The NFL Divisional Round is here, and the slate is loaded with high-stakes matchups. We have the Buffalo Bills visiting the Denver Broncos, the San Francisco 49ers heading to Seattle, the Houston Texans taking on the New England Patriots, and the Los Angeles Rams battling the Chicago Bears at a frozen Soldier Field.

Using the latest news, weather updates and data, I’ve broken down the quarterback tier for this weekend’s DraftKings and FanDuel slates.

NFL DFS NFL Divisional Round QB Coach: Top DraftKings and FanDuel Picks

Top Picks

Josh Allen (BUF) @ DEN 

Josh Allen enters the Divisional Round as the premier ceiling play on the slate despite a tough on-paper matchup. While the Broncos possess a formidable unit that finished the season ranked fifth in Defensive DVOA, Allen’s dual-threat capability renders him largely matchup-proof. He faces a Denver defense in clear conditions where his production remains insulated by his rushing ability. With the Bills boasting the fourth-ranked offense in DVOA, Allen’s volume in a high-stakes road game makes him a foundational piece for any lineup.

Matthew Stafford (LAR) @ CHI

Matthew Stafford heads into a frozen matchup at Soldier Field against a Bears defense that is mediocre at best. Chicago finished the season ranked 24th in Defensive DVOA which suggests the Rams' top-ranked offense can move the ball at will. Stafford is piloting the league's most efficient passing attack and faces a massive statistical advantage despite the potential for wind and cold. If the Rams adapt to the elements, Stafford faces little resistance from a secondary that has struggled to contain elite passing games.

Mid Tier

Drake Maye (NE) vs. HOU 

Drake Maye is a savvy mid-tier target despite facing a daunting defense on paper. The Texans feature an elite unit that is ranked second in Defensive DVOA, but Maye has guided the Patriots to the third-ranked offense in DVOA this season. Playing at home in Foxborough offers him significant upside relative to his affordable price point. His efficiency and the Patriots' high-ranking offensive system give him a stable floor even against a top-tier pass defense.

Bo Nix (DEN) vs. BUF 

Bo Nix finds himself in a strong spot against a Buffalo team that has struggled defensively. The Bills finished the regular season with a suspect defense that ranks 21st in Defensive DVOA. This presents a clear path for Nix to generate fantasy points through the air in a home playoff environment. With the Broncos playing in Denver and the Bills showing vulnerability, Nix projects for solid passing volume against a unit that is far from a shutdown defense.

Value Tier

Sam Darnold (SEA) vs. SF 

Sam Darnold stands out as the best stats-based value on the board this weekend. He leads a Seattle offense that ranks 10th in DVOA against a San Francisco defense that has plummeted to 26th in Defensive DVOA. The 49ers' secondary has been susceptible to big plays and metrics suggest they are one of the weakest defensive units remaining in the playoffs. With the Seahawks at home and Darnold priced down, this is a prime spot for production against a defense that bleeds efficiency.

Fade

C.J. Stroud (HOU) @ NE 

Fantasy managers should look to fade C.J. Stroud in this specific spot. While the Patriots' defense was middling with a 20th rank in DVOA during the regular season they shut down the Chargers in their Wild Card victory. Stroud’s situation is not any easier due to the loss of top weapon Nico Collins. The Texans' own offense has struggled down the stretch as they enter the game ranked just 19th in Offensive DVOA. Facing a playoff road environment without his WR1 limits his ceiling significantly compared to other options with higher team totals.