Week 15 is upon us and we kick off a new week with a matchup from the NFC South… (and the crowd goes mild). All jokes aside it’s another NFL DFS Showdown slate and there are plenty of worthy players to preview for this edition of our TNF DFS picks especially with your season-long fantasy football playoffs getting underway!

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers still have the lead on the division, but they’ve lost four-of-five games since the team’s Bye week. And technically they’re tied for the division lead with the Carolina Panthers. But that’s still an enviable position to be in, and one the Atlanta Falcons would prefer. The Dirty Birds are 4-9 and have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. They have plenty of talent on offense, but one has to wonder what changes loom in the upcoming offseason?

But we’ve got a nice slate with plenty of offensive options at our disposal. Let’s take a look at the Falcons vs. Buccaneers DFS picks to kick off Week 15!

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 12/11

The Atlanta Falcons go on the road for our TNF DFS picks and they’re surprisingly only 4.5-point underdogs. The Falcons got off to a nice 3-2 start this season but have since lost seven of their last eight games with the lone win in that span coming against the lowly New Orleans Saints.

There are plenty of things that need to be addressed in the offseason for the Falcons. The first of which is whether or not they bring back Raheem Morris as head coach? They could also consider a change at general manager, but Terry Fontenot’s job might be a bit safer as GM’s tend to get a longer leash.

But it’s baffling that this Falcons team has struggled. The defense is much improved and they are pretty deep with young talent. They have a great pass rush and the secondary can hold their own. But the offense has had its struggles and it largely boils down to the quarterback position. They possess a great running back duo and they have good pass catchers. But this experiment they attempted at quarterback has not worked out.

Prior to the 2024 season, the team signed Kirk Cousins to a big contract, and they drafted Michael Penix in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. But neither are proving to be the long-term solution whether you consider the quality of play or the injuries both have sustained. But this team should be better than 4-9. Since the start of the 2024 NFL season, the Falcons have just six wins in Mercedes Benz Stadium. By comparison, the Georgia Bulldogs have four wins in the same stadium since the start of the 2024 campaign.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit in a tie for the division lead, but they have had a tough stretch of games. Immediately following their Bye week they had to play the New England Patriots and then go on the road to play the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams. They lost all three of those games but beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13. Unfortunately, the Bucs lost last week to the Saints.

The good news for Tampa is that they have two remaining games against the Carolina Panthers, the team they’re in a tie with. They also have this game, which is perceived as winnable, and they also have the Miami Dolphins lined up in Week 17. They should have some reinforcements back on offense for this matchup. Mike Evans is due to return soon and there’s a chance Tristan Wirfs can suit up after missing Sunday’s game.

We’ll monitor the injuries on both sides as we now enter the home stretch of the fantasy football season and we kick off the final four weeks of the season with the NFC South! Here are this week’s Falcons vs. Buccaneers DFS picks for Thursday Night Football! 

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Falcons +4.5 (-115)
    • Buccaneers -4.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (+195)
    • Buccaneers (-238)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 44.5 (-115)
    • Under 44.5 (-105)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Falcons +4.5 (-110)
    • Buccaneers -4.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (+194)
    • Buccaneers (-235)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 44.5 (-110)
    • Under 44.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Falcons vs. Buccaneers TNF, December 11th

Temperatures will be in the high 50’s right around kickoff and they’ll drop a little bit as the game progresses, but it’s nothing these teams can’t handle. Winds won’t exceed 10 miles per hour and there’s no rain in the forecast.

 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 15

Since this article is being published Wednesday morning, and because we only have “estimated” practice reports so far, I’ll provide an update to the article following Wednesday’s practice session for both teams. But if you’d like to view the estimated reports for both organizations you can click right here.

As of Wednesday morning, the Falcons have only listed Drake London as a “DNP” on their estimated reports so unless he can make an appearance in Wednesday’s practice, it seems unlikely he’ll suit up in Week 15. 

For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it does appear as if Mike Evans will make his return after a long absence with a collarbone injury. There were reports that he could have played last week but the team was a little precautious and held him out.

Update: Following Wednesday's practice reports, the Falcons ruled out Drake London once again and they're listing Kyle Pitts as questionable but we should expect him to play.

The Buccaneers will be activating Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan off IR, which really crowds the wide receiver room for the Bucs, but this is ultimately a positive sign either way. They are also listing Cade Otton as doubtful but it looks as if Tristan Wirfs has a good chance to return after he practiced in full on Wednesday.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons - DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

Bijan is probably the most obvious Captain candidate on this slate. In Week 14 he was able to surpass 1,000 rushing yards on the season and we still have four games to go. He’s also averaging about a reception every quarter while adding 600 receiving yards. Surprisingly he only has seven touchdowns on the year. But this is still a very strong volume play with the potential for 20+ touches. 

When these two teams met back in Week 1, Robinson struggled to get any production going on the ground averaging just 2.0 yards per carry on a dozen rushes. Fortunately, he managed to catch six passes for 100 receiving yards and a touchdown to return 27.4 fantasy points on DraftKings. 

Bijan’s coming off a very underwhelming game in Week 14 but he’s also returned 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings on four separate occasions this year. That’s the kind of ceiling performance we’re targeting with this Captain recommendation for our TNF DFS picks.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,600

Irving returned from a near two-month absence in Week 13 and while the efficiency has been down, the volume has not. The good news for those who decide on playing Irving at Captain is that the floor is good enough to where you can still min cash even if he isn’t having a huge game. He’s played in just six games this year, but he has four total touchdowns while providing at least 13.9 fantasy points in each performance.

On the season the Atlanta Falcons are allowing 131 rushing yards per game (24th in the NFL) and opposing offenses are averaging 28.8 rush attempts per game (25th). Now let’s be mindful that their defensive metrics against the run are a bit skewed because the Colts ran for 323 yards against them back in Week 10. But even last week they gave up 129 rushing yards to the Seattle Seahawks.

Atlanta’s pass rush does well in generating pressure and collecting sacks. However, the Atlanta defense has given up 24+ points to six of their last seven opponents. If Tampa’s going to put points on the board Thursday night, you have to like Irving’s touchdown equity and potential for 17-to-20 touches.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $10,600

Mike Evans is the kind of play that I would prefer to either play at Captain or not play at all. We obviously know what the ceiling is and he’s developed a good rapport with Baker Mayfield over the last few seasons. But he is returning from injury and at his age, it really wouldn’t take much for him to pull up limp with a hamstring injury or something like that. We’ve seen it before.

But at the end of the day, this is arguably the greatest receiver in the organization’s history and if he’s healthy without limitations then I expect volume to go his way. Now when Chris Godwin Jr. returned back in Week 12 he only saw two receptions on four targets, but has come on strong in recent weeks. But I’m of the mindset that Evans may not be as limited because there were rumors that he was very close to playing in Week 14.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,200

It’s been tough to play Mayfield of late after he got off to such a hot start despite the amount of injuries. But over the last four weeks the volume has been way down as he’s averaged just 26.25 pass attempts per game while completing just 54.3% of his pass attempts.

At times he’s looked as if he’s been playing through an injury, hence why they’ve leaned on the run so much especially with Bucky Irving returning two weeks ago. And despite that Baker has still rushed for 25+ yards in three of his last four games.

With Mike Evans likely returning for this game, Baker’s feeling more and more like a safer play especially since his connection with Emeka Egbuka seems to be in limbo. This is a matchup I feel better about if Tristan Wirfs is able to suit up so we’ll have to monitor inactives 90 minutes prior to kickoff. But with this offense slowly getting healthier, Baker’s ceiling gets a boost.

Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $8,400

At this price tag, and with the recent target share he’s collected, Pitts is a core play for our TNF DFS picks. According to Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points, Pitts has seen target shares of 29%, 22%, 24%, and 33% in four games with Kirk Cousins and without Drake London. That 33% target share came most recently in Week 14.

In that four-game sample size he’s averaging about 64 receiving yards per game but he just struggles to find the end zone. But even in his last two games he’s returned 15+ fantasy points in both contests with 13 total receptions for 172 yards.

We know Pitts isn’t your prototypical tight end because he lines up more at wide receiver. But even if we wanted to look at how the Bucs have defended tight ends in their last three games, they’ve allowed 22 receptions for 223 yards and a pair of touchdowns to the position so there’s potential for Pitts to even be a nice affordable Captain candidate if you can handle the variance.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $9,600

I prefer the price tag more on FanDuel than DraftKings, but it hurts so bad not to list him as a Captain or Core Play. He had such an electric start to the season, but the output just hasn’t been there of late. Over the team’s last six games, he’s had five games with a target share of at least 28% and he’s only returned double-digit fantasy points once in that sample size.

It’s actually unheard of how the volume is there but the production has taken a hit. As Ryan Heath pointed out on Sunday, since Week 8 Egbuka is WR4 in target share but he’s WR38 in fantasy points per game and unfortunately the latter stat is what we care most about.

With Mike Evans likely coming back, he may lose a couple targets, but I still believe in the upside. It’s just tough to lock him in with confidence after the stretch he’s been on following Tampa’s Bye week but at least the schedule starts to get easier over the last four weeks of the season.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $10,400

I can’t say I’m incredibly optimistic about Cousins for this game. But at the very least this is a manageable price tag on DraftKings for a starting quarterback and this position arguably has the safest floor in fantasy football unless you’re Jalen Hurts playing the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.

Volume isn’t really a premium with Cousins because between Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, the Falcons could choose to run the ball 30+ times and Cousins did have two interceptions last week against the Seattle Seahawks.

But we just need him to be great for one game. And that’s this game. Cousins isn’t very good anymore but there are weapons at his disposal. Against the Bucs in 2024, he threw four touchdowns in each game. Even if he can just give us maybe 200 yards and multiple touchdowns, we can live with that as a Flex option at this price tag. The Bucs D/ST has been torched through the air and on the ground by opposing quarterbacks of late so I’m hoping Cousins can give us something in a decent matchup.

Chris Godwin JR., WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

Godwin’s snaps were really only limited in one game since his return and that was in Week 12 where he caught just two passes on four targets. Since then, the workload has grown a bit. In Week 13 he caught three passes on five targets for 78 yards. Last week he saw eight targets against the New Orleans Saints. He caught five of them for 55 yards.

Godwin is obviously no stranger to facing the Falcons. But he also hasn’t found the end zone against this team since Week 2 of the 2021 season. In seven games against Atlanta from 2018-2021 (including the playoffs) Godwin averaged 6.7 receptions per game, 104 receiving yards per game, and he had nine touchdowns in that span. Since the start of the 2022 season, Godwin is averaging 5.6 receptions and roughly 60 yards per game with no touchdowns.

With Evans coming back it’ll be hard to pinpoint which receiver can go off for Tampa each week and this team also has some younger weapons to utilize as well. I do like Godwin in this matchup but not enough to consider him a core play.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $7,000

Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $4,200

For our Falcons vs. Buccaneers DFS picks we have some great value options at our disposal which is refreshing because the last two Showdown primetime slates to close out Week 14 didn’t give us much to work with.

Despite Bucky Irving returning and seeing heavy volume, both Rachaad White and Sean Tucker are still involved. White’s coming off a week where he had a dozen touches and even Tucker had seven carries while finding the end zone. And mind you, Bucky Irving led the backfield with 17 touches. I anticipate Tucker will carry more ownership simply because of the savings he provides but both are in play as paydown options.

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $7,400

The Bucs aren’t the only backfield in this game with a backup running back we can get exposure to. And “backup” is a bit insulting to Allgeier because he’s a viable 1B to Bijan’s 1A.

In his last five games, Allgeier has actually scored four times with double-digit touches in four of those contests. Moreover, he even carries some involvement in the passing game with receptions of 20+ yards in each of his last two games.

Over Atlanta’s last four contests, Allgeier actually has five carries inside the 10-yard line so it’s not like they’re exclusively feeding Robinson with high value touches, and Allgeier has actually scored more touchdowns than his teammate this season.

David Sills, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $6,400

You can try to gamble on the likes of the value pass catchers on Tampa (Sterling Shepard, Tez Johnson, Jalen McMillan), but if we’re looking at the first couple estimated practice reports for Atlanta, this feels like another game where Drake London is going to be ruled out.

So if David Sills is going to be getting some more reps and possibly seeing three or four targets then I have to say he’s probably the safer “floor” play while the likes of Tez Johnson and Jalen McMillan are better for GPP’s. And McMillan should really only be rostered if he’s active and you’re entering 150 lineups.

But with London out we’ve seen Sills get at least three targets in three straight games and he found the end zone in Weeks 12 and 13. I can live with that kind of volume for a value play.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The sportsbooks aren’t anticipating an offensive barn burner for this matchup by any means. As of Wednesday morning we’re looking at a game with an implied total of just 44.5 points and the Bucs are favored by 4.5 points. Tampa has had a rough go since their Bye week. They’re 1-4 and their defense has allowed 24+ points to four of their last five opponents. If there’s one saving grace, it’s that they have seven defensive takeaways in that five-game span. Kirk Cousins has started the last three games for Atlanta and he’s completed just 61.6% of his pass attempts while throwing three interceptions in as many games. The Bucs are an okay play for our TNF DFS picks. However, this is a stiff price tag for a D/ST that hasn’t reached eight fantasy points Since Week 8.

On the other hand, we have the Atlanta Falcons at $3,400 on DraftKings who can at least can claim 43 sacks in 13 games so far this season. However, they rank 20th in points per game allowed (24.1) and the Bucs are getting healthier with key weapons returning for their playoff push. But at least the Falcons have managed to strangely play better on the road than at home. They’re surrendering just 19.4 points per game on the road as opposed to 27.5 points per game in Mercedes Benz Stadium.

Chase McLaughlin will be a trendy option assuming the Bucs get Mike Evans back and potentially Tristan Wirfs. Since the team’s Bye week, McLaughlin has only attempted seven field goals and just two have come from 40+ yards out. But I don’t necessarily want to say that trend continues in Week 15 because we can’t view the current Bucs from what we’ve seen all year. They’ve dealt with plenty of injuries and this is arguably the healthiest the offense has been all season. We can at least acknowledge that there’s variance here. He has a very low floor if the game script isn’t in Tampa’s favor. But we also saw him deliver four performances of 12+ fantasy points from Weeks 3-8 when the offense was clicking.

Zane Gonzalez is a pretty strong option on paper. For starters, he’s been getting great volume of late and it’s given his fantasy production a very sturdy floor. He has missed a field goal in back-to-back games but in his last four contests, he’s seen 11 attempts. Seven of his last nine conversions have come from 40+ yards out. As long as this isn’t a blowout, he’s a decent pick capable of converting multiple attempts from further out.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Buccaneers DFS Player Pool: TNF, 12/11

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