NFL Playoff 2026: All You Need For One & Done Fantasy Football Playoffs

Sure, seasonal fantasy football is over. And dynasty fantasy football, to some degree, is in a bit of a slumber until the combine comes around. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t fantasy football left to play. True fantasy football gamers are going to cling to every last bit of action until the games are through. And that’s where playoff fantasy football comes in.

Much like our options of redraft, best ball, guillotine, vampire leagues, etc., during the regular season, there are many options for playoffs as well. And, here at Fantasy Alarm, we cover them all. We’ve already gotten you started on best ball and the FFPC Challenge (links below). So it’s time to dive into One and Done contests. 

Playoff Best Ball Tips and Rankings

FFPC Playoff Challenge Strategy and Expert Advice

Looking for a one and done contest to join? We love this format so much we are running a FREE one over on RT Sports! Just email Howard Bender at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com to let him know you are interested and he'll set you up!

The Basic Rules For One & Done Playoff Contests

The idea is simple, but it doesn’t hurt to hit the basics quickly. For leagues like FFPC, you are picking one lineup and riding that out for the duration of the playoffs. Here, we are picking a new lineup each week. 

This applies to sites like MFL.com, RTSports, or tournaments like Rob Norton’s Baby Bowl (if you aren’t in that one, simply message Rob Norton on Twitter telling him you want in, make a donation, and you’re in!) The twist, of course, is that, once you use a player, you can’t use him again. 

So, if you use Josh Allen in Wild Card weekend, then he goes to the Super Bowl, you better hope you have the other quarterback left playing in that game.

Building A Winning One & Done Playoff Contest Strategy

Our strategy is going to be a combination of three things. Playing the odds, playing the matchups, and game theory.

If you create a narrative and things break just right for you, you can take it home. Let’s get into it. 

Playing The Odds When Building One & Done Lineups

You have to play the odds to some degree here. Whether you lean into the favorites or try to “be unique” by projecting long shots to make the Super Bowl, you have to have some semblance of a plan. 

All teams are not created equal in terms of their odds of making deep runs. And having players from those final few games still available to you at the end is crucial, especially at the “onesie” positions like quarterback, tight end, and even DST and kicker. 

Let’s take the wildcard weekend last year as an example. Let’s say you were choosing between Saquon Barkley and Najee Harris. 

At first glance, it seems like Saquon Barkley would have been the optimal choice because he scored more points. But when you take into account the outcomes of the games and the future games, it actually becomes pretty clear that Najee Harris was the better pick. 

If you look at both the Super Bowl odds and the Wild Card Round spread, it’s pretty clear that the Eagles were expected to win and the Steelers were expected to lose. And that’s what happened. That means that was the only game where you could use Najee Harris in this format, whereas the Eagles went on to play three more games. And, in those games, Saquon Barkley scored 39.2, 31.2, and 15.7 points. Wild Card week was actually the worst week to use him.

And, even more importantly, Barkley went to the Super Bowl, where you had far more limited options. As we mentioned, Barkley scored 15.7 points - the next highest scoring back was Kareem Hunt, who scored 2.4 PPR points. If you didn’t save Barkley, you lost out on a good amount of replacement value there.

Keep in mind - WINNING the Super Bowl doesn’t matter. Guys like Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady have been top-scoring fantasy QBs in Super Bowls that they lost. So we look at the odds of MAKING the Super Bowl. Here are the most recent odds per BetMGM:

Playing The Matchups When Building One & Done Lineups

The ideal outcome is for you to have players who do well in a losing effort early on. That’s optimal. But it’s still extremely important that they do well - you need to score points, after all. In the early rounds, when you have a lot of options at your disposal, it’s actually more important to get points than it is for the guy to get eliminated. Even in the Super Bowl, there are two teams to choose from, so if you use a Super Bowl WR in round 1 and he goes off, it’s not the end of the world.

So, in that regard, matchups are key. For instance, we expect the Steelers to lose. But do we really want to run DK Metcalf up against the Houston Texans' “Swarm City” defense? The same goes for Rico Dowdle and the Panthers. How much running will they be able to do against a tough Rams defense as 10-point underdogs? There are six teams that will get eliminated this week, so you don’t HAVE to use someone from each of them. Even if you think a team will win, it might make sense to use them here if the matchup is great. 

Game Theory For NFL Playoff One & Done Contests

There are a number of different ways to use game theory to gain leverage. So let’s lay them out.

Positional Game Theory

We mentioned the “onesie” positions. Consider which positions are deep and which are thin. There are a lot of decent quarterback options. I mean, the nature of the position suggests that a quarterback is going to be involved regardless for each team in every game. So QB is a fairly deep position.

Tight end, on the other hand, can be thin. The top six fantasy scoring tight ends from the regular season are all eliminated. Do we have any interest in using tight ends from teams like the Panthers or Packers? The one true elite tight end option is George Kittle, and his team is a 5-point underdog against arguably the best tight end defense this week. It’s a tough position, so you have to have some kind of plan. For the Wild Card, I’m likely using either Dalton Schultz vs. the Steelers or Dalton Kincaid vs. the Jaguars in my lineups. 

Conference Game Theory

It’s been a key point of the article, but you do need to strategically “save” guys for the Super Bowl. As we mentioned, if you use all the viable tight ends up, you won’t have one left for the big game. One way to handle that is to add up the players you like at each position in each conference. If one conference is loaded, you can lean into that early and save guys from the other conference. This is a popular strategy, especially at quarterback.

I put together a basic depth chart with some players color-coded at the bottom of this article to give you a feel for how to value these guys. Just a quick glance shows us that there are a LOT of viable running backs on the NFC side - especially since at leat three teams have two backs you can realistically start with the Seahawks, Rams, and Bears. That means you can use up NFC running backs a lot more easily in the early rounds if you want, with a plan to just start whatever AFC running back is left in the Super Bowl. 

Team Game Theory

As you can see in the grid at the bottom, some teams are also more loaded at singular positions than others. For instance, multiple NFC teams have multiple viable running backs in fantasy. If you use Kenneth Walker or D’Andre Swift and the Seahawks/Bears advance, you still have Zach Charbonett and Kyle Monangai in a pinch.

In the conference round, especially, you can use wide receiver rooms to your advantage. Let's say you have to start two WRs each week and the conference matchups are Broncos vs. Patriots and Rams vs. Eagles. The AFC teams each have one clear WR1, while the NFC teams each have two good WRs. In that spot, you could potentially start AJ Brown and Puka Nacua, knowing that you will still have Davante Adams or DeVonta Smith to pair with Courtland Sutton or Stefon Diggs, depending on who wins. If you go with a combo like AJ Brown and Courtland Sutton, and the Eagles and Broncos win, now you are starting a combination of DeVonta Smith with someone like Pat Bryant, Troy Franklin, or Jahan Dotson. And that’s not likely to be the optimal lineup. 

Uniqueness Game Theory

This is the last piece of the puzzle. And it can often come down to luck. But in some of these large tournaments, you are going to need some luck. And, if you truly believe an upset is coming, it’s even better to lean into that.

For instance, a lot of people will be using Christian McCaffrey Wild Card weekend with them being 5-point underdogs. What if you think the 49ers go to the Super Bowl, and you are one of the few teams that save CMC til the end? What if you use Puka Nacua this week and he goes crazy and the Rams lose despite being 10-point favorites? I mean, they did lose to the Panthers earlier this year…

NFL Playoffs Wild Card Weekend Example Lineup

Playoff fantasy is the ultimate game since it involves predictions, matchups, and game theory rolled into one. Not everyone is going to have the same predictions of who wins; even so, the lineups will be all over the place. 

Here is an example of a basic lineup I might use based on these concepts:

• QB: Josh Allen

Realistically, you only need four total quarterbacks - one for each round. The NFC teams have a lot of viable quarterbacks over there, while the AFC has a few that have been highly capable of spike weeks. Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence play each other this week in a game with a 52-point over/under, and one will be done after this, so I like using either QB from that game. I can potentially try to use AFC QBs all the way up to the Super Bowl, with a plan to just start whichever NFC QB makes the big game. 

• RB: Kyren Williams

The Rams are 10-point favorites against the Panthers here. That means Vegas is predicting a positive game script here for the Rams, which usually favors the run game. As I mentioned, there are tons of NFC RBs, and I’ll have Kyren Williams in my pocket if I need him. 

• RB: Christian McCaffrey

Win or lose, I’m not going to miss out on what might be my one chance to use Christian McCaffrey. It’s actually a bad matchup here for George Kittle and, if the 49ers do win, I’ll be happy to use him next week. Using both Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey this week actually is not a crazy move if you don’t think either team makes it to the Super Bowl.

• WR: AJ Brown

The 49ers' pass defense has been soft this year. And, as we mentioned, we’re going to have Devonta Smith available to us later on in a pinch if we need him. The NFC has tons of wide receiver options. 

• WR: Christian Watson

The Bears also have a pretty soft pass defense this year. Christian Watson can take the top off defenses for big spike weeks - he did have a two-touchdown game against the Bears earlier this year. The Packers are also the 7 seed, so if they do win, they will face a very tough Seahawks secondary on the road, where we don’t want to use Watson in round 2. If the Packers do make a deep run, we’ll all be scrambling to pick between Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs anyway. 

• TE: Dalton Schultz

The Steelers have quietly done pretty poorly against the tight end this year. They’ve allowed the fourth most PPR points to the position on the season, and they’re just outside the top 10 easiest matchups in DVOA per FTN Fantasy. So I’m going to use Schultz under the assumption that A. the Texans don’t go far, and B. I’ve got some viable NFC tight ends that will get through. Navigating tight end is going to be crucial to these contests. 

• FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

With how scarce running backs and tight ends are, I’m likely to use a wide receiver in the flex often. There’s an argument to be made to use a Jaguars WR here. They should have to throw, plus you’ll still have two of Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr, and Jakobi Meyers left if they do win. But I like the idea of using McMillan here as he’s clearly the best player on a team that I think is going to lose. 

• DST: Pittsburgh Steelers

TJ Watt is a disruptive force that always seems to get his hands on the football. If the Steelers win, it will take defense. If they lose, I don’t really care - that’s probably best for me. The 39.5 over/under suggests that the odds they get blown out and really hurt my lineup are low. 

• K: Harrison Mevis

We would use Matt Prater, but he’s currently questionable. There are only so many options to use good weather kickers here. So we’ll take the points with Mevis as big favorites kicking in Carolina. And the plan would then be to use up NFC kickers and save the AFC ones.  

Rankings Grid

Here is a depth chart that incorporates as many of these thoughts as possible. As you will notice, the kickers and defenses especially factor in both early matchups and odds of making it to the Super Bowl.

This game is going to require you to lean into your OWN predictions, but hopefully this helps in deciding where/when to allocate your resources.