NFL Conference Championship Game Previews
We’re down to the NFL’s version of the Final Four. It’s AFC and NFC Conference Championship weekend and we’ve got the four best teams in the league this year left. The games kick off with the San Francisco 49ers traveling to the Philadelphia Eagles and then we get the Cincinnati Bengals traveling to Arrowhead, or Burrowhead as they’re calling it, for a rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs. The winners of these games will meet two Sunday’s from now in the Super Bowl in Arizona for the biggest sporting event of the year. Before the games kickoff, we’ll preview them with betting lines, over-unders, storylines, injuries, stats, rankings, and NFL DFS plays for your DraftKings and FanDuel contests.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday 3:00 pm ET
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Game Spread: Eagles -2.5
Over-Under: 46.5
Storylines
These two teams have been the best two teams in the NFC all season. Even with San Fran going down to their third-string QB and Mr. Irrelevant from the draft. Both teams are quite balanced on offense, ranking in the top-six in the league in PPG and top-five in total yards. They are generally more rush-based units than passing offenses and use a few different rushers throughout the games. That make things tough to stop too. Both teams have elite defenses who rank top-three in most key categories. While the other championship game is considered the more “glamorous” match-up with two elite quarterbacks, the NFC one is certainly the more defensive based game. It does however have a match-up between two quarterbacks who have put up their own fireworks in past meetings. That’s right we’re talking college football and Big XII college football specifically. Back in November of 2019, Oklahoma, led by Jalen Hurts, and Iowa State, led by Brock Purdy, played a one-point game that ended 42-41 OU. The two signal callers combined for 11 touchdowns and 678 total yards of offense in that game. Granted, no one is expecting that kind of shootout this time around but it’s always fun taking a look back. Turning back to the on-field play for them now, the Niners are winners of 12 straight after starting 3-4 on the year. Philadelphia has only lost one game with Jalen Hurts on the field, Week 10 versus Washington. One of those trends is going to have to stop come Sunday. If it’s Brock Purdy going to the Super Bowl, he’ll be the first rookie QB to ever make it that far. Five rookie QBs have made the Championship games previously but all have lost.
Key Injuries To Watch
For the Eagles, they have Lane Johnson and Avonte Maddox as question marks for the game but both are likely to play as they played last week as well. For San Fran, there are more players with the questionable tag including Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Elijah Mitchell, and Charles Omenihu. It’s likely that all are likely to play unless pressure grows to hold Omenihu out following his arrest earlier this week.
| Sunday 3:00 pm ET | ||||
| 49ers | at | Eagles | ||
| Stat | Rank | Offensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 26.5 | 6 | PPG | 3 | 28.1 |
| 31:51 | 3 | T.O.P. | 8 | 30:33 |
| 365.6 | 5 | Total Yards | 3 | 389.1 |
| 61.6 | 22 | Off Plays | 5 | 66.1 |
| 29.6 | 9 | Rush Att. | 3 | 32 |
| 138.8 | 8 | Rush Yds | 5 | 147.6 |
| 4.7 | 10 | Rush YPA | 13 | 4.6 |
| 30.1 | 26 | Pass Att. | 23 | 31.5 |
| 226.8 | 13 | Pass Yds | 9 | 241.5 |
| 7.9 | 4 | Pass YPA | 2 | 8.1 |
| 49ers | at | Eagles | ||
| Stat | Rank | Defensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 16.3 | 1 | PPG Allowed | 8 | 20.2 |
| 300.6 | 1 | Yds/G Allowed | 2 | 301.5 |
| 5 | 4 | Yds/P Allowed | 1 | 4.8 |
| 77.7 | 2 | Rush Yds/G | 16 | 121.6 |
| 3.4 | 2 | Rush Yds/Att | 24 | 4.6 |
| 5.47 | 23 | RB Rec/G | 20 | 5.06 |
| 222.9 | 20 | Pass Yds/G | 1 | 179.8 |
| 6.4 | 11 | Pass Yds/Att | 1 | 5.5 |
| 17.5 | 22 | Def vs. QB | 27 | 16.1 |
| 16.1 | 32 | Def vs. RB | 14 | 22.3 |
| 36.1 | 2 | Def vs. WR | 23 | 27.8 |
| 9.4 | 22 | Def vs. TE | 24 | 8.8 |
| 49ers | at | Eagles | ||
| Stat | Rank | Advanced Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 30.05 | 31 | Pace | 9 | 27.29 |
| 48.1% | 7 | Rush % | 6 | 48.4% |
| 51.9% | 26 | Pass % | 27 | 51.6% |
| 54.0% | 18 | RZ % | 3 | 67.8% |
| 56.8% | 20 | RZ % Allowed | 11 | 52.7% |
| -14.1% | 1 | Total DVOA | 6 | -9.7% |
| -8.0% | 5 | Pass DVOA | 1 | -15.5% |
| -23.6% | 2 | Rush DVOA | 21 | -1.9% |
| -21.80% | 4 | DVOA v. #1 WR | 2 | -27.30% |
| 1.20% | 18 | DVOA v. #2 WR | 4 | -20.30% |
| 27.40% | 30 | DVOA v. #3/4 WR | 22 | 9.60% |
| -3.60% | 13 | DVOA v. TE | 6 | -12.90% |
Top NFL DFS Plays
49ers: Christian McCaffrey
Even against a relatively stout rush defense in Dallas last week, and questionable coming into the game, but he still managed 35 yards rushing and a score while catching six passes for 22 yards. That’s 17.7 fantasy points in a PPR setup and now he faces a team giving up five catches a game to running backs. The Eagles’ rush defense is also more susceptible on the ground in terms of yards per game. That should benefit McCaffrey in terms of an ability to put up total yard numbers over 100 yards with several catches and a shot at the end zone.
Eagles: Jalen Hurts
Last week was the first week back in a few games for Hurts but he didn’t appear to skip a beat. While it wasn’t an elite passing yardage day, he was still efficient. He put up 154 yards and two touchdowns through the air and 34 yards and a score on the ground. That’s what we’ve come to expect from him one the last couple of seasons. While the Niners’ defense is far better than the Giants’ defense they faced last week, they have been beaten by rushing QBs this year somewhat. We did see Kenneth Gainwell have a big game against the Giants last week but this isn’t the Giants defense and that was likelier the game script and 38-7 score than anything else.
Game Prediction
49ers 24 Eagles 21
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday 6:30 pm ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Game Spread: Chiefs -1
Over-Under: 47.5
Storylines
The continuation of a burgeoning AFC rivalry, this is the fourth time in a year that these two teams will be meeting. The Bengals have won three straight over of the Chiefs. However, that’s far from the whole story here. Clearly, there’s a huge deal of talk surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ ankle and just how injured the Chiefs’ signal caller is. Plenty of people have weighed in but, all of this talk has also effected the Vegas line as well. It seems like everyday the line has flipped based on practice news or report or Mahomes walking down a step from the podium following practice. It’s getting a bit out of hand. The other thing the three-straight wins stats doesn’t take into account is that the Chiefs had leads of 18, 14, and seven in those games respectively and couldn’t hang on. Will Sunday’s game be another comeback win for Joe Burrow who doesn’t seem to be phased by anything or will Mahomes vanquish his foe at home? While the Niners-Eagles game is considered the more defensive battle, this game is the glossy, quarterback heavy game. These two offenses are both top-six in passing attempts and top-five in passing yards per game. Expect to see more of the high-flying offenses on Sunday as well as both defenses have been beatable on big plays.
Key Injuries To Watch
For the Bengals, there are three offensive lineman who are still questionable for this game which has been a running theme for them since Week 17 of the regular season. Hayden Hurst is also questionable to play which could take away a passing and blocking option for the Bengals offense. Just how healthy Patrick Mahomes is has been the big talk but lost in the shuffle is the fact that they may get Mecole Hardman back into the fold.
| Sunday 6:30 pm ET | ||||
| Bengals | at | Chiefs | ||
| Stat | Rank | Offensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 26.1 | 7 | PPG | 1 | 29.2 |
| 31:51 | 2 | T.O.P. | 18 | 29:41 |
| 360.5 | 8 | Total Yards | 1 | 413.6 |
| 65.8 | 7 | Off Plays | 13 | 64.4 |
| 24.9 | 24 | Rush Att. | 25 | 24.5 |
| 95.5 | 29 | Rush Yds | 20 | 115.9 |
| 3.8 | 29 | Rush YPA | 8 | 4.7 |
| 38.1 | 6 | Pass Att. | 5 | 38.3 |
| 265 | 5 | Pass Yds | 1 | 297.8 |
| 7.4 | 9 | Pass YPA | 3 | 8.1 |
| Bengals | at | Chiefs | ||
| Stat | Rank | Defensive Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 20.1 | 6 | PPG Allowed | 16 | 21.7 |
| 335.7 | 16 | Yds/G Allowed | 11 | 328.2 |
| 5.4 | 15 | Yds/P Allowed | 8 | 5.1 |
| 106.6 | 7 | Rush Yds/G | 8 | 107.2 |
| 4.2 | 9 | Rush Yds/Att | 15 | 4.4 |
| 4.44 | 12 | RB Rec/G | 32 | 6.59 |
| 229.1 | 23 | Pass Yds/G | 18 | 220.9 |
| 6.6 | 15 | Pass Yds/Att | 6 | 6.1 |
| 16.8 | 24 | Def vs. QB | 3 | 22.3 |
| 20.5 | 21 | Def vs. RB | 16 | 21.9 |
| 28 | 22 | Def vs. WR | 9 | 32 |
| 11.1 | 14 | Def vs. TE | 12 | 11.2 |
| Bengals | at | Chiefs | ||
| Stat | Rank | Advanced Stats | Rank | Stat |
| 28.71 | 21 | Pace | 14 | 27.46 |
| 37.9% | 28 | Rush % | 26 | 38.1% |
| 62.1% | 5 | Pass % | 7 | 61.9% |
| 64.9% | 5 | RZ % | 2 | 69.4% |
| 52.0% | 9 | RZ % Allowed | 31 | 67.3% |
| -4.4% | 11 | Total DVOA | 17 | 1.4% |
| -0.5% | 12 | Pass DVOA | 20 | 6.5% |
| -9.5% | 14 | Rush DVOA | 15 | -6.9% |
| -16.20% | 6 | DVOA v. #1 WR | 31 | 22.00% |
| 28.40% | 31 | DVOA v. #2 WR | 10 | -11.60% |
| 12.70% | 24 | DVOA v. #3/4 WR | 8 | -18.70% |
| -16.80% | 5 | DVOA v. TE | 19 | 0.40% |
Top NFL DFS Plays
Bengals: Ja'Marr Chase
The Chiefs have been beaten up by top wideouts all year and rank 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1s. That’s the factual reason to play him. What’s the rest? It’s Chase and it’s the playoffs. He’s been special in his young career in the playoffs. Just last week he saw eight targets with five catches for 61 and a score. That was in the snow and against a tougher defense than he’ll face in Kansas City. In three combined games against the Chiefs, Chase has seen 29 targets, 24 catches, 417 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. That’s a beefy stat line.
Chiefs: Isiah Pacheco
The Chiefs are going to want to protect Mahomes’ ankle as much as possible on Sunday. Luckily, they have a very good running back who can help with that task. In the previous meeting this year, Pacheco carried the ball 14 times for 66 yards and a score while also tossing in a couple of catches. Last week against the Jaguars he toted the rock 16 times for 95 yards, While the Bengals have been a solid rush defense, they still allowed more than 100 yards a game on the ground and 12 total touchdowns to running backs. Even if the Bengals get up by two scores, expect the Chiefs to still be using Pacheco to give their defense a break.
Game Prediction
Chiefs 28 Bengals 27