Merry Christmas, DFS players. We have a fascinating three-game slate that is defined more by who is missing than who is playing. With stars like Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy sidelined, we are looking at a slate filled with backup quarterbacks and deep-roster value plays.

This volatility opens up massive edges if we attack the right matchups. The key today is paying up for the few reliable signal-callers available and knowing exactly which "punt" options to avoid at all costs.

Here is the breakdown for the 2025 Christmas Day slate.

 

Top Plays

Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. Washington Commanders

Dak is the undisputed QB1 on this slate, and it isn’t particularly close. While the Cowboys have had a rollercoaster season, Prescott has remained a fantasy force. This is especially true with the lethal duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens at his disposal.

He faces a Washington Commanders defense that has been a sieve all year. The Commanders are essentially playing out the string with Josh Johnson under center. This likely means short drives for Washington and excellent field position for Dallas. The Commanders’ secondary struggles to limit explosive plays, and with Dallas comfortable in high-scoring affairs, Dak has the highest floor and ceiling on the board. Don't overthink this: lock him in.

Bo Nix (DEN) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos have been the surprise juggernaut of 2025, winning 11 straight games prior to last week's stumble, and Bo Nix has been the catalyst. He gets a dream scenario today against a Chiefs team that is completely decimated by injuries and officially eliminated from playoff contention.

Kansas City is trotting out a third-string quarterback and a defense that has been on the field too much lately. Nix has shown excellent command of Sean Payton's offense, limiting turnovers while utilizing his legs for added floor. Against a demoralized Chiefs squad looking ahead to the offseason, expect Nix to be efficient and productive. He is a safe pivot from Dak if you need the salary savings.

 

Mid-Tier

Jared Goff (DET) vs. Minnesota Vikings

This is the game with the most legitimate playoff stakes. The Lions are fighting for their postseason lives and need to win out, meaning we will get the best version of Jared Goff. While playing indoors at U.S. Bank Stadium is usually tough, the Vikings are dealing with their own offensive crisis that could put their defense in bad spots.

Goff has been steady, if unspectacular, but the volume will be there. The Vikings' defense can be aggressive, but that aggression often opens up lanes for intermediate throws to Amon-Ra St. Brown. Goff doesn't have the rushing upside of the other top QBs, but in a game Detroit must have, he is a solid bet for 250+ yards and 2 touchdowns.

Value Tier

Josh Johnson (WAS) vs. Dallas Cowboys

If you are looking for a pure punt to jam in studs at RB and WR, Josh Johnson is the only viable option. However, you should proceed with caution. The 39-year-old journeyman is making his first start since 2021 due to injuries to Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota.

The argument for him is simple: volume and game script. Washington will likely be trailing big, forcing Johnson to throw often against a Dallas defense that plays soft coverage with a lead. Johnson has rushing ability, even at his age, which provides a cheat code for DFS scoring. If he can stumble into a rushing touchdown and 200 yards passing in garbage time, he hits 4x value at his minimum price tag.

 

Fades

Max Brosmer (MIN) vs. Detroit Lions

Do not get cute here. Brosmer, the rookie UDFA, looked completely overwhelmed in his first start when he threw four interceptions against Seattle. The jump from the college level to the NFL is massive, and he is clearly not ready for this speed.

He faces a Detroit Lions defense that is hungry and playing for a playoff spot. They will dial up pressure packages that Brosmer hasn't seen on tape. The Vikings will likely try to hide him with a run-heavy approach, capping his volume. Even at a rock-bottom price, the risk of negative points is too high.

Chris Oladokun (KC) vs. Denver Broncos

With Mahomes and Minshew both out with knee injuries, Chris Oladokun gets the nod for an eliminated Chiefs team. This is a recipe for disaster. He faces a Broncos defense that has been one of the league's best units during their 11-game win streak.

Denver still has seeding to play for and will show no mercy. Oladokun is a third-stringer with limited reps facing a complex, aggressive defensive scheme in a primetime slot. The turnover potential is massive, and the Chiefs' offense lacks the firepower to bail him out. Fade him completely.

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