For the fourth time this season, the NFL is giving us a Monday Night Football doubleheader. I don’t know if you’re as burnt out on these as I am, but the extra Playbooks take a toll on a man. But we once again deliver two separate NFL DFS Monday Night Football Showdown Playbooks for this two-game slate. You can use the Playbooks for each separate Showdown slate. Or you can collectively use the player pools when building lineups for the two-game slate.

This article highlights the first game kicking off at 7:00pm ET as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to the Motor City to take on the Detroit Lions. The Bucs have been a spectacle through six weeks as they’ve rallied for some incredible come-from-behind wins in the fourth quarter thanks to Baker Mayfield. He’s been electric and fun to watch whether you enjoy his level of play or his trash talk. Going into Detroit is no easy task especially because the Lions are coming off a tough loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6. We have plenty of players, matchups, and injuries to look at. Let’s take a look at the first NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook as we close out Week 7!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Buccaneers vs. Lions Game Preview

Game 1 of the latest Monday Night Football doubleheader gives us a potential NFC Playoff preview between the Buccaneers and Lions. Both teams have been navigating injuries to kick off the season, but both have prevailed with elite quarterback play and great coaching.

The Buccaneers enter this game sitting atop the NFC South with a 5-1 record and they’ve been the cardiac kids in the fourth quarter. A lot of credit has to be given to Baker Mayfield who has been the accelerant for the Bucs fourth quarter rallies. He’s playing at an MVP level and he’s done it behind a beat-up offensive line and he’s not yet had his entire wide receiver room together for a single game. Mike Evans is set to return after missing three games. Chris Godwin missed the start of the year, and will miss this game as well. Last year’s rookie sensation, Jalen McMillan, has missed the start of the season with a neck injury. Even this year’s rookie phenom could miss this matchup with a hamstring injury but reports indicate he has a chance to play. But the Bucs have also been winning without Bucky Irving of late. So give credit where it’s due. Baker Mayfield is doing everything to keep this team in contention.

The Detroit Lions will likely be pretty motivated in this matchup. They looked pretty flat last week against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. They took a pretty bad loss and enter this matchup at 4-2. The Lions don’t have the injury bug on offense like the Bucs do. However, the secondary for Detroit is in rough shape as they’ll be missing a few starters on defense whether that’s due to injury or suspension (Brian Branch).

But this game should be an exciting one to watch with an implied total of 53.5 points and the hometown Lions are sizable favorites by six points. Let’s take a look at the top plays for Game 1 in this edition of the NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Lions Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Bucs head on the road for this matchup and have ruled out some key players. The offensive line has been a bit of a mess to start the year, but at least Tristan Wirfs has looked solid in the three games he’s been active. But the organization has ruled out offensive tackle Luke Haggard, whose been a depth piece for the team since they lost Luke Goedeke to injury. They also ruled out Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin, which we were all expecting.

The good news for Tampa Bay is that Mike Evans is set to return after missing three games due to a hamstring injury. There is a possibility Emeka Egbuka suits up for this matchup, but his status is a bit more uncertain considering he just sustained his hamstring injury last week.

The hometown Detroit Lions are licking their wounds on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve already ruled out Kerby Joseph, Avonte Maddox, and Terrion Arnold in the secondary so that puts any active Bucs pass catcher in play. On the defensive line, the team is listing Alim McNeill and DJ Reader as questionable. Offensive tackle, Taylor Decker, is also listed as questionable.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 10/20

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $11,200

This isn’t so much a surprise but every time the Lions are in primetime, ARSB is a candidate to make this article as a Captain recommendation. He sees volume, can get the 100-yard bonus, and there’s touchdown equity. The matchups don’t ever really matter with this guy. You plug him in and collect the rewards.

St. Brown has 40 catches in his last five games with six touchdowns in that span. Last week was a rather soft stat line with just 45 receiving yards but he did have 9 receptions on 10 targets. But Tampa Bay is a team that blitzes at the 6th highest rate (31.4%) in the league. When Jared Goff is getting blitzed, he leans heavily on his top receiver. St. Brown ranks top five among wide receivers in target rate, route rate, targets per route run, and yards per route run when his quarterback faces the blitz. We should once again expect heavy involvement for the WR1 in Detroit.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $11,200

This goes against conventional wisdom especially because, while Mayfield has been exciting to watch this season, he’s really only hit his fantasy “ceiling” just once. That came in Week 5 against the Seattle Seahawks where he returned 29.7 fantasy points on DraftKings. Overall, he’s only eclipsed 20 fantasy points twice in six games. He’s also played with fire at times. He’s only thrown one interception. But he’s fumbled the ball four times although he hasn’t lost any of them.

Mayfield ranks 5th in EPA/Play (0.29) among qualified quarterbacks and he’s 4th in average depth of target (8.7). A lot of the excitement has come late in games with some come-from-behind victories. This game should have the kind of back-and-forth narrative where he’s thrived and put up big numbers.

Jahmyr Gbbs, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $10,400

The Lions haven’t played in a ton of competitive games so far. In fact, there was a stretch where the matchups were a cake walk. Last week they went against the Kansas City Chiefs who can obviously provide some push back and punch a team in the mouth. The Lions lost but it was a competitive game where Gibbs saw some ridiculous usage and involvement. He saw career highs in snap share (61.8%) and route share (52.4%), and he handled over 80% of the rush attempts. It’s good to see that’s the kind of workload he’s capable of getting in this kind of game script.

The role didn’t translate to much fantasy production, but it was refreshing to see because he’s had to split the workload with David Montgomery. Monty will make the player pool below, but I much prefer Gibbs in this matchup. Gibbs carries heavy involvement in the running game and he’s reliable for a couple receptions each game as well. Let’s load up and look for multiple receptions and a touchdown in this matchup.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $9,600

So this one comes with a caveat. I’m going to put Emeka Egbuka in the player pool below. He’s currently questionable “with a real shot to play” Monday night. Take that with a grain of salt. It’s a hamstring injury and it would be smart to rest the kid a week. If Egbuka plays, we know he is worth playing at Captain and on the two-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel.

While Egbuka has a shot to play, it seems far more likely that Evans plays and he will likely operate as the WR1. Evans hasn’t played since Week 3 but he saw at least eight targets in each of his first three games. And let’s not forget, he’s easily Baker Mayfield’s first read and that’ll likely be the case on Monday without Chris Godwin and Egbuka’s beat up. The Detroit secondary is also in shambles. With four weeks off to nurse the hamstring I’m assuming Evans is ready to be unleashed once again for our NFL DFS Monday Night Football picks.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $10,000

Over his last five games, Goff has completed 74.8% of his pass attempts for 1,165 yards, 13 touchdowns, and just one interception. The Bucs have a respectable pass rush, but I’m not sure it’ll matter in this matchup. The Lions offensive line ranks 13th in both pressure rate allowed (29.9%) and pass block win rate (62%).

Among qualified quarterbacks, Goff ranks 5th in EPA/Play (0.29), 4th in success rate (56.2%), and he’s 1st in completion percentage over expected (11.5%). He does rank 29th in average depth of target (6.7) but just remember there are a lot of shorter passes over the middle to St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. They also involve Gibbs and David Montgomery as check-down options. Alas, the shorter aDOT isn’t a huge hindrance on Goff as we’ve seen in his last five games because his pass catchers can do so much after the catch.

Goff doesn’t offer a ton of rushing upside and he hasn’t registered the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings since Week 2. If this turns into a shootout Monday night, then he can hit the bonus and possibly throw for three touchdowns. With so many high upside pass catchers for the Lions you could use at Captain, Goff is an ideal flex candidate for our Buccaneers vs. Lions DFS picks.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $8,800

First and foremost, I will start this off by saying the Detroit Lions are tough to run on. On the season they’re allowing just 95.5 rushing yards per game to opposing offenses and the Bucs’ offensive line ranks 20th in yards before contact per carry (0.99).

While Bucky Irving has been out with injury, White has filled in admirably as the team’s RB1. He’s far from efficient (averaging 3.39 yards per carry the last two weeks) but there’s volume, involvement in the passing game, and he has three touchdowns across this small sample size. The matchup keeps me down on him just a little bit but it’s very likely he sees 15-20 touches in this matchup and if the Bucs are trailing at any point in this game, that can only help his outlook.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $8,000

It’s hard to write Williams off on any NFL DFS Showdown slate. He’s had four really bad games for fantasy football and two really good performances. It seems wild but we have to just acknowledge the reality that he’s touchdown dependent. Through his first give games he had a total of 11 receptions. Fortunately, last week he caught six-of-seven targets for 66 yards and a score.

The Bucs play a lot of zone coverage (nearly 75%) and Williams has performed well in this coverage with the extra space and he’s able to beat defenders with his speed. The Bucs secondary also ranks 29th in yards after catch per reception (5.66) which plays into Williams’ big play upside nicely.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $6,800

This section of the article was a tossup between LaPorta and Sterling Shepard but the latter lacks the volume if both Evans and Egbuka are active. LaPorta is still a big red zone threat with touchdowns in back-to-back games.

The Bucs have also had their problems covering the tight end position lately. Last week Jake Tonges was able to provide a good floor with six receptions for 58 yards. But in their two games prior, both AJ Barner and Dallas Goedert were able to each find the end zone twice against the Buccaneers. And those two players are not as talented as LaPorta is. We’d love to see a little more volume go his way, but we can lean into the play simply because the Bucs have struggled against tight ends.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Cade Otton, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $5,600

Otton is tough because his emergence of late has come with all the injuries that have hit the wide receiver group for Tampa Bay. And Otton has always been a guy who has done better when Mike Evans has missed time, which has been the last three weeks. In that span, Otton has 12 catches on 15 targets for 141 yards.

There is still some appeal with Otton in this matchup despite the fact Mike Evans is returning. There’s still no Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka could potentially return very soon following a hamstring injury. And I love targeting any pass catcher against this depleted secondary of Detroit. The Bucs would still be wise to keep Otton involved especially when they can move the ball into the red zone.

Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $2,800

I’m not as jaded as a lot of the fantasy community when it comes to Sean Tucker. The guy has been in the league a few years now and he gets too much credit for one great game last season. With Bucky Irving out, the Bucs have shown that they trust Rachaad White to handle the bulk of the carries while Tucker keeps his fingers crossed for goal line work.

And that was the case last week. Tucker found the end zone early but finished with just 8.5 fantasy points. That’s a serviceable return at this price tag, but again he needed the touchdown. I am still including him in this article as a punt because he has six touches in each of his last two games and he has some potential to catch passes. But if this is a player the field flocks to for either slate then I’m going to avoid him.

Brock Wright, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $1,600

This is a play that might be better suited for the two-game slate. But Brock Wright is capable of occasionally popping up on the stat sheet with a few targets every so often. Sure, in four games this year he’s been kept off the stat sheet. But in two games he’s received at least three targets and found the end zone in the outlier performances.

Sure, it’s risky. And you can also roll the dice on Isaac Teslaa, who carries similar risk as a punt in his own right. But we also highlighted how bad the Buccaneers have been against the tight end position and Wright could smash this price tag for the Showdown slate if he can find the end zone as a contrarian, low-cost recommendation.

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Lions DFS Player Pool, 10/20

Author’s Note: So as of very early Monday morning, FanDuel was having difficulties with their pricing. For starters, the prices for Monday Night Football’s two-game slate were not available. And on Monday, there were significant login issues preventing me from seeing the prices. The table below will only show the DraftKings prices, but this table also applies to the FanDuel slate as well. Normally I would wait and fix the issue, but I’ll be traveling on Monday and won’t be readily available to add the FanDuel pool below.

Player Pool

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Stacks

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