UPDATED: Friday, Feb. 7 at 12:30pm ET

Super Bowl 59 is here and it’s time to take one last shot at greatness in our NFL best bets. The Kansas City Chiefs are seeking an unheard-of championship threepeat, while the Philadelphia Eagles, who are not only looking for their second title in eight years but are also looking to avenge a Super Bowl loss from two years ago. This is going to be one heck of a game.

 

 

 

Last year, over $19 billion was put in-play for Super Bowl bets and projections from across the industry are expecting even more this year. Whether you are betting with one of the books or doing Pick ‘Em contests on Underdog or PrizePicks, there is going to be a ton of action available. You can bet against the spread, you can choose from an unlimited number of game and player props, and you can also bet a number of novelty items as well.

You want to bet on how many touchdown passes Patrick Mahomes throws or how many rushing yards Saquon Barkley picks up? Do you want to bet on how long it will take Jon Batiste to get through the National Anthem or how many times the camera pans to Taylor Swift’s celebrity skybox? No problem.

You can even bet what color the Gatorade will be that gets poured over the head of the winning coach. It is the ultimate football betting bonanza, and we’ve got everything you need to cash your Super Bowl best bets right here on Fantasy Alarm.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Super Bowl Sunday, 2/9

First off, this piece will begin with the basics, but you’ll want to bookmark this page and visit it every day up until kickoff for The Big Game as I intend to update it daily with more best bets to make, player prop thoughts and a variety of other insights to help you cash your bets and walk away from Super Bowl 59 a winner. 

 

 

 

Super Bowl ATS Picks For 2025

  • Spread: Chiefs -1.5
  • Total: 49

Super Bowl 59 Best Bet Against The Spread

To threepeat or not to threepeat, that is the question, right? The world is absolutely hating on the Chiefs right now, whether it’s because they think Patrick Mahomes is getting favorable calls from the referees or because Travis Kelce is getting all the attention for his relationship with Taylor Swift, and we’re seeing the public money lean against them in a major way. 

Almost 70-percent of the public money is on the Eagles, according to our friends at The Action Network, and if you’ve tailed me before, you know I like to fade the public. But it’s more than that. I won’t take anything away from Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley or any of the players, but you know what…? The Chiefs have some spectacular players, too. 

Both offenses are capable of scoring points and both defenses have been strong throughout the year. The edge goes to Kansas City for the coaching. Andy Reid is one of the most brilliant football minds in the game and he continues to set the bar for coaching greatness in the modern era. He and Patrick Mahomes have been matching wits with Eagles DC Vic Fangio for years and the Chiefs always seem to get the better of him. 

On top of that, Steve Spagnuolo is one of the premier defensive minds and excels in the realm of in-game adjustments. Nick Sirianni is going to have some difficulty staying ahead of the Spags and Reid and for that, I lean Kansas City.

 

 

 

Super Bowl 59 Total Points: Game Total Bet

We’ve got a pretty big number here at 49 and while a 26-24 game is VERY possible and would tilt us toward the over, I think the defensive chess-match we’re about to witness could keep the scoring on the lower end. 

If you like year-long statistics, then you can look at the under being 11-9 in Eagles games, both regular and post-season combined, and 11-8 in Chiefs games this year. I think we’re looking at something more in line with a 24-21 kind of game.

 

 

 

2025 Super Bowl Prop Bets

Super Bowl 59 Winning Margin

As stated previously, I think this game is a close one. I have the Chiefs winning the game and could go with the 1-6 winning margin for better odds, but since I’m still getting good plus-odds on the wider margin and keeping my bet relatively protected. 

We’ll have plenty of opportunities to chase longer odds. What we are trying to do here is establish a foundation for our bets and build off from there.

Super Bowl 59 Onside Kick Attempt

We know the rules for onside kicks have turned the whole thing into an exercise of futility, but we’re only betting that there will be one. Success is irrelevant. I’ve got this game being a close one and have bet it accordingly. 

With that being the case, I’m expecting a very late lead change that puts one of the teams with their backs to the wall and in need of an onside kick. Doesn’t matter if the kicking team recovers or not.

 

 

 

Best Super Bowl 59 SGP

Chiefs ML + Under 49 + Saquon Barkley Anytime TD (+650 at BetMGM)

We’ll start here and see what other directions we want to go. Up above you have my reasoning for the Chiefs to win the game as well as why I expect the under to hit. Now we’ll add a little something that will boost the odds for us in a realistic way. 

Given the usage of Barkley and his explosiveness to break a long run and touchdown, we’ll simply add him in at -200 to boost our odds a little more. No one ever said that a same game parlay needs to be complicated, did they?

 

 

 

Super Bowl 59 Player Props

Dallas Goedert Over 4.5 Receptions (-135 at BetMGM)

The Chiefs struggles against the tight end have been well-documented throughout the season and while Goedert has only gone over this reception count once in his last four games, we’re still looking at him to do it for the second game in a row. 

With the Chiefs run defense focused on slowing down Saquon Barkley and Trent McDuffie focused on stopping A.J. Brown, the middle of the field is going to be open for Goedert to help move the chains. 

Kansas City allowed an average of eight passes for 65-plus yards per game to the tight end and that should continue. I’m not saying he has some big, crazy game, but he’ll be leaned on in tight spots when Jalen Hurts needs a first down. 

Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions (-160 at BetMGM)

In honor of Shan Blunt from SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, I’m looking for a little tight end action here. Kelce remains Mahomes’ go-to- guy and the Super Bowl won’t be any different. The Bills did everything they could to stifle Kelce and were successful, but the Eagles have some linebacker issues. Most notable is the absence of Nakobe Dean. 

He was their primary coverage against the tight end and since he went down, opposing teams have exposed that hole. In the Divisional Round, Tyler Higbee had seven grabs for 54 yards and a score while Zach Ertz roasted them for 11 catches and 104 yards in the Conference Championship. I’ll happily put my money on Kelce to keep the ball rolling.

Jalen Hurts Over 215.5 Passing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

The Chiefs are likely to do do whatever they can to slow down Saquon Barkley and avoid the long touchdown. Typically, Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo likes to run two high-safeties, but considering how Barkley shreds defenses that don't safeguard against the run, we can expect more single-high safety coverage schemes which will open up the passing options for Hurts even more. Spags is also likely to use a lot of blitz packages which will force Hurts to get rid of the ball more quickly, so the hope is for deeper shots downfield and quick dump-offs to the slot receiver. We'll explore more props that align with this but for now, we'll stay with the Hurts prop.

Isiah Pacheco Under 22.5 Rushing Yards (-125 at BetMGM)

There are a few things working against Pacheco in this match-up. First off, the Eagles defense ranked second in DVOA against the run and allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards per game this season; fifth-fewest among all playoff teams during the post-season. Second, the snap count and touches simply don't line up well for him. The Eagles run defense is stout up the middle and the Chiefs prefer to use Kareem Hunt and even Samaje Perine more for the outside work. Pacheco's snaps have never returned to where they were pre-injury and since he's been back, the Chiefs have yet to really lean on hm. I don't think it starts now.

Noah Gray Over 1.5 Receptions (+110 on BetMGM)

Yes, we're also expecting the Chiefs second tight end to do a little something in this one. Nothing crazy, but with the Eagles using Cover-4 and Cover-6 as much as they have all year (37-perecent - highest in the NFL) and in the playoffs (42.3-percent), then the middle of the field is going to be wide open at times. We know the loss of Nakobe Dean hurts the linebacker coverage of the tight end and should Philadelphia focus more on Kelce, Gray should get into the mix. For plus-odds, this bet makes sense.

Xavier Worthy Over 5.5 Rushing Yards (-140 on BetMGM)

So this one is a little chalky at this point and while sure, you can bet it on it's own with the juice the way it is, this will probably work a little better in a parlay. A few of the hosts on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio have already thrown this out there, as did Jim Bowden on the Fantasy Alarm Show, and I like it enough to bet it myself and offer it up to you. Th Eagles have allowed the fewest yards per game for screen passes, so I am expecting Andy Reid to utilize the jet sweeps and get the ball into Worthy's hands for a rush or two. Given Worthy's speed, gaining six yards doesn't seem too difficult.

Saquon Barkley Longest Rush Over 23.5 Yards (-140 on BetMGM)

Yeah, that's right. Put your Captain Obvious cape on and play this prop, affectionately referred to as the Ground Boi by me, Coop and Josh Wagner. Barkley has exceeded this mark in eight games this season and there is no denying his explosiveness. Can the Chiefs stop him? Maybe, but given the way he is running and the momentum with which he has carried over from game to game, this is a bet we'll happily make.

Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Completions (-115 at BetMGM) *Just Added*

The Chiefs are all about keeping the ball in Mahomes' hands and I expect him to throw a lot more than handing the ball off against this Eagles defense. Short, quick throws over the middle, shovel passes, whatever it takes, he's going to be the one to move the ball up and down the field. He hasn't gone over this number of completions yet during the playoffs, but he surpassed it in five of his last six regular season games. Unless the Chiefs jump out to some massive early lead and they just look to kill the clock in the second half, he should help us cash this prop by the end of it all.

Drue Tranquill Over 7.5 Tackles + Assists (+120 on BetMGM) *Just Added*

I'm sure Coop will drop his favorite Tackle-Monster prop on Friday's show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, but in the meantime, I'm going to give the nod to Tranquill who has been a beast throughout the playoffs thus far. Nick Bolton is likely where most will turn, but his numbers seem a little juiced up. Besides, I like for Tranquill to see more opportunities given the outside-zone scheme the Eagles like to use with both Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell/Will Shipley. He's surpassed this number on two of his last three games and should continue his assault this Sunday.

*Plenty more Super Bowl props to follow throughout the week, so again, bookmark this page and keep coming back each day to check on what new NFL best bets have been added!

 

 

 

What Are The Best Super Bowl Betting Promos For 2025?

For starters, you need to find the right book for you. Start by visiting our sportsbook promotions and check out all the latest promotional offers and betting promo codes we are currently offering. 

You should see a variety of deals from the likes of BetMGM, and both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks if betting is legal in your state. If it isn’t, then check out all the latest offers from Underdog, PrizePicks and more and be sure to use promo code ALARM to get all the bonuses, deposit matches and free picks!