Let’s unwind after an absolutely loaded NFL DFS Week 2 main slate which saw several elite quarterbacks in action. We wrap up the weekend with another NFC matchup as the Atlanta Vikings visit the Minnesota Vikings. Both J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix were first-round selections in the 2024 NFL Draft and this game has some sneaky upside for our Falcons vs. Vikings DFS picks. So let’s look at the betting lines, injury news, and matchups for this week’s Sunday Night Football DFS Playbook!

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Vikings DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 9/14

This primetime affair will feature a pair of very young quarterbacks, J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix These two haven’t played against each other in the NFL, but they did meet a couple years ago in the college football national championship. McCarthy’s Michigan Wolverines got the best of Penix’s Washington Huskies and both went on to be selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

The earlier main slate had some very strong implied game totals. This one is rather middle-of-the-pack at 44.5 points. The quarterback play isn’t as elite as previous primetime Showdown slates this year. But we can’t see Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson every week.

These two teams face off with some elite positional players. The Falcons ran 71(!) plays last week in a loss while Minnesota ran 49 in a come from behind win. It really makes you think which offensive scheme can win. Because we know the Vikings will send the blitz at a high rate. The Falcons were tested by Tampa’s pass rush last week so they come in pretty prepared. And the Falcons, to their credit, registered a top 10 blitz rate in Week 1 as well.

With two young quarterbacks it might be in our interest to start mixing in the D/ST’s for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups. For all the primetime slates up until now, it’s been a heavy dose of mixing in kickers for potential high scoring games. This game feels a bit different. Read further into the Defense/Special Teams section for an explanation and as always, check out the full player pool for our SNF DFS picks!

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Vikings SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Falcons +3.5 (-115)
    • Vikings -3.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (+150)
    • Vikings (-180)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 44.5 (-110)
    • Under 44.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Falcons +3.5 (-115)
    • Vikings -3.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (+152)
    • Vikings (-180)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 44.5 (-115)
    • Under 44.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Falcons vs. Vikings SNF, September 14th 

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we have zero weather concerns for our SNF DFS picks.

 

Falcons vs. Vikings Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 2

We’ll have to monitor the Atlanta Falcons inactives leading into this matchup. I don’t anticipate any big, surprise inactives. Drake London and Darnell Mooney appeared on earlier renditions of the injury report in the week, but neither carry a designation heading into Sunday Night Football so they’re good to go. Younghoe Koo was declared out by Atlanta so Parker Romo will travel with the team to serve as their place kicker.

The Vikings have already announced three players will miss this game. Christian Darrisaw, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Jeff Okudah were all ruled out on Friday. They’re also hoping Harrison Smith is recovered from an illness. He’s currently questionable heading into Sunday night.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $13,800

The matchup isn’t ideal in that the Vikings have a pretty stout run defense. They gave up 119 rushing yards last week to the Chicago Bears but 58 of those went to Caleb Williams while D’Andre Swift averaged just 3.1 yards per carry.

Bijan Robinson is a different animal though. The Falcons offense had its struggles last week but Bijan managed to produce although it was through the air. And that’s likely where he’ll produce in this game while still touching the ball 18+ times. Bijan caught 6-of-7 targets last week for 100 receiving yards and a touchdown. It wasn’t pretty but he at least grabbed one of the 100-yard bonuses on DraftKings.

The Vikings blitz at a higher rate than a large majority of the league. They also play a lot of 2-high safeties and that forces offenses to either throw underneath or check down to the running back for passes behind the line of scrimmage. It won’t be pretty but Bijan can certainly still hit his ceiling.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings - DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $13,600

Similar to Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson also didn’t have a magical performance in Week 1 but alas, he found the end zone to salvage his performance on Monday Night Football. Expectations probably need to be kept in check. He’s got a “rookie” quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who missed his true rookie season with an injury. So the Vikings clearly didn’t want him gun slinging in his debut and the Vikings still got the win.

On a short week they host the Atlanta Falcons and when these two teams met late last season, Jefferson caught all seven of his targets for 132 yards and two touchdowns. In fact, Jefferson has played the Falcons twice in his career and between those two games he has 16 receptions, 298 yards, and four touchdowns.

The Falcons have a rather young secondary that gave up a pair of touchdowns to Emeka Egbuka last week. Sunday night they’ll see a much more difficult test in Justin Jefferson, although Jefferson likely sees shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell on some of his routes.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $10,200

London is off the injury report after sustaining a shoulder injury last week against the Bucs. But in four games with Michael Penix as his starting quarterback, London is averaging 13.5 targets per game. Last week he caught 8-of-15 targets but for only 55 targets. He ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points in Week 1. That kind of volume certainly warrants putting him in this section.

And this is kind of a dumb stat that I saw on Twitter (I did verify its authenticity), but Drake London has scored in every Week 2 game he’s ever played. Granted, he’s only in his fourth season in the NFL. If he scores Sunday night, then maybe this stat isn’t so stupid anymore!

I actually like the fact that the Vikings blitz a lot. In the three games Penix started in 2024, he was blitzed 33 times and London was targeted 17 times when Penix felt pressure. So I’m keeping a tighter Captain section than normal because I have the most confidence in these three. There are plenty of others that will be featured in the Playbook that you can decide if they warrant some Captain exposure.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Michael Penix, QB, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,400

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $11,200

I want to lump the quarterbacks together because this is the first NFL DFS Showdown Playbook of the 2025 NFL season where I don’t think you need to play either at Captain. There are position players with bigger upside. Both of these quarterbacks performed fairly well last week. They both found the end zone with their legs. That naturally elevates their ceiling.

But I want to temper expectations because they have a grand total of FIVE career starts between them. Remember, quarterbacks only appeared in the top 1% of Showdown lineups as a captain on just 13% of the primetime slates last year. So, if the rest of the field wants to look at last week’s numbers and play these two at Captain, then I’ll happily look elsewhere and play Bijan, Jefferson, London, Mooney, Jones, Mason, Pitts, etc. at Captain.

The Falcons actually got a pretty good test last week against the Buccaneers and they lost when they had an opportunity to tie the game but Younghoe Koo missed the field goal as time expired. But last season only the Minnesota Vikings blitzed more than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And the Falcons got their first meeting with the Bucs out of the way and now draw Minnesota. They should be well prepared for the pass rush they’ll see. And Penix was only sacked once while throwing for 298 yards on 42(!) pass attempts last week.

The concern with the Vikings and McCarthy is purely volume. By recommending Justin Jefferson in the section above, I’m predicting he can be efficient even if he is shadowed by A.J. Terrell. But McCarthy only attempted 20 passes last week and the Vikings ran just 49 plays. McCarthy threw a pick six in the third quarter to fall down 17-6 but they rallied with three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to regain the lead and win.

There are going to be growing pains, but I struggle to see both quarterbacks going back-to-back with 23+ fantasy points two weeks in a row. So I’m going a bit conservative and strictly only playing these two in the Flex as correlation plays.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $8,200

Mooney makes his 2025 debut after he suffered an injury early in training camp that ultimately led him to miss last week’s game. Mooney caught 6-of-7 targets when these two teams met last year for a whopping 142 yards.

The big thing is the blitz, but Mooney doesn’t have the rapport with Penix that London has. However, Mooney did generate more targets against teams that applied more pressure. In 2024 Drake London’s first-read target share was 34% when opposing teams would blitz. Mooney wasn’t far behind at 27% which is still a significant amount.

It’s hard to gauge how involved he’ll be but I do like that he doesn’t carry a designation. I’d almost feel better for Mooney if Cousins was getting the start for this game, but this is a player that still has big play potential regardless of the quarterback.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $9,600

Jordan Mason, RB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $7,000

I really wish Mason could just become the 1A to Jones’s 1B, but our hands are tied until then. This duo made their 2025 debut last Monday and there was solid production for both. Jones wasn’t efficient in the run game averaging just 2.87 yards per carry on eight attempts, but he added three receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown.

Mason, on the other hand, was the more efficient runner. He averaged 4.53 YPC on 15 carries while adding a reception for seven yards. I love the volume for Mason especially because he’s a much larger more physical back while Jones profiles better for third down work and passing situations.

If I have to lean one way as of right now it’s toward Jones because of the pass catching upside. But he also handled 70% of the rush attempts in the red zone last week including 82.8% inside the 10-yard line. He carries a little more touchdown equity but I love Mason’s potentially for a big run and score.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $5,800

Pitts looked great in Week 1, but he also caught a touchdown in Week 1 against the Steelers last year and showed signs of promise in that game, even though Kirk Cousins played hurt and the play calling was atrocious. So we should temper expectations a bit with Pitts.

But in Week 1 last week with Penix under center, Pitts looked really solid. He caught 7-of-8 targets for 59 yards last week and this came after an entire preseason/training camp of his quarterback hyping him up. Pitts forced 0.29 missed tackled forced per reception, averaged 5.86 yards after contact, and he touted a 10.5% route win rate. Despite being a one-game sample size (which is why we’re not trying to overreact), those marks would be his career best across a whole season. But last week was just one game. And so is tonight.

The Vikings held Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland to three receptions for 43 yards last year. But I also don’t want to put Pitts in a box as a normal tight end because he lines up at receiver plenty and clearly developed some chemisty with Penix in the offseason. He’s a nice piece to add to your lineup and I think he’s worth sprinkling in at Captain as well given the injuries to Minnesota’s defense.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $4,800

The return of Darnell Mooney definitely tanks his value a bit. Last week McCloud brought in 3-of-5 targets for 51 yards. McCloud played a huge role last season when these two teams met. He caught 8-of-11 targets for 98 yards. But it’s always worth rehashing that Kirk Cousins got the start in that revenge game against Minnesota.

By playing McCloud you are taking on somewhat of an aggressive price tag, but I do like the value on FanDuel. Jamal Agnew has been ruled out for this game and even Drake London took some shots last week as well. So while McCloud may lose reps to Mooney in this matchup, he’s probably one of the healthier receivers the Falcons have on their roster.

Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $5,400

Thielen hardly made a splash on Monday Night Football but he’s Mr. Sunday Night apparently as he has accumulated 452 receiving yards in his last five appearances on Sunday Night Football. He was kept in check last week but there were reports his snaps and routes would be limited after he was acquired via trade late in training camp.

If the Falcons are going to give heavy attention to Justin Jefferson then we can find good value elsewhere among the Minnesota pass catchers and that also includes T.J. Hockenson and Jalen Nailor. I know Thielen is getting up there in age since he’s been in the league since 2013. But according to Fantasy Points Data, he led all receivers last year in average separation score on go routes so he still has some burst to his game. Let’s hope for an expanded role with more involvement this week but don’t sleep on the other secondary and tertiary pass catchers for Minnesota as well.

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $4,200

Bijan Robinson is probably a little modest when he says the Falcons have a 1A/1B running back situation between him and Tyler Allgeier. Bijan’s far and away the better player but Allgeier is serviceable.

But we also have a running back priced way down who touched the ball 10 times last week. Now he wasn’t efficient, but neither was Bijan. Regardless of his status, the Falcons do find it necessary to give Bjian plenty of rest to keep him fresh and that does keep Allgeier involved enough to warrant some exposure at a very cheap price tag. 

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

So everyone knows the Vikings blitz at a high rate. There were even times last week against the Chicago Bears they showed Cover 0 to mess with Caleb Williams with the safeties lined up on the edges. But prior to the pre-snap motion by Chicago, the Vikings would bail and reset to 2-High to avoid being beaten deep. It certainly worked at times and is a unique way to test young, inexperienced quarterbacks by throwing them off their game.

And it was worth mentioning, the Vikings blitz more than any other team in the league. But they also had the fourth-most sacks last year. So we can’t sit here and assume they’ll amass several sacks. Even last week against the Bears, they only collected two. So it’s totally fine to lean into that narrative because pressure is fun and can lead to turnovers. And Penix still isn’t a very experienced quarterback. We just expect him to lean heavily on Robinson and London.

The Falcons defense didn’t surrender much production to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week. They only allowed 260 yards total and 23 points. They did blitz at a 35.1% clip last week which ranked 10th in the NFL. The Bears only blitzed J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings offense on 20.8% of his dropbacks last week. It’ll be interesting to see if they maintain that level of pressure while the Vikings are once again without Christian Darrisaw.

As far as the kickers go, I’m leaning into the team that’s favored even if it’s only by 3.5 points. We’ve seen Will Reichard and while he isn’t a household name, he’s serviceable. But he only completed 80% of his field goal attempts while going 13-for-18 from 40+ yards out. But he correlates well in most Vikings stacks for this game. And for the first handful of primetime Showdown slates, a kicker in the flex has been optimal more often than not.

The kicker for Atlanta is a bit of an unknown. John Parker Romo has largely spent most of his career bouncing around from practice squad to practice squad since 2022. But he’s an Atlanta native and the only argument I can make for him is that he’ll work in Falcons stacks. Reichard is the preferred kicker for this slate but the $5,000 price tag for him on DraftKings is aggressive for a kicker who isn’t consistent from range.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Vikings DFS Player Pool: SNF, 9/14

Player Pool

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