We kick off Week 14 with a matchup out of the NFC that could really shake up the playoff standings. The Dallas Cowboys are fresh off a huge win on Thanksgiving over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys sit at 6-5-1 and head to the Motor City for our latest TNF DFS picks, and wouldn’t you know it, the Detroit Lions are the team sitting ahead of them in the playoff standings. Both teams are currently just outside the loaded NFC playoff field so this game matters deeply for both teams. Let’s take a look at the Cowboys vs. Lions DFS picks as we kick off Week 14!

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Lions DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 12/4

With both teams playing on Thursday in Week 13, this isn’t necessarily a “short week” for either squad. Both teams should be rested and we’ll have our eyes on the status of Amon-Ra St. Brown ahead of this game.

The Detroit Lions started the season 4-1 but have since lost four of their last seven games including both division matchups against the Green Bay Packers. Moreover, the Lions are 1-3 in four divisional games this season and they’ve lost the lead on the NFC North. The loss of Amon-Ra St. Brown is probably a bigger negative for the team than losing the division lead considering his presence gives them a greater chance of winning week in and week out.

The Dallas Cowboys come to town on a bit of a heater. Their win streak is only at three but they’ve coming off back-to-back wins against the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs. Is beating the two Super Bowl teams from a year ago within a span of five days a big deal? Sure seems like it to me!

The Bye week did wonders for the Cowboys, and truthfully, so did the NFL Trade Deadline. This win streak Dallas is on has come after the team’s Bye week which coincides with when they acquired Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson. Williams is obviously the player who has made the bigger impact. And while the defense isn’t perfect, it’s been better than what we watched from Weeks 1-9.

This game is both a playoff preview and a potential playoff eliminator as time is drawing short. There are plenty of fantasy-relevant players for this Showdown matchup so let’s take a look at the top plays, matchups, and lineup building strategies for our Cowboys vs. Lions DFS picks as we kick off Week 14!

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Lions TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Cowboys +3 (-108)
    • Lions -3 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Cowboys (+140)
    • Lions (-166)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 54.5 (-105)
    • Under 54.5 (-115)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread:
    • Cowboys +3 (-110)
    • Lions -3 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Cowboys (+138)
    • Lions (-164)
  • Game Total:
    • Over 54.5 (-105)
    • Under 54.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Cowboys vs. Lions TNF, December 4th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment so there are no weather concerns for our TNF DFS picks.

 

Cowboys vs. Lions Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 14

The Dallas Cowboys have already ruled out offensive tackle Tyler Guyton and defensive back Trevon Diggs. Jadeveon Clowney and Malik Hooker are also listed as questionable for the Dallas defense.

The Lions have ruled out a few more players than Dallas. The Lions will be without Kalif Raymond, Brock Wright, and Shane Zylstra on offense so that potentially opens up some value for the depth receivers and tight ends. The defense won’t have Kerby Joseph while Brian Branch is also questionable. The offense has some key pieces we’ll need to keep an eye on up to 90 minutes before kickoff. Both offensive tackles, Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker, are listed as questionable after being limited in practice this week.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the big name we’re monitoring. He hasn’t practiced all week after sustaining an ankle injury on Thanksgiving. It feels as if he’s more doubtful than questionable, but we’ll know for sure prior to kickoff.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $13,000

Jahmyr Gibbs is handling absurd volume of late. In five games since the team’s Bye week, he’s touched the ball 96 times including 31 receptions and six total touchdowns. On top of that, he’s collected three separate 100-yard bonuses: two for rushing and one for receiving.

Over the last three games Gibbs has handled 71.2% of the team’s rush attempts and he’s accounted for 72.5% of the team’s expected fantasy points. This week we kick off Week 14 for Gibbs with a matchup and a great game environment for him to potentially go for 35+ fantasy points for the fourth time in his last seven games.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys - DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $12,200

Dak has been nothing short of fantastic amidst this Dallas three-game winning streak. He’s thrown eight total touchdowns in this span with back-to-back passing bonuses on DraftKings and in all three performances he’s returned 24+ fantasy points on DraftKings.

He is the second-most expensive player on both sites and there might just be cheaper players with easier paths to ceiling performances. However, Dak comes with volume and lately opposing offenses haven’t had trouble generating production against the Lions.

Entering Week 14, Dak ranks 6th in EPA/Play (0.19) among qualified starting quarterbacks, 10th in success rate (49.3%), and 8th in completion percentage over expected (3.9%). Dak has really put the team on his back during this winning streak and if they can get their fourth straight win tonight then they’re really a team that nobody wants to face ahead of the playoffs in January.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $11,800

George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $10,600

Both Lamb and Pickens are definitely in play as Captains anytime the Cowboys are on a Showdown slate. Throw in a matchup against the Lions where there’s an implied total over 50 points? Yeah, now we’re cookin’ with gas.

Both Lamb and Pickens are coming off big games, but it was Lamb who found the end zone with 100+ receiving yards in Week 13. Pickens had a solid game on Thanksgiving to the tune of six receptions for 88 yards. But in Weeks 11 and 12 he went for 18 total receptions for 290 yards and a pair of touchdowns. In those two games he returned over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings.

You really can choose your own adventure with either player. But since Week 7, it’s clear these two can both operate as a WR1. As Dataroma pointed out earlier in the week, in their last six games Lamb is averaging a 25.9% target share, 2.56 YPRR, and 87 receiving yards per game. Pickens is averaging a 25.5% target share, 3.12 YPRR, and 102.8 receiving yards per game.

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $9,800

I want to preface Jamo’s write-up by saying that, if Amon-Ra St. Brown is active for this game, he’s obviously a good Captain play. We’ve seen the Lions on enough Showdown slates to know what kind of ceiling he has, and the volume he will command. Personally, I think the Lions would be better served letting him take the additional rest and sit him this week before bringing him back in Week 15.

But we got a good look at what Jameson Williams can do with an expanded role sans Amon-Ra St. Brown. Last Thursday on Thanksgiving, Williams exploded to the tune of seven receptions on 10 targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. This came just four days after he had zero receptions on three targets in an overtime win against the New York Giants.

That is kind of the variance we lean into with Williams. Since Week 5, he has three games with two or fewer fantasy points. But since the team’s Bye week he’s scored four times and posted 26+ fantasy points on DraftKings on two occasions.

If ARSB can’t go for this matchup that’s a huge upgrade for Williams. In Week 13 he was targeted on 33% of his routes and was the first read on 43.8% of Detroit’s passing plays according to Dataroma. Williams is a strong candidate for a monstrous game Thursday night and needs to be played in all kinds of formats considering how poorly this Dallas secondary defends opposing WR1’s.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $11,200

Goff is a good piece to have as a flex play in your NFL DFS Showdown lineups but it’s fairly clear that he doesn’t have the ceiling that other players have, and Goff will still cost you a pretty penny. Goff is a good player who will likely return 16-to-22 fantasy points most weeks. And that’s all fine and dandy but he probably just works better as a correlation piece with any Detroit pass catcher.

Goff still managed to complete 76.9% of his pass attempts without ARSB last week and he even registered a 24-yard run which we never see from Goff. He’s a great distributor of the ball and he feeds his favorite targets.

Goff isn’t very far behind Dak Prescott in EPA/Play (0.17) and he ranks top 10 among starting quarterbacks in success rate (50.2%), completion percentage over expected (3.2%), and turn-over worthy play rate (1.6%) according to Sam Hoppen. He’s a good, solid play that will definitely contribute to your lineup(s). But unless he’s throwing for five touchdowns like he did in Week 2 against the Bears, I lack the conviction to say he’s a good Captain candidate.

Isaac Teslaa, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $5,600

So over the last handful of Thursday and Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Showdown Playbooks, I’ve been trying something new and that’s including a value play in the Core Plays sections. It did pay off pretty well last Friday when we locked in Kyle Monangai as a core selection for the Black Friday NFL DFS picks. And I want to take a similar approach to this game because let’s be honest, if we’re trying to pay up for three players we’ve already discussed, then we need to find some value on this slate.

Teslaa offers salary relief, albeit, not as much as he did on previous slates. He’s now $4,400 on DraftKings after not eclipsing the $3K range in any other game this season. Teslaa only had two targets last week after ARSB got hurt, but that was against a more difficult secondary. And yet, Teslaa still ran 92% of the routes. Dallas has allowed two receivers to go for 45+ yards in six straight games and they’re allowing 34+ fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.

There is a cheaper Detroit receiver we’ll get to in the value plays section. But Teslaa didn’t get the volume the team probably wanted to get him last week and I’m expecting more involvement Thursday night if the Lions rest St. Brown.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

I’m not fading anyone entirely in this mid-tier but based on some of my early lineups builds, I’m not landing on many players in this section. I want to spend up for three studs and yes, that means I have to save salary so I’m not forcing any mid-range plays into my lineups and when I look at matchups and trends, I’m actually okay with that.

Javonte Williams could very well touch the ball 20+ times in this matchup, and the Lions have given up 126 rushing yards per game since their Bye week. But Javonte’s efficiency has dipped a little. In his first five games this year he averaged 5.66 yards per carry with six touchdowns in that span. But over his last five games he’s averaging just over 4.00 yards per carry, which is still fine, but he only has one touchdown in his last four games. In that span he’s averaging about a dozen fantasy points per game. I’m a bit hesitant to pay up for that production in this matchup but I cannot deny the volume he’ll likely get.

Pivoting to Jake Ferguson, we have a tight end who like all other tight ends, probably needs to find the end zone to be relevant. Since CeeDee Lamb returned from injury, we’ve seen Ferguson phased out a little bit, but he can still probably get five-to-seven targets in any given matchup. Since Week 7 he’s averaging just over 30 receiving yards per game. And even when Lamb was out, we leaned on six touchdowns in four games from Ferguson because you have to go back to Week 2 to find a performance where he returned over 70 receiving yards. It’s a tougher matchup for Fergy than Javonte, so I’m less inclined to play him.

And now we get to David Montgomery, who would have been easier to play if he was $5,500-$6,000 on DraftKings. But instead, he’s a flat $7K who might go out there and return 10-12 fantasy points for our lineups. And we just mentioned in Gibbs’ section that he’s commanding over 70% of the rush attempts and expected fantasy points of late. Monty has just 25 total touches in his last three games and he needed a touchdown last week to salvage his performance.

So it’s not that I’m avoiding these plays with intention. But when I look at the matchups and recent trends, I don’t think we need to force these plays into our builds if the projected production is relatively modest compared to other plays that are more expensive. I’m likely taking more of a starts & scrubs approach and mixing the values and kickers into my builds.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Ryan Flournoy, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $4,800

KaVontae Turpin, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $2,400 | FanDuel: $6,600

It’s crazy how Flournoy has surpassed Jalen Tolbert, but he plays hard and makes plays. Dallas is getting more comfortable with finding reps for him as well. He played 27 snaps on Thanksgiving which was third-most on the team. Volume might fluctuate but this is a better matchup for the wide receivers than the tight ends and running backs.

Turpin played 26 snaps last week and he’s registered multiple targets in five straight games. To go with those targets, Dallas has also drawn up five designed runs for Turpin over the last two weeks and he gets work as a kick returner. So if you’re not on board with playing the Cowboys D/ST, you can at least still get some exposure by paying down to their kick/punt returner.

Ross Dwelley, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $3,800

This is the part of the article where things get a bit ugly but so be it. If you want to take some shots and try to win big you can play Ross Dwelley or Anthony Firkser. The Lions won’t have Sam LaPorta nor will they have Brock Wright. And if they don’t have ARSB then there’s a little more value to the Detroit tight ends. But they aren’t locks.

Dwelley will likely get the start and see most of the snaps. But that was the case last week and he had just one catch. But if Andrew Cooper’s taught me anything about tight ends, it’s that you just want to identify the ones seeing the most snaps and routes. So while it’s ugly and I don’t have a strong lean towards either play, these are big targets for Goff to consider in the red zone. But if you want to save a little salary on a player who could see more targets, then consider the next guy.

Tom Kennedy, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $2,000 | FanDuel: $3,000

Kennedy is in play in St. Brown misses this game. Clearly all the pass catchers get a bit of a bump and if ARSB has to miss Week 14 then you have to imagine Kennedy has some semblance of a role. And with Kalif Raymond sidelined, that means Kennedy could get some return work on special teams.

Kennedy caught all four of his targets last week for 36 yards. Obviously this time around, there’s a bit of a price bump after he was the bare minimum Showdown price a week ago. But $2,000 is still a manageable price tag if he can once again get four or five targets in an up-tempo game. 

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Both offenses for our TNF DFS picks have implied team totals over 25 points. That has me a bit uneasy to play either D/ST and it’s certainly rare for both kickers to be more expensive than both D/ST’s. The Lions are averaging 1.5 fantasy points per game over the last four weeks. In that span they have just four sacks and one takeaway and they’ve given up 96 total points. Each of their last three opponents have rushed for 120+ yards against this defense.

The Cowboys defense is certainly better, but they may not be a good defense for fantasy football. But since acquiring Quinnen Williams, this defense is only giving up about 70 rushing yards per game and they’ve given up a total of 65 points. Alas, the matchup is far from ideal. Even without Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions still put up 24 points and 352 yards of offense against a very good Packers defense. The Lions are favored by three points giving them an implied total over 28 points. Showdown slates are incredibly tricky with D/ST’s, and this slate is no different. I’m not inclined to play to play either all that much.

With elevated implied totals on both sides, most DFS players will naturally be drawn to the kickers on this slate, but both kickers are $1,000+ more expensive on DraftKings than the D/ST’s. Brandon Aubrey is one of the best kickers in the NFL and he can certainly find himself in a spot where he’s attempting multiple field goals from range. However, with so many Captain options on the board for our Cowboys vs. Lions DFS picks, Aubrey works as a flex option in any build.

Jake Bates is a similar play, but he gets downgraded slightly because the Lions are so efficient and quick to score touchdowns when they get inside the red zone. That’s why Bates is a better floor play than ceiling option. In 8-of-12 games this season he’s only made one field goal, which isn’t too bizarre. But he’s attempted 42 extra points compared to 20 field goal attempts. That speaks to how good the Lions are at scoring touchdowns.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Lions DFS Player Pool: TNF, 12/4

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