Week 15 of the NFL season is here and it’s an important one all around. We have the fantasy football playoffs kicking off. Best ball tournaments are getting round two started as well. And as always, the deeper we trek into the season, the more Saturday football games we tend to see. But for Sunday’s main slate we are once again given a 10-game slate with plenty of options at our disposal. Similar to last week, we have some low totals, which is a recurring theme this season. Six of the 10 games on Sunday’s slate have implied totals at 39.5 points or less. A lot of the excitement, especially at the skill positions, will be found in the afternoon window for Sunday’s slate. Be sure to have exposure to those later games. But for the 1:00pm ET window we might be able to find some D/ST gems to put us in a good position heading into the late window. Here are the Week 15 NFL DFS lineup picks and top plays for the D/ST position on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

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NFL DFS D/ST Top Tier Picks

Miami Dolphins

This pick goes against what I normally look for in a D/ST, but even at the $4,000 price tag on DraftKings, this is a great spot for Miami. This defense is rolling. Sure, they gave up 28 points to Tennessee on Monday night in a losing effort and they have come up short against good teams. But the New York Jets are not a good team. These two teams met on Black Friday just a few weeks ago. The Dolphins had seven sacks, two takeaways, and scored a touchdown for a 21-point return on DraftKings. The Jets were only able to put up 159 yards of offense and seven points in that game. The over/under for this game is sitting at 37 points as of Thursday morning and the Dolphins are 8.5-point favorites which gives the Jets an implied team total of roughly 14.25 points. The Dolphins have returned at least a dozen fantasy points in four straight games on DraftKings and this is a spot where they could once again return value. The one concern is the short week, especially coming off a loss. But they haven’t had to travel and the matchup is solid against a sputtering offense.

Atlanta Falcons

We’re definitely grasping at the low-hanging fruit with the Falcons this week. We loved them back in Week 1 where they returned a dozen fantasy points against the Carolina Panthers. No real reason not to consider them here. It is a road game, but it’s the lowest total on the main slate at 34 points and the Dirty Birds are favored by a field goal. Bryce Young has fumbled in four straight games and he has two interceptions in that span as well. He hasn’t even eclipsed 200 passing yards in a game since Week 8 and his offensive line is abysmal. Young’s been sacked 48 times this year including 19 times over the last four games. Atlanta doesn’t have the greatest pass rush but if they keep the Panthers out of the end zone and get three sacks with some turnovers, they should provide a good floor similar to their first meeting earlier in the year.

NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Picks

Chicago Bears

The Bears are not the steppingstone they once were. This defense is playing much better of late and they were the D/ST I was heaviest on last week and they returned 14 fantasy points at just $2,400. They do see a price jump this week but I’m willing to go right back to the well here. The Browns are favored by about a field goal and this game has one of those low totals on the slate at just 38 points. The Bears have held three of their last four opponents to under 300 yards of offense and 13 or fewer points as well. The Browns have certainly found some offensive momentum since Joe Flacco was named the starting quarterback, but the Bears have 11 takeaways in their last three games with eight sacks in that sample size. The Bears have locked up Montez Sweat and are rumored to be inking Jaylon Johnson to an extension prior to this week’s game. Last week against the Lions, Johnson didn’t allow any receiver he was covering to make a catch and he touted a 0.0 passer rating allowed. They’re probably better suited for Tournaments at this price, but this group is certainly trending in the right direction over the last month.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys won’t be the only D/ST I consider from this game, but more on the Bills shortly. Quite simply, we’re getting one of the best defenses in the league at a discount. It’s a tough matchup on the road and Vegas is expecting plenty of offense in this game. But there are some weather elements that we’ll get to in the next section. Think of the Cowboys as the Cleveland Browns this week. The Browns have been priced down numerous times this season. The Cowboys have returned double-digit fantasy points seven times this year and they allowed the Philadelphia Eagles offense to score just one touchdown last Sunday night. Josh Allen is still quite turnover prone with 14 interceptions and four fumbles on the year. This is a solid GPP recommendation for a D/ST that has shown plenty of upside but the matchup is a tough one in upstate New York.

NFL DFS D/ST Value Picks

New York Jets

I briefly mentioned the Jets as a potential value play when this article was published in the Bills section. But I think they deserve to be added to the article now. The Dolphins are beat up, they're coming off a short week after losing to the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. Tyreek Hill is Questionable, the offensive line is hurting and gave up some pressure to the Titans. The Jets can likely generate more pressure and we have wind to account for in this matchup. I'm almost willing to admit that I'm bearish on the Bills and may prefer the Jets more at this price point.

Buffalo Bills

This one is purely a gut call. There is certainly appeal in paying for the New York Jets as a value play. I fault no one for choosing to go that route. The implied total is very high in this game at 50.5 points but the Bills are slight favorites at home. The third-cheapest D/ST on DraftKings is actually a favorite? Okay, now I’m curious. So how do we justify the play? Well despite all the injuries the Bills seem to take on a week-to-week basis, their players are stepping up. In their last three games against the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and New York Jets they’ve forced nine sacks with eight takeaways. Sure, they gave up points to the Eagles, but they just held the Kansas City Chiefs to 17 points on offense last week. Moreover, those last two games were on the road. The Dallas Cowboys come to town in Week 15. Dallas won’t get the luxury of playing in a controlled environment like they do down in Jerry World. Early forecasts in Buffalo during this game call for temps in the 40’s, but with winds ranging from 10-20mph with a decent chance of rain. Dallas’ offense has been rolling right through everybody so for Cash games I’m fine if you opt to go with the Jets or Patriots, or just spend up at the position. But anytime you have a value D/ST as the favorite in a home game, I’m willing to consider that team as a GPP-only type of play. 

New England Patriots

Hard to believe this game was supposed to be in primetime Monday night but it was a smart call by the NFL to flex this into the Sunday window. The Patriots defense will be a trendy “spend down” option this week. They’re only $2,300 on DraftKings and have returned at least five fantasy points in seven straight games. They’ve allowed just 44 points to opposing offenses in their last four games, so despite the injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez, the defense has done just fine. They also have the added benefit of a few extra days off having played on Thursday night in Week 14. Now we all know the Chiefs have a very good offense when they’re functioning at their best. But that isn’t the case right now. They’ve lost four of their last six games and they’re not routinely having those 24+ point efforts on offense. Bill Belichick has had extra time to prepare for this offense and while I don’t think they win this game, they can do enough on defense to pay off this price tag.

NFL DFS D/ST Fades

Tennessee Titans

This one has some contingencies to it. For starters, we’re waiting to hear if C.J. Stroud will play or not as he didn’t practice on Wednesday with a concussion. If Stroud is out, then I’ll have some interest in playing Tennessee but overall this price sucks on DraftKings. Nico Collins also didn’t practice on Wednesday and Noah Brown was limited. It sounds like Dalton Schultz will return this week, but overall this is a spot where I’m not excited to pay a premium for Tennessee. Their pass funnel defense almost routinely gives up 300+ passing yards and they haven’t picked off an opposing quarterback since Week 10. If Stroud clears concussion protocol this is the easiest fade on the slate. If he’s active, there’s more of an argument for this group but overall, the price tag still isn’t that appealing. Update: So Stroud will miss this game and it sounds like Nico Collins will be inactive as well. The Texans are surprisingly going to roll with Case Keenum to keep their playoff hopes alive and I don't hate the pivot as even Howard put Keenum in the Playbook. Considering the other options available in this price range, I'm still likely avoiding the Titans unless I was to play Derrick Henry in a build and wanted the correlation between RB and D/ST.

Los Angeles Rams

I gave some serious thought to fading the San Francisco 49ers. I don’t love that it’s a road game for the most expensive team on the slate, going up against an offense that’s coming off the bye week. I don’t think Arizona will be competitive, but I think they’ll put up points especially in garbage time. So while I’m on the fence about fading the 49ers, I will confidently say I’m avoiding the Rams at home against the Washington Commanders. The Commanders will travel cross country, but like the Cardinals, they’re also well rested and coming off their bye week. The Rams don’t offer a lot of upside defensively. They can get a few sacks, which Sam Howell gladly takes, but they don’t force many turnovers. They have just one performance all season returning 10+ fantasy points on DraftKings. At this price tag we’ve seen they don’t have much of a ceiling. On top of that, Sam Howell isn’t afraid to air it out 40+ times and this is a game script that could benefit Brian Robinson It’s just not a week where I see the Rams having a “break the slate” kind of performance. The Rams are 6.5-point favorites and the over/under is currently sitting at 50.5 points but that still gives the Commanders a 22-point implied team total.