Pro Bowl Backs…

It’s that time of year again, where we complain about something as stupid the Pro Bowl. I’ll talk about it here, for reasons of conceptualizing a season that was at the running back position, but I have to be honest that I laugh over all of the twitter outrage. Why do people get so worked up about a game that the players don’t want to play and a selection process that is determined by a fan vote and nothing more? In any event, here are my thoughts...

AFC Running Back Roster: James Conner , Melvin Gordon , and Phillip Lindsay

I honestly think that they got the best three in from a very week stable of AFC running backs. Conner stepped right into the hole that Le’Veon Bell left and arguably has done a better job than Bell ever has. Even while having missed two games, Conner has racked up over 900 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry, has racked up nearly 500 receiving yards on an impressive 52 catches, and has scored 13 total touchdowns.

This season, Melvin Gordon has been the best running back in the AFC. He boasts a nearly unstoppable dual-threat skill set and is currently the seventh leading fantasy back, despite missing four games this season.

Phillip Lindsay rounds out the list and in the process, becomes the first ever undrafted rookie to make the Pro Bowl. This was not a sympathy vote however, as Lindsay has been killing the game all season long. As it stands today, Lindsay is currently the fifth leading rusher in the NFL with just nine yards short of 1,000. He’s scored 10 total touchdowns and is potentially on pace to finish with one of the best single-season yards per carry numbers in the history of the league, at nearly 6.0 ypc. He’s done all of this while having to leap several guys on the depth chart, including Royce Freeman , who was a highly touted rookie in his own right, but is now nearly invisible due to Lindsay’s emergence. This was truly a rookie season for the ages.

(AFC) You could make the argument for…

Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb are the only other two guys I would go to bat for in the AFC, but as I said above, I think that the voters actually got it right.

The case for Mixon is simple. He’s a top-10 fantasy scorer, is fourth in the league in rushing yards, and has nine total touchdowns on a really bad team. If his team wasn’t constantly playing from behind, the Mixon production could be even greater, which is scary to think about.

The case for Chubb would be that over the second half of the season, he has been one of the top-three backs in football. Even with nearly half of his games wasted, Chubb is still on pace to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards, while he has scored in six of his eight starts. In one of the games that he was still wasting on the bench, Chubb still took a mere three carries for 105 yards and two touchdowns. His argument falls short due to lack of time on the field overall this season, be he would be far from the first guy to make this team with an electric finish to the season.

NFC Running Back Roster: Todd Gurley , Saquon Barkley , and Ezekiel Elliott

Contrary to the AFC, the NFC running back stable is loaded. With that being said, I also think that the voters got this right for the most part. Look, when there are so many talented backs in one conference, feelings are certainly going to get hurt. Ultimately, what these three backs give you is explosiveness, star power, and production. Simple as that. Here are their resumes…

Todd Gurley – from wire-to-wire this season, has been the most productive back in the game. Right now he is leading all players in fantasy points, total touchdowns, and rushing touchdowns. He’s also the focal point of one of the best offenses in the game, and at one point was on pace for the greatest fantasy season of all time. There is an easy argument to be made that he is the best back in football right now.

A rookie, but playing nothing like it, Saquon Barkley has been as good as advertised this season. Putting stats aside, each Sunday, Barkley proves why the Giants threw caution into the wind and passed up several potential franchise quarterbacks with the number two overall pick. I have no problem saying that right now, he’s not only the most explosive player on the Giants roster – yes, looking at you Odell – but also the most explosive player in the NFL. Looking at the numbers now, Barkley is third in rushing yards, third in fantasy points, second in receptions at the position, first in 20+ yard runs, and has nearly double the amount of 40+ yard rushes than anyone else in the NFL. He’s racked up 13 touchdowns this season and managed to do it on an absolutely horrendous Giants team, while running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football. The sky is the limit for this kid.

And then there is Ezekiel Elliott … He’s leading the league in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing yards per game, all-purpose yards, and total yards per game. Zeke’s also added another wrinkle into his game this season, as he has become one of the best pass catching backs in football. Elliott is currently fourth in the league in receptions at the running back position with 72, while he has amassed over 500 yards and three touchdowns as a receiver. Another interesting stat that I read was on twitter from Taylor Bisciotti of the NFL Network… She mentions that Zeke is on pace to become the fourth player in history to lead the league in rushing yards per game for three consecutive seasons. The other three? Earl Campbell, Eric Dickerson, and Jim Brown. Hall of Fame company.

(NFC) You could make the argument for…

There were a host of guys on this list, but I dwindled it down for the sake of my reputation as a hard-nosed running back evaluator. I’ll leave you with two, Christian McCaffrey – the biggest Pro Bowl snub of the year (Okay, Darius Leonard too)  – and Alvin Kamara .

My case for McCaffery is that if he played in the AFC, he probably would have been the the leading vote getter. He’s the second leading fantasy back this season, Is set to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards next week, is averaging over 5.0 yards per carry, has scored 13 total touchdowns, and has scored less than 25 fantasy points just once since Halloween. He also is leading all running backs in receptions and is likely going to set a new single-season NFL record for the position.

A lot of the things I said about McCaffrey are also true about Kamara, but just to a lesser extent. He’s one of the best receiving backs in football and would also have easily walked onto the AFC roster if eligible. He’s fourth in fantasy scoring, fourth in receptions, and second in touchdowns. He’s also just 13 yards away from 1,500 all-purpose yards. This was all accomplished while playing in a near even split with Mark Ingram out of the Saints backfield.

Final Points:

Ultimately, I think that despite all of the outrage on twitter (what else is new?), the “uneducated” voting masses actually got it right – at least at the running back position (I would still love for someone to explain to me how Darius Leonard missed the cut). We all need to stop treating the Pro Bowl like it is anything of real importance, because at the end of the day, none of the guys who you voted for are going to be playing in the damned thing anyway. Once the All-Pro teams are announced however, it’ll be open season for me and my twitter fingers!

Week 15 Recap

While many fantasy experts will tell you differently, Week 15 was actually a rather robust one at the running back position. We had three backs score over 30 points – led by Todd Gurley ; no surprise there. The other two were kind of surprising – Damien Williams and Derrick Henry . Williams filled in for Spencer Ware , who was filling in for Kareem Hunt and managed to find the end zone twice on just 16 carries. While he wasn’t exactly trusted to carry the ball often for some reason, most of his damage was done through the passing game, as he hauled in six passes for 74 yards. Derrick Henry was kind of surprising because there was little hope that he would repeat his monstrous success from just a week prior. Instead he walloped the Giants, while on the road mind you, to the tune of 170 yards and two touchdowns on a whopping 33 carries.

After these three elite performances, seven other backs eclipsed the 20-point barrier. The usual suspects were up there, including Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey , however it was a breath of fresh air to see Dalvin Cook and Tevin Coleman back in the mix as well. Cook, with his 29.3 points, eclipsed the 20-point barrier for the first time since September of 2017, while Coleman’s 20.5 points gave him his first game over 12 points since Halloween. Chris Carson and Marlon Mack also were both over 20 this week. Carson’s methodical 119 yards just further solidified his “lead back” moniker on the top rushing attack in the game, while Mack’s consistent tackle-shedding against a good Cowboys rush defense opened eyes of fantasy owners everywhere. Carson will be incredibly chalky this upcoming week against a bad Chiefs rush defense, while Mack should be in consideration once again at home against a eliminated Giants team.

The best of the rest include backs who impressed but didn’t manage to eclipse the 20-point mark… Leading off this list is Kalen Ballage , who in a shocking turn of events, managed to seize the lead back gig for Miami when Frank Gore went down with a season-ending foot injury. The seemingly rightful assumption was that Kenyan Drake would take over, however Ballage stepped in and didn’t give an inch. In his emergency work, Ballage racked up an impressive 123 rushing yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries. I would like to take a second here and pat myself on the back for knowing that Ballage would eventually breakout. I talked about him several times on the Fantasy Alarm Podcast with Brett Talley, leading up to the season and during the NFL draft. I love this kid’s talent, but just never knew when his chance would come while buried on the Dolphins RB depth chart. Apparently the Dolphins coaching staff finally wised up and maybe now they realize that he’s a better back than ancient Frank Gore and overrated Kenyan Drake .

Other names include Zach Zenner , Jaylen Samuels , and Jamaal Williams . Zenner has now scored in back-to-back weeks and has emerged as the lead back for Detroit in the wake of the Kerryon Johnson injury. Samuels has gone on to further prove the greatness of this Steelers backfield machine, while potentially further devaluing Le’Veon Bell’s future free agent contract in the process. And Jamaal Williams has now stepped into a scenario that he struggled with at the beginning of the season – being the lead back. With Aaron Jones ruled out, Williams will have every opportunity to produce at a high level going forward. He previously had disappointed, however in Week 15 he did a fine job, scoring nearly 20 points on 16 touches.

Who I Like in DFS This Week

I’m not alone amongst the host of fantasy analysts that took a beating in the running back department last week. Here’s what I will say though, as it pertains to my DFS picks in Week 15… I hit on McCaffrey, I hit on Mixon, and I hit on Justin Jackson . Saquon Barkley , Leonard Fournette , Darren Sproles , and Phillip Lindsay can burn in hell for all I care!

Just kidding, obviously… Here are my picks for Week 16.

Locks of the Week

Ezekiel Elliott vs. TB ($9,000)

The best running back in football (league leader in rushing yards, rushing attempts, yards per game, all-purpose yards, etc.) will be taking on the worst rush defense in football (Pro Football Focus). He’s at home and he’s not even the most expensive back on the slate. This one makes way too much sense, so I’m not going to overthink it.

Christian McCaffrey vs. ATL ($8,800)

Has been incredibly consistent this season and his diverse skill-set makes him pretty much matchup proof. Luckily, McCaffrey doesn’t have to think about that this week because the Falcons are terrible against running backs. They are the worst in the league against receiving running backs and boast the seventh worst rush defense according to Pro Football Focus. He’s a lock in cash or GPP’s. Plus, you save a few hundred bucks from the other elite backs.

I’m Keen on…

Nick Chubb vs. CIN ($7,300)

Chubb is one of the top-ranked backs in the game according to PFF and he has reciprocated in fantasy scoring. This week he gets the Bengals who have allowed the fourth most rushing yards in the league this season, while his surging Browns are welcomed back home, still with their playoff hopes alive. At well under $8,000 I believe he will be a steal with top-five scorers potential.

Joe Mixon @ CLE ($7,100)

As I said last week, Mixon has been performing well of late, even without many opportunities while playing for a bad team. In Week 15 I predicted that he would get more touches and the fantasy owners would reap the benefits. I was correct on both accounts. This week, he gets the Browns – the fourth worst rush defense and absolute worst tackling defense in the league, according to PFF. He’s in great form, having an underratedly good season, and is underpriced this week. Play a lot of him.

Chris Carson vs. KC ($5,800)

First of all, how does an unquestionable starting back coming off of a 119 yard performance get priced under $6,000 in any week? Regardless of opponent, Carson is underpriced. This week in particular however, Carson should be a special steal, considering he’s taking on the Chiefs and their second-to-last ranked rush defense, according to Pro Football Focus. He’s also at home and the Chiefs have been rumored to be weighing the idea of resting Patrick Mahomes . That’s not confirmed, but if it happens, Carson could be in for an even bigger day.  

Flex Flyers

John Kelly @ ARZ ($4,000)

I mention Kelly only if Todd Gurley is rested. Kelly is an incredibly talented back who spent his college days often out-dueling Alvin Kamara while at Tennessee. This week, he could be in line to see a majority share of the carries against a Arizona defense that is allowing the third most rushing yards per game on average. Keep an eye on Gurley’s status before using Kelly.

Kalen Ballage vs. JAX ($3,700)

As I said in the previous segment, Ballage is my boy. He had phenomenal college tape and statistics (scored eight touchdowns in a game once!) and showcased his potential last week, when finally given the opportunity. This week, he should be the lead back for Miami, and while the Jags still offer a talented defense, they are still only two weeks removed from allowing Derrick Henry to embarrass them on prime time television. Ballage may be the plug-and-play flex of the week for me.