We close out Week 12 with a matchup straight from the NFC as the Carolina Panthers head to to Santa Clara for a date with the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football. Many football fans may have scoffed at this matchup after the Panthers started the season 1-3. But the Panthers are sitting at 6-5 and are currently 9th in the NFC playoff standings while the 49ers are holding on to the 7-seed. This game may not be a playoff preview matchup. However, it’s a pivotal game that will have an impact on the standings. Let’s take a look at the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook as we get ready to turn the page and focus on a great Thanksgiving Day slate!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Panthers vs. 49ers Game Preview

The latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook previews the Carolina Panthers taking on the San Francisco 49ers. It’s a really interesting matchup when you consider the large improvements the Panthers have made in the second year of the Dave Canales era. Unfortunately, the matchup isn’t easy as the San Francisco 49ers are getting healthy just ahead of the playoffs and while the sportsbooks are giving this game an implied total of 49.5 points, the Panthers are about 7.5-point underdogs.

Bryce Young isn’t consistently lighting up the stat sheet but last week’s 400-yard performance has to give him some confidence as the Panthers make their playoff push. Rookie wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, has lived up to the billing of a first-round draft pick, and the team even struck gold with the emergence of Rico Dowdle, who has had some monstrous games this season.

The Panthers have been a great story, there’s no doubt about it. For the 49ers, the narrative all year has been injuries. In some form or fashion, the team has been without the likes of Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings at times. And that’s only covering the offensive injuries. The defense has lost Nick Bosa, Mykel Williams, and Fred Warner. Surprisingly, Christian McCaffrey has looked as good as he ever has after battling injuries the last couple years. More recently, the injury bug seems to have bit their special teams as they’ll be without their place kicker, Eddy Pineiro, for our MNF DFS picks.

It did appear as if San Francisco’s window to win a Super Bowl had closed but they’re still showing some life as they get healthy on the offensive side. Hopefully this matchup lives up to the billing more than the NFC matchup we got on Sunday Night Football between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams. Let’s take a look at the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook as we close the door on Week 12!

 

 

 

Panthers vs. 49ers Notable Injuries & Inactives

The visiting Carolina Panthers have already ruled out linebackers Christian Rozeboom and Trevin Wallace while interior offensive lineman, Cade Mays, has also been ruled out. No other player carries an injury designation for this matchup so we can probably expect a few more healthy inactives 90 minutes prior to kickoff.

The San Francisco 49ers have battled injuries all season long. For Monday’s game they’ll be without Eddy Pineiro and Tatum Bethune while Robert Beal Jr. is doubtful and Luke Gifford is questionable. But the 49ers have been getting healthy at the right time and the offense will have a healthy allotment of players.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 11/24

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $12,400 | FanDuel: $13,600

McCaffrey is easily the most expensive player on both sites and I don’t need to dive too deep into advanced analytics or anything like that. There’s just a good floor/ceiling combination with this play. Per DraftKings scoring he’s averaging 26.4 fantasy points per game.

He’s returned fewer than 15 fantasy points just once all year and he just seems like a lock to touch the ball 20 times any given week. Even if he isn’t getting the 100-yard bonuses on a regular basis, his involvement in the passing game (74 receptions in 11 games) and touchdown equity (11 in as many games) will always put him in play as a Captain recommendation for any NFL DFS Monday Night Football Showdown Playbook.

This is also McCaffrey’s first game against the Carolina Panthers since his former team traded him early during the 2022 season. CMC doesn’t necessarily need the revenge game narrative because he clearly won the breakup. But it also doesn’t hurt if he’s a bit more motivated for this matchup.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $11,800

We transition from a former Panthers running back to a current Panthers running back. It is a bit of a shame that Chuba Hubbard has seemingly been pushed aside by Carolina after getting a nice contract extension, but Dowdle’s clearly been the best option in this backfield. Dowdle’s floor is decent. Even the last two weeks when the efficiency hasn’t been very good (2.65 YPC), he’s still returned 15 fantasy points in each game because of the involvement in the passing game and touchdown equity.

Since Week 5, he does have three games with 30+ fantasy points per DraftKings scoring. He has five touchdowns since that Week 5 breakout game and he has 72 total touches in his last three games. The floor probably isn’t as good as McCaffrey’s but the ceiling is similar and he may come into this matchup with half the exposure at Captain compared to CMC.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,600

Tet McMillan gets an outstanding matchup coming off arguably the best game of his career. McMillan popped for eight receptions for 130 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. That performance catapulted him into the top 15 wide receivers in target share and first-read target share. He’s also top 10 in receiving yards, percentage of team receiving yards, first downs per route run, and fantasy points. The kid is elite and the breakout performance was long overdue.

The matchup Monday is looking perfect for a follow up performance. The 49ers secondary just allowed Michael Wilson to pop for a massive game. San Francisco now grades out as arguably an elite matchup for opposing receivers. The 49ers enter Week 12 ranking top five in receptions, yards, fantasy points, and catch rate allowed to opposing wide receivers so we’re ready to fire up Tet once again. 

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $9,800

The 49ers had basically every weapon available to themselves in Week 11 and the usual suspects came through. Most notably, Kittle’s workload didn’t really take a hit with the return of Ricky Pearsall. Kittle caught all six of his targets for 67 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Since Week 8, he’s caught all but one target and he’s scored four times as well.

The 49ers have been operating with a lot of 21 personnel packages (two running backs, one tight end, and two wide receivers) since Kittle came back. Last week this package was used on over half their offensive plays. Kittle had a nice 30% first-read target share last week and that can hopefully continue going forward especially since Kittle has the fourth-easiest playoff schedule for tight ends.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers - DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,400

Purdy has obviously missed some time, but he returned last week and threw for 200 yards and three touchdowns. Kyle Shanahan makes things very easy for his franchise quarterback and he has some of the best weapons at his disposal compared to the other 31 teams in the NFL.

In two-of-three games this year he’s actually completed over 70% of his pass attempts and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in all three games he was healthy. Among qualified starting quarterbacks he’s 4th in EPA/Play (0.24), 1st in success rate (57.4%), and 6th in completion percentage over expected (4.3%) according to Sam Hoppen. Now obviously we take some of his numbers with a grain of salt because he has missed significant time this year.

Either way, the play calling is catered to his strengths and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal where he can chip away and return 18-22 fantasy points. But there are clearly players with higher ceilings available to us on this slate that profile as better Captain recommendations.

Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $11,400

Bryce Young had the best game of his career in Week 11 where he torched the Atlanta Falcons to the tune of 448 yards and three touchdowns while attempting 45 pass attempts. Do I think he can do something like that in consecutive weeks? No I do not.

It’s not that I’m a Bryce Young hater, I have nothing against the kid. However, from Weeks 3-10 he was averaging 25.6 pass attempts per game and then last week he exploded for 45. And he’s only thrown for over 200 passing yards just twice this season. He ranks 26th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Play (-0.06) and he’s 28th in average depth of target (6.5) per Sam Hoppen.

I do like the potential for some of his pass catchers and Young is a great correlation piece because opposing quarterbacks have racked up production against San Francisco all year. But similar to Purdy, there are skill position players who I feel better about at Captain for this slate. Young is still fine in the flex.

Jauan Jennings, WR, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,800

It’s puzzling to me that Ricky Pearsall is more expensive than Jennings. I wasn’t overly inspired by Pearsall’s usage last week, but it was his first game back. I did, however, thoroughly enjoy Jennings’ usage alongside Kittle so I am giving him slight preference for our Panthers vs. 49ers DFS picks.

Both Jennings and Kittle were able to command target shares north of 19% while Pearsall wasn’t very involved. Jennings may be a bit touchdown dependent, but I am comfortable utilizing him as a flex option as he’s averaging nearly seven targets per game over his last five contests.

Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,400

I actually do prefer another Panthers wide receiver, who we’ll get to next. But I did want to mention Legette because there’s variance here. And we try to lean into variance for NFL DFS Showdown slates.

Legette was excellent last week with four receptions on eight targets for 83 yards and a score. But this is also the same player who tallied just three receptions for 39 yards from Weeks 8-10. Again, we lean into the variance on Showdown slates.

The Panthers also have a pulse and a shot to make the playoffs in the NFC. It does feel like that’s a tall order because both playoff pictures are absolutely loaded with great teams this year. But if this can be a competitive game then I don’t want to overlook affordable players on Carolina. Legette didn’t run as many routes in Week 11 as the next receiver we’re about to preview but Legette may go overlooked since he’s priced around Pearsall and Jennings.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Jalen Coker, WR, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $6,400

I still think a good portion of the field may try to get to Chuba Hubbard in this spot even though he’s clearly not the lead running back on this team anymore. Instead, we should be looking at Jalen Coker. Coker hasn’t really made significant noise since making his season debut in Week 7. But perhaps the big game is due Monday night.

Coker lines up in the slot on about 61% of his snaps. There’s perhaps no better matchup on paper for slot receivers than the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are allowing the most fantasy points per game (18.1) to opposing slot receivers. He even managed to get more snaps than Xavier Legette last week so it’s possible he takes on an even bigger role in the best matchup available to slot receivers.

Brian Robinson, RB, San Francisco 49ers – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $5,400

He’s an awfully tough player to trust just knowing how much CMC will touch the ball. However, we noted earlier in the article how the 49ers are getting a lot of usage out of 21 personnel and that means B-Rob is seeing the field more. He’s seen eight carries in consecutive games and he found the end zone in Weeks 9 and 10. It’s not much to work with but we have an affordable value option that is getting touches. I prefer trying to get to Coker in a great matchup but if you can’t afford him then we can settle for Robinson.

Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Carolina Panthers – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $5,000

Sanders didn’t get as many snaps as Tommy Tremble did in Week 11, but Sanders does get more targets and certainly has the better ceiling for fantasy football. He’s caught all nine targets over the last two weeks, but the production is limited. Like most tight ends, he’s a bit dependent on touchdowns. He hasn’t scored yet this year but he does have nine red zone targets on the season so Bryce Young is at least looking his way when the Panthers are threatening to score.

 

 

 

Panthers vs. 49ers DFS Player Pool, 11/24

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