value touches and involvement in the passing game. Over their last four games the Lions are allowing just 67.75 rushing yards per game.

But in almost any game script, Jacobs is in line for a strong workload and we don’t have the uncertainty of him splitting carries with another running back in this backfield. And we love that when the Packers get inside the 10-yard line they’re opting to run the ball as opposed to throwing it. Per Jacobs Gibbs of CBS Sports, despite playing in just three games over the last month, he leads the league in rush attempts and touchdowns scored from inside the 10. Green Bay has thrown on just 5-of-19 plays from inside the 10. So Jacobs is getting the high-value touches in heavy doses.

David Montgomery, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

Normally when I’ve done NFL DFS Showdown Playbooks featuring the Lions, I take the time to write up Jahmyr Gibbs and Monty together. I’m taking a slightly different approach this week. I anticipate Montgomery being far more popular on FanDuel because Gibbs is the most expensive player. But there’s only a $400 difference on DraftKings.

Montgomery went down with a shoulder injury in Week 12 but in Week 13, on a short week, the team gave him 24 touches (including three receptions). The frustrating part for Gibbs and Montgomery is that neither found the end zone on Thanksgiving.

By all means you can play either at Captain. I’m partial to Montgomery because I am wondering if maybe Jahmyr Gibbs is in the doghouse a bit. Gibbs may have accidentally “leaked” the Lions signal calls in a social media post over the last handful of days. Both teams have downplayed it a bit, but either way both running backs get volume. If Gibbs’ ownership is coming in slightly under Monty’s then we can consider pivoting. But both are great plays with upside behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $10,000

I’ll plant my flag with Christian Watson for our latest TNF DFS picks. The Packers will have their full complement of receivers so it’s going to be everybody’s best guess when trying to nail down who to plug in at Captain. I clearly prefer Watson.

Watson’s targets are frustrating. The volume is low and inconsistent. From Week 9-13 his first-read target share was under 20%. However, we know the Packers aren’t afraid to take some deep shots with him. In that sample size between Weeks 9-13, he actually holds an air yards share over 40%. Even a few weeks ago against the Bears he only had four targets, but he caught them all for 150 yards. So given the big play upside with Watson I do think that warrants some exposure at Captain especially since nobody really plays any Green Bay pass catchers at Captain with any confidence.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $15,000

We’ve already touched on why David Montgomery is a great play. For a lot of the same reasons, Jahmyr Gibbs is also in play and yes, you can absolutely play him at MVP/Captain.

The duo of “Sonic and Knuckles” is a formidable force in the NFL. Both players offer a great floor and ceiling every week. General perception is that Gibbs may have a higher ceiling than Montgomery because he averages 6.0 yards per carry and 80+ yards per game compared to Montgomery who averages just 4.3 YPC and 60 yards per game. Both have double-digit touchdowns so if you chose to play them together and left out Jared Goff, you wouldn’t hear much of an argument from me.

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,500

If we’re projecting the Packers to be trailing and playing from behind, then we have to like passing volume from Love. In positive game scripts, like the last two weeks where the Packers won easily, Love attempted just 28 and 23 passes. And Love is only averaging about 30.8 pass attempts per game. However, when these two teams met back in Week 9, Love attempted 39 passes.

If we look at Love’s past four games, he’s had to play outside in colder conditions (three games in Green Bay and one in Chicago). But this game is at least in a controlled environment. Last year when these two teams met in Detroit he threw for 268 yards, three touchdowns, and he ran for 39 more yards. So the production of late hasn’t been great. But I’m a bit bullish on him heading into this matchup with a full week off and he gets to play indoors giving the Packers an implied team total over 24 points.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $13,000

Of course we’re going to include the quarterback that runs the best offense in the league. Surprisingly, I don’t necessarily view Goff as a “core” play, but he has a good floor. Goff has just three games all year with at least 20 fantasy points on DraftKings. And he smashed in those games with performances of 37.58, 28.10, and 27.18 points. In every other game this year he’s posted under 20 fantasy points. In fact, against the Packers in Week 9 he had just 9.60 fantasy points.

With the Lions operating so well on the ground, Goff doesn’t always need to throw it a ton. If you want to chase a higher ceiling, you can probably compose lineups using both running backs from Detroit. He’s a good game manager with just five interceptions since Week 4 (and they all came in one game against the Houston Texans).

There’s potential for a big game but there’s also the chance that Goff maybe gets you 14-16 points which can still be good for Cash games (if you play them on Showdown slates). I might be underweight in this spot but he correlates well with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta at Captain/MVP.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

This price is very soft on both sites. For a player with his upside, it just seems a bit light. I thought he’d be a little more expensive and was going to label him as one of those “Play him at Captain/MVP or don’t play him at all.” Alas, just play him wherever you want!

Williams is perfect for Showdown slates because he has a low floor and high ceiling. So you at least know what you’re getting into! He’s had four catches this year already go for 50+ yards and he has seven targets in back-to-back games coming into this matchup. He missed the previous matchup between these two in week 9 due to a suspension, but you probably feel better taking a swing on his upside compared to some of the receivers on Green Bay.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $8,000

It may surprise people that I skipped over Jayden Reed. I’ll have him in some lineups, and he’ll make the player pool below. But you have to make some stands on Showdown slates. Christian Watson has dominated the air yardage share of late. But Doubs still sees targets and may come in at less ownership than Watson and Reed, especially after Reed went for 113 yards against the Lions in Week 9.

But as pointed out by Dataroma, over the last three games Reed is averaging just 24.5 yards per game with 11 targets in that span. This may also surprise some people, but Reed also has just one game all year with more than six targets. The Lions run a ton of man coverage where Reed usually sees an efficiency drop.

Assuming the Lions want to avoid a repeat performance of Reed beating their secondary, I do like Doubs who should come in with less exposure. Doubs hasn’t yet cleared concussion protocol but he did practice in a limited fashion on Tuesday after missing last week’s game against Miami on Thanksgiving. Doubs also hasn’t found the end zone since Week 6 so he has that narrative going for him and when he does get going, Jordan Love has a tendency to feed him at a high rate as he has three games already with more than six targets.

Update: With Doubs being ruled out, we can upgrade Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $7,500

I’m a bit bias because I can’t move past the upside with Wicks. But I will acknowledge that if Romeo Doubs does suit up and play Thursday night then I have very little interest in Wicks aside from a few lineups. Operating as the fourth wide receiver in this offense isn’t necessarily a good thing and he has a tendency to drop passes.

But Wicks is also likely in the optimal lineup if he finds the end zone at this price. But if Doubs is active then we likely try to focus in on Doubs and Watson as our preferred receivers from Green Bay as Jayden Reed struggles against man coverage.

Tim Patrick, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $9,500

Patrick might be my favorite value play under $5,000 on DraftKings. He does operate as the team’s WR3 and doesn’t see regular snaps like ARSB or Jameson Williams. But for a cheap punt he’s seen 11 targets in his last three games. Now it’s been almost three years since he’s scored a touchdown (he missed 2022 and 2023 due to injury). To say that he’s due is a drastic understatement, but with so much attention going to the other pass catchers in this offense I think we see two or three nice catch-and-run plays from Patrick which could be enough to pay off his price tag.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

An implied total over 50 points may turn some people off to the D/ST’s and normally they’d be correct in doing so. But both teams have had a full week off so maybe that drives down ownership of the D/ST’s.

The Detroit Lions had 19 takeaways in their first 10 games this year, but over the last two weeks they have zero. Fortunately, they still get pressure on the quarterback and Jordan Love is prone to turnovers. The concern with playing the Lions against Love is that his passing volume is down the last handful of weeks, and he only has two games all year with more than 35 pass attempts. That could change if they’re playing from behind in a negative game script.

Similarly, the Packers have potential but anytime we’ve previewed the Lions for Showdown slates we err on the side of caution. And even for this game, the Lions have an implied team total north of 27 points. In seven of 12 games this year, the Packers have forced double-digit turnovers, but they do allow 21.4 points per game on the road compared to 17.3 at home. And again, it’s the Lions in a controlled environment so proceed with caution and only use the Packers in lineups that follow a specific narrative where they dominate this matchup and limit Detroit.

Jake Bates will correlate well with any Lions player at Captain. The Lions average about four red zone trips per game and even if they aren’t in the red zone, they still move the ball very well. Bates has missed just one field goal all season and we all know he gets plenty of extra point attempts. Kickers also go under-owned on most Showdown slates, but Bates is a great flex play and I may even throw a lineup together with him at MVP/Captain.

Brandon McManus has only been with the Packers for four games, but he’s been a solution to a previous problem they were having. In three of his last five games, he’s been able to get at least three field goal attempts and went for double-digit fantasy points in two of them. Against the Lions in Week 9, he went 2-for-3 so shame on him. But the Packers, despite being the underdog, still have an implied team total just over 24 points so he’s worth playing in this game as long as Green Bay can keep pace with Detroit.

 

 

 

Packers vs. Lions DFS Player Pool: TNF, 12/5

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