Week 12 Recap

In comparison to other weeks, Week 12 was one of above-average balance at the running back position. By that I mean that while it wasn’t one loaded with several 30+ point scorers, as has been the case in weeks past, it was one that had one 30+ point scorer (Saquon Barkley ), a stunning 40+ point outburst from Christian McCaffrey , and a whopping 10 backs eclipse the 20 point mark.

Of this rather dense top quadrant of the running back position in Week 12, a few surprising names jump off the ledger. First and foremost is LeGarrette Blount (a guy who I tipped you off to in last week’s edition, thank you very much), who’s 23.3 points in the stead of Kerryon Johnson were the most he has scored since the winter of 2016. Also notable were the names of Austin Ekeler and Sony Michel . Ekeler’s 26.3 points made some sense considering the health situation of Melvin Gordon , while Michel’s 22.5 also made sense because of his own recent bill of good health. What I will say further about the rookie Michel is that this was surprisingly the first week since Week 6 that he broke the 20 point barrier. He was a welcomed revival for many fantasy owners making a playoff push... The last name in this section that I want to make note of is Lamar Miller , who while paid like a feature back, has yet to live up to his billing over the span of his lucrative contract with the Texans. Monday night may have been his best showing in his Houston career, as he needed only 12 carries to rack up an insane 23.7 fantasy points. Hopefully this is a game that he can build upon going forward.

For those that didn’t eclipse the 20 point barrier but still had a good game, I want to give a shoutout to both Matt Breida and Gus Edwards – both of whom I mentioned in last week’s DFS corner of the article (pats self on back). While neither managed to get over the 20 point mark, both also put on stellar performances to the tune of 100+ rushing yards. Unfortunately, neither managed to get into the end zone, which hamstrung their potentially elite fantasy days. Keep in mind that both are still undervalued in DFS, despite the fact that Breida has cemented a firm grip on the lead back duties in San Fran, and that this was the second week in a row that Edwards eclipsed the 100+ yard barrier. Always remember to exploit the pricing discrepancy in DFS.   

Backfield State of the Union: 3rd Quarter

We are already three quarters of the way through this NFL season. Would you believe it? Time really does fly.

As I have been doing all year long after each quarter of the NFL season, this week I will provide you a state of the union of sorts for the running back position – specifically through a fantasy lens.

Last time we went over this, Todd Gurley was lapping the field in nearly every running back category. He was winning the RB triple crown (yards, carries, and touchdowns), en route to one of the best fantasy seasons of all time. Since however, things have slowed down for the Rams back, as a few other runners have caught up to him in a handful of categories…

– With the title changing hands just last week, Ezekiel Elliott is now the leader in the clubhouse in terms of carries this season with 217. Todd Gurley is just behind him now with 210, while James Conner is way back in third place with 186.

– In terms of rushing yards, Zeke has also taken the lead crown with 1,074. Todd Gurley is again right on his heels however with 1,043 yards. The two have traded the rushing title all season long, as Zeke led after the first quarter of the season and Gurley led after the halfway point. Way behind in third place is James Conner who has 849 yards.

– One category that Gurley still leads in is touchdowns, however his lead has slipped considerably. Gurley has 13 rushing touchdowns, while Alvin Kamara ’s 11 and James Conner ’s 10 are right on his tail. This race will get even closer if Gurley is rested down the stretch in preparation for the playoffs.

– In terms of yards per carry, the top of that list remains unchanged from four weeks ago. Packers running back Aaron Jones still leads with a whopping 6.0 yards per attempt. In second place we have a tie between Niners back Matt Breida and Broncos Philip Lindsay. Both are averaging 5.8 YPC.

– In the receiving department, that once historic pace has slowed down considerably. Not to say that there aren’t backs having great PPR seasons, but at one point there were nearly a dozen running backs on pace to break Matt Forte ’s single-season receptions record for the position. As it stands now, there is not one back on pace to break the 102 receptions mark, while both Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley come the closest with a pace for 95 catches this season. Currently they both sit with 71 receptions so far.

– Through the halfway point of the season, I had also mentioned that James White was on pace to shatter the single-season touchdown receptions record for running backs, as he was set to catch 12 TD’s. The record is currently held by a few backs with nine. At this current juncture, White has fallen off pace and is looking like he is not going to break the record, however he only needs four more to do it. Having said that, with his seven touchdown receptions so far this season, Kareem Hunt is now the only back in the league on pace to break the running back record of nine touchdown catches in a single season. This one could come down to the wire folks.

Who I Like in DFS This Week

Week 12 was one of my best weeks of the season. Of the 10 recommended plays, nine of them finished with at least 10 points, eight of them within the top-20 scorers at the position, six with at least 20 points, five within the top-10 at the position for the week, four had at least 100 rushing yards, three within the top-seven, two within the top-three, and only one finished outside of the top-30. From 10 picks, you got 10 total touchdowns. That’s excellent value. I do feel bad for not clueing you into Christian McCaffrey who broke the ever-elusive 40 point barrier, but otherwise the Week 12 resume I put together speaks for itself.

Now, onto Week 13…

Locks of the Week

Christian McCaffrey @ TB ($8,800 on DraftKings)

This guy scored over 50 points on DK last week! That alone makes him a lock for Week 13, however add into the fact that he’s taking on Pro Football Focus’ last ranked rush defense and we’ve got ourselves a home run play in McCaffrey this week. I know the price is steep, but as he has proved time and again this season, he can go off on any given Sunday. Right now he’s posting Marshall Faulk numbers and he’s not showing any signs of slowing down.

Kareem Hunt vs. OAK ($7,800 on DraftKings)

This one didn’t exactly feel like a lock, however I do like a lot of things about Hunt this week. First and foremost, he’s in the league’s best offense and is taking on one of the worst teams in the league, at home. The Chiefs should be ahead early and Hunt should get a heavy dose of action. Considering his elite talent and favorable matchup/situation, how Hunt is priced under $8,000 this week is a mystery to me. At this price point, I’m gonna consider Hunt a lock of the week.

 *** UPDATE **** 

For obvious reasons, consider Hunt redacted from this article. For those who read about the incident or saw the video, not much more needs to be said. For those who didn't, understand that domestic violence is the NFL's biggest problem right now and it's not even close. Not kneeling, concussions, or the President's tweets, but domestic violence. Something needs to be done. 

I’m Keen on…

Phillip Lindsay @ CIN ($5,400 on DraftKings)

The Bengals have the league’s worst pass defense, the league’s worst rush defense, and the league’s worst total defense. Philip Lindsay is averaging nearly 6.0 yards per carry. He’s somehow only $5,400 on DraftKings this week. This is a clear mispricing. Next.

Aaron Jones vs. ARI ($6,700 on DraftKings)

Jones is a little expensive this week, but the Packers are double-digit home favorites against a bottom-five rush defense. On the season he’s averaging a whopping 6.0 yards per carry. You do the math…

Lamar Miller vs. CLE ($4,600 on DraftKings)

Miller may have a little inflated ownership this week because of his breakout game and 97-yard touchdown in Week 12, but even if that didn’t happen I would still be on him. According to Pro Football Focus, the Browns are the league’s third worst rush defense and the worst tackling defense in football. Miller on the other hand has tallied over 100 total yards in three of the last four weeks, while the Texans are winners of eight in a row. I like them again this week, at home, while Miller should remain the focal point of the Texans offensive attack. $4,600 is more than a fair price.

Flex Flyers

Ty Montgomery @ ATL ($3,600 on DraftKings)

Don’t look now, but Ty Montgomery is quickly becoming a bigger part in this Ravens offense. While Gus Edwards has established himself as the 100+ yard downhill guy in this offense, Montgomery did a great job last week serving as the receiving option and change of pace player. I know it’s not ideal to pick backs on the road, but keep in mind that the Ravens are actually favored in this one. This season, Atlanta is offering the league’s fourth worst rush defense according to Pro Football Focus, while they are also worst in the league against receiving running backs. So far this season, the Falcons have allowed 96 receptions for 835 yards and five touchdowns to opposing running backs. Yikes! Monty is certainly worth a dart throw at near minimum price this week.

Doug Martin @ KC ($4,200 on DraftKings)

It is never en vogue to pick a Raiders player on DraftKings, however hear me out… Over his last five games, Doug Martin has averaged 4.8 yards per carry and has gotten at least 10 carries in each. This week, he will play the Chiefs – albeit on the road – who currently boast the second worst rush defense in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus. Provided the Raiders can keep this one within 20 points for most of the day, Martin will get enough looks to make it worthwhile for GPP players. $4,200 is a nice price for Martin in the flex.

Non-Main Slate Plays

Ezekiel Elliott vs. NO ($8,000 on DraftKings)

Zeke is probably the best play in the non-main slate. Sure he’s taking on the best rush defense in the NFL, but considering his current form, I’m not sure that even matters. Right now he’s leading the league in carries and rushing yards, while ever-so quietly he’s also crept up the receptions list amongst running backs, as he’s now eighth in the league with 47 receptions. Even if the Cowboys get blown out on Thursday night, Zeke will be heavily involved some way or another. His floor is high and his ceiling is higher than anyone not playing on Sunday from 1:00-7:30 pm EST.

Josh Adams vs. WAS ($4,700 on DraftKings)

I’ve been on Adams for a few weeks now and he has paid off. In the non-main slate contests, you will need to pivot plenty, however this is a spot where that is not necessary. The Redskins are reeling after losing half of their offensive roster to injury, while the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives. They seem to have found something in Adams; a legitimate ground game that will take some pressure off of Carson Wentz . At $4,700 this week, he is still underpriced.

Justin Jackson @ PIT ($3,600 on DraftKings)

In the event that Melvin Gordon isn’t playing – which is a foregone conclusion at this point – Austin Ekeler is going to get the start. While that inflates his value in DFS, lets not pretend that this job will remain wholly his going forward. If the Chargers weren’t comfortable with Melvin Gordon handling the entire workload, there is little chance that they will allow Austin Ekeler to do so either. Enter Justin Jackson , who last week – in limited action mind you – managed 57 yards on just seven carries. In these non-main slate contests, you have to get creative and Jackson is a nice way to do so. He will save you money at $3,600 and may even get the nod around the goal line in the absence of Melvin Gordon . He’s by no means a lock, but he has plenty of dart throw value.