We close out the NFL season with a Super Bowl rematch from just two years ago as the Kansas City Chiefs chase history and go for three straight Super Bowl titles against the Philadelphia Eagles. 

It’s the Big Game for a very good reason as there are plenty of narratives in play, superstar players, Kendrick Lamar at halftime, and above all else we truly have the best two teams set for a rematch this Sunday. There’s plenty to unpack so let’s take a look at our NFL DFS Super Bowl picks for Sunday’s Big Game!

 

 

 

NFL Super Bowl DFS Picks & Preview For DraftKings & FanDuel: Sunday, 2/9

Super Bowl 59 delivers a rematch of Super Bowl 57 which saw the Chiefs get the best of the Eagles 38-35. But the outlook is obviously different for both teams on offense and defense. Saquon Barkley earned Offensive Player of the Year honors for his ridiculous season with the Philadelphia Eagles. But even on defense we can’t ignore the additions of rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.

But the Chiefs also continue to nail their respective draft picks as 31 other teams made the mistake of allowing Xavier Worthy to slip to the Chiefs late in the first round of last year’s draft. But this team also struggled to put up 30 points in a game all year, but when they needed it most, they delivered in the AFC Championship game by dropping 32 points on the Buffalo Bills. 

This team has gotten healthy at the right time and despite some close calls all season long, they’ve made it back to the Super Bowl for the fifth time in the last six years.

The Eagles didn’t have an easy path with a Bye week in the playoffs, but they absolutely flattened the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship game. Since returning from their Bye week early in the year, they’re top five in EPA/Play and EPA/Rush according to Fantasy Points Data. On defense they’re best in the league in EPA/Rush and EPA/DB.

The combination of Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts has proven deadly for their opponents and the new additions on defense have made them largely unstoppable. The Chiefs are the slight favorites for this game, but they’ll have their hands full with this team Sunday night in New Orleans.

 

 

 

NFL Weather: NFL Super Bowl DFS Impact

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we don’t have any weather concerns for our NFL DFS Super Bowl picks. However, there are the great temptations bestowed upon the teams and players to avoid the traditional festivities of Bourbon Street and all the fun that comes with New Orleans.

The Oakland Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles met in New Orleans for Super Bowl XV 44 years ago. According to Jon Gruden on Wednesday’s edition of “Barstool Live,” Ron Jaworski has stories about how Dick Vermeil ran a tight ship with Philadelphia. 

Players had a strict curfew and weren’t allowed to go out after a certain hour. Wives and families were kept out of the team’s hotel in the final days leading up to the game.

By comparison, the Oakland Raiders were the looser team. They had fun all week. The team partied a little, experienced the nightlife, and weren’t denied access to their families. And wouldn’t you know it, the Raiders won that game 27-10 and Ron Jaworski was intercepted three times. There’s a fine line teams have to walk between not enough fun and too much of it.

 

 

 

NFL Injuries: What To Know For Super Bowl 59 DFS

Fortunately, there aren’t too many noteworthy injuries on either side for this game. On Thursday’s injury report, the Chiefs only listed four players, but Skyy Moore has been the only option limited in practice/walk throughs. 

Patrick Mahomes has been listed as a full participant despite popping up on the report with an ankle injury. Even Jawaan Taylor appeared on the report with a knee injury. If you’re an Eagles fan, you definitely want Jawaan “False Start” Taylor healthy and active for this game.

On the other side of the ball, the Eagles did list more players on their injury report but there are no significant injuries we’re monitoring. Kenneth Gainwell has been dealing with a concussion and a knee issue, but he was a full participant on Thursday’s report. DeVonta Smith has been limited with a hamstring injury, but he is expected to play come Sunday.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Super Bowl Picks: Core Plays

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $16,500

He’s the most expensive player on both sites and for good reason. Between the Divisional Round and the NFC Championship game two weeks ago, he scored five total touchdowns, and he’s rushed for over 115 yards in five straight games. From a fantasy perspective for our NFL DFS Super Bowl Picks, Barkley has EIGHT(!) games this year with 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings. And that’s not including the 29.7 points he put up on the New York Giants back in Week 7.

According to Ben Fawkes, Barkley’s anytime touchdown prop (-190) is getting twice as many wagers at Caesars Sportsbook as any other player. After scoring 20 total touchdowns between the regular season and the playoffs, you can certainly see why.

The Chiefs are no pushover defensively but over their two playoff games they allowed a total of 296 rushing yards to the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills. Given the threat of the Eagles run game and the dynamic duo of Barkley alongside Jalen Hurts, it’s feasible the Eagles rack up the yardage in this matchup. Barkley should see plenty of volume and be a focal point of the offense for Sunday night’s big game.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $13,500

It’s easy to consider Hurts a Core Play for our NFL DFS Super Bowl Picks when he’s the beneficiary of the tush push. Hurts scored three rushing touchdowns in Philadelphia’s NFC Championship win over the Washington Commanders two weeks ago. He added a nine-yard rushing score and a touchdown pass for 33.44 fantasy points per DraftKings scoring.

The important thing we saw is that, despite the lack of correlation between Barkley and Hurts, you can still play both together and aim for heavy rushing volume and touchdown equity.

Perhaps a rather underrated aspect of his game, especially of late, has been the lack of turnovers. He did lose five fumbles this season but three of them came in the team’s first four games. But he’s also thrown 206 consecutive passes without an interception. If he can keep that streak going in this game and avoid giving the ball to Kansas City or their offense to convert, then Hurts and Co. should be in for a big day.

We can’t really rely on Hurts too much to get the 300-yard passing bonus as he’s only done it once this year. But the rush attempts are on his side, and you love the floor he provides, especially if the Eagles get the ball on Kansas City’s one-yard line.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $14,000

Mahomes is chasing history once again. With each year that passes with the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, the “GOAT” argument becomes stronger and stronger. And I’m acknowledging this as a New England Patriots/Tom Brady fan. Mahomes is electric and while we didn’t see the usual stat padding from him in the regular season, he showed what he can do in the AFC Championship when a big game is needed.

He’s only attempted 51 pass attempts in two playoff games this year, but he collected a pair of touchdowns with his legs against the Buffalo Bills and threw for another. All in all, he was able to put up over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings because of the rushing touchdowns.

But Mahomes has stepped up his game in the playoffs. Per Dataroma, Mahomes averaged 6.76 yards per attempt (YPA), 6.02 air net yards per attempt (ANY/A) and had a 75.4% catchable throw rate. In his two playoffs games he’s averaging 8.27 YPA, 7.77 ANY/A, and an 84.3% catchable throw rate.

The Eagles defense is tough, and I do have concerns Mahomes offers more of a “floor” game because we have to be objective, 13.1 of his fantasy points came on the two rushing touchdowns. But to that paint, he’s totaled 18 rush attempts in two playoff games after averaging just 3.6 per game during the regular season.

And when he plays indoors, there are few better than Mahomes. He’s 11-0 (including the playoffs) playing inside with 26 career touchdowns, three interceptions, 309 yards per game, and an 84 total QBR. We include him in the Core Players for our NFL DFS Super Bowl Picks because he’s one of the best to ever do it and can certainly have a big game as he chases his fourth Super Bowl ring.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Super Bowl Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $12,500

There’s some good and bad with this matchup for Brown. For the NFL DFS Super Bowl picks, he has to make the player pool. He’s a bully on the field and a big target for Jalen Hurts, despite rumors and rumblings that there’s some disconnect in their on-field chemistry nowadays.

Brown still has the ability to pop for big plays and found the end zone in the NFC Championship game. But is he a core play in the truest sense? I don’t necessarily believe so.

As we touched on earlier, the Eagles haven’t thrown it much in the postseason. You don’t really need to when your star running back, and quarterback are so effective at running the ball. Brown is averaging just six targets per game in the playoffs.

Moreover, it’s a bit of a tough matchup for all of Philadelphia’s pass catchers. The Chiefs utilize a lot of 2-High coverage shells where Brown is seeing just 20% TPRR (down from 28% against all coverages) and 2.04 YPRR (down from 2.93).

I am somewhat confident that Brown could be a bit of a leverage play with everyone zoning in on the Eagles run game. And rightfully so. But if you’re building 20+ lineups you have to consider Brown at MVP/Captain in case he can find the end zone twice and make some big plays.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

It’s an incredibly difficult matchup for one of the greatest tight ends to ever play the game. And perhaps this is maybe his last game ever? Since the Eagles bye week very early in the season, they’re allowing just 6.00 YPA to the tight end position which is lowest in the league. Across the middle, and in short yardage spots, the Eagles are great at stopping slot receivers and in-line tight ends.

Kelce isn’t exactly a spring chicken either. He is older and slower, and he sees an efficiency drop when facing man coverage (1.46 YPRR since Week 9).

Now we should at least lean into the fact it’s the Super Bowl. Kelce put up a dud against the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago, but he steps up for the big games. Two years ago, he caught all six targets for 81 yards and a score. Last year he caught nine of 10 targets for 93 yards against the San Francisco 49ers. 

When the Chiefs lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31-9 four years ago, Kelce caught 10-of-15 targets for 133 yards. And in Kansas City’s first Super Bowl win for this dynasty, Kelce caught all six targets for 43 yards and a score. Tough matchup? Sure. But it’s hard to write him off or fade him in such a big game.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $11,500

I almost prefer betting on Worthy’s props and taking the under on his receiving yardage total. Or taking him as the first touchdown scorer if you can still find that at +1100. But overall, I am rather bearish on Worthy for our NFL DFS Super Bowl picks.

If the Eagles utilize man coverage that helps Worthy as he sees a positive efficiency bump. However, if the Birds go with some single-high coverage shells, that’s not great for Worthy considering he touts just a 7.4 aDOT and the Eagles defend short yardage passes incredibly well.

Worthy does have three games since Week 16 where he popped for over 20 fantasy points on DraftKings, but he didn’t register the 100-yard bonus at all this season. He is still on the field plenty for Kansas City and at $8,000 that’s a nice commodity. But I do think the next player in this article has a better outlook.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

Like his teammate, Smith does see an efficiency dip against 2-High coverage shells. However, it’s not as stark as A.J. Brown. But the good news is that Smith will likely run most of his routes from the slot, as he’s done all season long. And the Chiefs have had their struggles against slot receivers all year.

Against slot receivers, the Chiefs allow 8.75 YPA (24th in the NFL), 8.8% completion percentage over expected (27th), and 83.2% catchable throw rate (25th). Since Week 10, the Chiefs are also allowing over 100 receiving yards per game to opposing slot receivers. So, if you’re looking for potentially a contrarian MVP/Captain pick, Smith is one of my favorite plays on the slate.

But by all means, Dallas Goedert has provided a nice floor of late and the Eagles passing game is rather consolidated. If you need more savings, then you can certainly give him consideration as well.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $10,500

The Chiefs will likely continue to ride the hot hand of Kareem Hunt over Isiah Pacheco for Sunday’s big game. The price tag isn’t too bad, especially for a player who has scored in four straight games dating back to the regular season.

Hunt isn’t a huge candidate to get the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings, but it does feel like 12+ touches is within reason and at this price tag, you can ride that and hope he finds the end zone once or twice.

A lot of matchups are brutal across the board and that is also true for Hunt. Since Week 6, the Eagles are allowing just 4.1 yards per carry, and they lead the league in EPA/Rush against opposing running backs.

Hollywood Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $9,500

It’s anyone’s guess how the passing game will unfold for both teams. But Dataroma did an interesting deep dive on the Eagles secondary earlier this week. You can view the whole tweet right here, but I’ll sum up the notes on Brown.

Since returning in Week 16, Brown leads the team in targets over 10 yards down the field at 2.8 per game. Kelce has seen about two per game while Xavier Worthy is right around 1.3 because his targets are coming more in short yardage spots.

The reason this is significant is because the Eagles are more susceptible to giving up big plays deep, while they defend pass plays closer to the line of scrimmage very well. And that does make sense, but on passes nine yards or fewer downfield the Eagles allow the fourth-best catchable throw rate. 

When passes are deeper downfield (10+ yards) they’re allowing just the 15th best catchable throw rate. So again, credit to Dataroma for unearthing that nugget and even if it doesn’t sound incredibly significant, we’re looking for a slight edge anywhere on this slate so we can construct the optimal lineup.

Downfield is historically where Hollywood Brown has made his money. And the Chiefs recognize this and have utilized him in the same way since he returned toward the end of the regular season. The downside is that he hasn’t eclipsed 50 receiving yards in the small sample size we’ve seen. But you have to take some risks and stands on Showdown slates. If he does take a deep target to the house, at his price tag he’s probably in the optimal lineup.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Super Bowl Picks: Value Plays

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

If anyone is throwing darts at Will Shipley, then so be it. But Shipley’s production two weeks ago came when the game was very well in hand, and he didn’t see the field until very late. In more competitive games, we see Shipley stay on the sideline and put up zero fantasy points.

So, if we need value on the Philadelphia side you can go with Gainwell or get contrarian with Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, or Grant Calcaterra. At least with Kenneth Gainwell, we know he could possibly get five touches in relief of Saquon Barkley. Since Week 11, the Chiefs run defense is just 20th in EPA/Rush and they’re allowing the sixth-most yards per carry at 4.85 so that’s more of a positive for Barkley and Hurts, but it applies to Gainwell as well if he sees the field.

Noah Gray, TE, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $7,500

Gray is a pretty sure-handed pass catcher for Patrick Mahomes. We did outline earlier in the article how good the Eagles are at defending the tight end position. The Birds likely give more attention to Kelce in this matchup and that could leave Gray open over the middle.

Gray caught 40-of-49 targets from Mahomes in the regular season and brought in all three of his targets against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. He’s averaging over 10 yards per catch on the year and is a dark horse to potentially find the end zone so the value with this play isn’t terrible since he has been a player priced in the $4,000 range on DraftKings on previous Showdown slates.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

Since the Chiefs acquired DeAndre Hopkins, we’ve seen JJSS and DHop basically share the same role in this offense. Hopkins had some big games for the Chiefs, but he’s been oddly quiet in the postseason. He’ll make the player pool below, but I prefer to highlight JuJu because he offers more savings and might be a safer play.

In the AFC Championship game, JuJu ran 19 routes to Hopkins’ 10. Two years ago in Super Bowl 57, JuJu caught seven of nine targets for 53 yards. Now the role is different this time around. The Chiefs also have Hollywood Brown, Xavier Worthy, and Hopkins. But at the $2,000 price tag I like the play because he also sees an efficiency bump when playing against single-high coverage shells, which the Eagles may utilize quite a bit in this matchup.

Justin Watson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs – DraftKings: $600 | FanDuel: $6,000

If you find yourself needing an absolute punt below $1,000 on DraftKings, then Watson is where I’d likely go. Do we have a lot to go off of? Not quite because he’s done nothing in the playoffs.

But he’s cheap enough where he can pay off his price tag with one or two catches to go with some yardage and we know that he can get the occasional deep target from Mahomes. Watson had multiple games with at least four fantasy points this season and that kind of return would easily pay off his price tag.

 

 

 

Super Bowl DFS NFL Picks: Kickers & D/ST

If this game plays out at all like it did two years ago, then we probably want to avoid the D/ST’s for this matchup. And let’s not forget, both teams got into some high scoring affairs just two weeks ago in their respective conference championship games. When these teams met in Super Bowl 57, there was just one turnover (a lost fumble by Jalen Hurts that was brought back for a touchdown), two sacks (both on Hurts), and the teams combined to put up 73 points and 757 yards of offense.

As things currently stand as of Friday morning, the Chiefs are favored by a point-and-a-half and the total is set at 48.5 points. That seems like a relatively easy over to take, but this is a DFS article not a betting article, despite all the high praise I’ve given the defenses so far in this article.

We can’t write off either D/ST because this is a Showdown slate. I do wish they were more reasonably priced on DraftKings. The Eagles are $4,200 and the Chiefs are $4,000. The kickers may have a better floor but a pick six or any special team touchdown is huge if you’re rostering a D/ST in the flex. 

I am probably more inclined to play the Eagles D/ST. It’s not so much that I think Philadelphia wins, but I don’t love the Chiefs D/ST as much. The Eagles just take such a run-heavy approach and it’s working very well for them. Jalen Hurts is attempting just 23 passes per game in the playoffs. That limits the potential for interceptions and sacks. And as we mentioned in Hurts’ section, he’s done very well protecting the ball.

The kickers are in play, but I wouldn’t bother with either at MVP/Captain. There are some slates and games where we lean into that. I don’t think it’s likely here. Jake Elliott provides a good floor, but there are likely cheaper options in play that may have a higher ceiling. Even in the NFC Championship game, he missed his only field goal attempt but made seven extra points. He correlates very well if you’re playing Barkley or Hurts at the top of your lineups using our NFL DFS Super Bowl picks.

Harrison Butker is in a similar spot to Elliott for the other squad. There’s plenty of correlation as a flex play, but he may have more variance just based on his game logs. This is a position dependent on how well the offense can move the ball up and down the field. Both defenses are tough, but I do expect points in this game. For what it’s worth, Butker put up seven fantasy points in this game two years ago while Elliott posted nine.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Player Pool: Super Bowl 59

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