The Denver Broncos supplemented their backfield after signing running back J.K. Dobbins to a one-year deal for $5.25 million with a $2.745 million value base and as much as $2.5 million in possible incentives tied into scrimmage yards. 

Off a healthy 2024 campaign with the Los Angeles Chargers, during which he was in the Comeback Player of the Year conversation, Dobbins reports to a Denver backfield led by rookie RJ Harvey. 

The Broncos, coached by head coach Sean Payton, are hoping to gain stronger ground in the run game in 2025, and bringing aboard Dobbins provides them with a veteran presence. Here we analyze his statistical career, history of injuries, depth chart of the Broncos, and a balanced fantasy football prediction for the upcoming season.

 

J.K. Dobbins Stats

J.K. Dobbins has been efficient as a passer and receiver when he's on the field, but his career has been hampered by injuries. Below is the rundown of his NFL career according to the statistics presented:

  • 2020 (Rookie, BAL, Age 22): 15 games (1 start), for 805 yards on 134 carries (6.0 Y/A) with 9 touchdowns. Caught 18 of 24 pass attempts for 120 yards (75% catch rate). Accumulated 925 yards from scrimmage, averaging 6.1 per touch with a 56.7% rush success percentage and a 72-yard long rush. Averaged 8.9 attempts per game, contributing 7 AV.
  • 2022 (BAL, Age 24): Played in just 8 games (8 starts), running for 520 yards on 92 attempts (5.7 Y/A) with 2 TDs. Caught 7 passes on 8 targets for 42 yards and 1 TD. Recorded 562 yards of scrimmage, averaging 5.7 per rush attempt and a 57.6% rush success rate. Averaged 11.5 attempts per game, adding up to 4 AV.
  • 2023 (BAL, Age 25): Appeared in 1 game prior to suffering a season-ending Achilles injury, rushing on 8 carries-22 yards (2.8 Y/A) with 1 TD. Caught 15 receiving yards on 2 of 3 targets. Had 37 scrimmage yards with a 50% rush success rate.
  • 2024 (LAC, Age 26): 13 games (11 starts), 905 yards on 195 carries (4.6 Y/A) with 9 touchdowns. Caught 32 of 38 for 153 yards (84.2% reception rate). Gained 1,058 scrimmage yards, 4.7 yards per touch average with a 42.6% rate and a 61-yard longest run. Had 15 carries and 2.5 receptions per game average, contributing 7 AV.

Dobbins' 2024 campaign was a career-best 1,058 scrimmage yards, demonstrating that he could carry an acceptable load and contribute some through the pass. His 4.6 Y/A was decent but a notch below his previous efficiency.

 

J.K. Dobbins Injury History

The durability of Dobbins is a serious concern for fantasy owners. His injury history is as follows:

  • 2021: Missed entire season (17 games) due to preseason torn ACL.
  • 2022: Missed 9 games because of knee problems and subsequent procedure.
  • 2023: Missed 16 games following a Week 1 torn Achilles.
  • 2024: Missed 4 games as a result of MCL sprain but played in 13 games total.

Dobbins has played only 37 of 83 available games (44.6%) since 2020, sitting out 46 because of injuries. Though 2024 was better, one must question whether or not he can remain healthy for a year.

 

Denver Broncos Depth Chart

The Denver Broncos' depth chart at running back for 2025 includes:

As Javonte Williams is in Dallas, rookie RJ Harvey is the defacto starter, but Dobbins' experience puts him in line for a big role, most likely sharing carries. 

Harvey will occupy a do-it-all, three-down role in Sean Payton's offense, and Dobbins can concentrate on early-down work. McLaughlin and Estime will fight for passing-down and short-yardage duty, and it looks like a committee situation.

 

J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Football Outlook

J.K. Dobbins' signing with the Denver Broncos is a fantasy football prospect to include on the list, but expectations must be tempered based on his injury history and probable committee situation. 

This is a reasonable expectation for 2025:

Dobbins is in a Broncos offense that will look to improve upon a 2024 playoff run, with returning offense line that should be solid run-blocking. 

His 2024 work (1,058 scrimmage yards, 9 TDs) indicates that he will be productive when on the field, and his pass-catching skills (32 receptions in 2024) are suited to Sean Payton's system, which frequently features backs as receivers. 

As a change of pace to rookie RJ Harvey, Dobbins might get 10-12 carries and 2-3 catches per contest, for 700-900 scrimmage yards and 5-7 scores if on the field 14-15 times. His $5.25 million incentive-driven deal reflects a key role, possibly 1B to Harvey's 1A.

Dobbins' injury history is a significant concern, missing more than half his career games. The Broncos backfield committee of Harvey, Estime, and McLaughlin could keep Dobbins below 200 touches, limiting his fantasy ceiling.

Payton's habit of inexplicably rotating backs, such as in 2024 when four backs contributed a total of just 902 rushing yards, makes one wonder. 

Estime's goal-line back designation could reduce Dobbins' touchdown chances, and Denver's offense could end up liking a pass-happy attack by Bo Nix more than running the ball. Challenging early-season tests for the Broncos also could make slow starts more likely.

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