Week 11 of the NFL season is upon us and we are ready to absolutely CRUSH this slate. It seems like something special is in the works here at FantasyAlarm as there’s a lot of attention to lineup theory and construction. I LOVE that and will be more than happy to weigh in this weekend in the NFL DFS Discord channel. But this slate shapes up to be… Kind of weird? And what I mean by that is, we have some low totals according to Vegas and to go with that, we have huge favorites on the slate. Five games on this slate currently have an implied total under 42 points while seven of these games have teams favored by at least a touchdown. Slates like these can be tough to read and overall, value is not presenting itself to us late in the week so if we need to save salary, it may be at this position. Let’s take a look at the top NFL DFS D/ST’s for Week 11!
Be sure to check out the rest of the NFL DFS Coaches and DFS Watch List throughout the week!
NFL DFS D/ST Top Tier Picks
I don’t love the Cowboys, but I’m willing to write them up for this article simply because I thought they’d be more expensive. But they’re only $4,100 on DraftKings which is manageable. Here’s the problem with this slate though: we don’t have much value at wide receiver or running back. So to open up salary, this is probably the position we save some money. But if you can fit Dallas in, obviously they’re an easy D/ST to target. The Cowboys only have three takeaways in their last four games and the fantasy-output hasn’t been great by any means. And if I’m being honest, I do have concerns about Frank Reich taking over the play calling for this offense. Will that fix Bryce Young? No, but with Reich calling the offensive shots, I think he’ll have a better idea how to attack the Cowboys defense. Dallas is tough to run on and even without Trevon Diggs, they’ve been tough to throw on as well. The implied total is roughly around 42 points while Cowboys are favored by 10.5 points. But we’ll need sacks and turnovers by Dallas to really see them hit their ceiling and that hasn’t been the case lately.
Well wouldn’t you know it, turns out the bye week was just what the San Francisco 49ers needed to get back on track. The 49ers unloaded on the Jaguars despite traveling cross-country and put up 20 fantasy points last week with five sacks, four takeaways, and just three points allowed. The Jacksonville Jaguars certainly have weapons on offense, but the 49ers absolutely pummeled them. Like many games on this main slate, we have a relatively low scoring affair on tap. Vegas has this one with an implied total of 41.5 points and the 49ers are 11.5-point favorites. Baker Mayfield has also been getting sacked a little bit more of late and is no stranger to errant throws resulting in a turnover. I still have some mild concerns about the 49ers secondary, especially with Mike Evans taken off the injury report late in the week. But overall, this is still a spot I’m willing to spend up on a D/ST.
NFL DFS D/ST Mid-Tier Picks
The Steelers are teetering on that top-tier/mid-range area on DraftKings, but with the news that Deshaun Watson is done for the year, the Browns will turn to Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the start on Sunday. I’m actually flummoxed that the Steelers are still slight underdogs, but the over/under on several sportsbooks is just 33 points. That’s historically low and it firmly puts both D/ST’s in play but I’m opting for writing up Pittsburgh because they’re slightly cheaper than Cleveland. DTR received significant playing time earlier in the year against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4, and he wound up throwing three interceptions and had a fumble also. The Cleveland Browns may just end up mailing this season in and this is an outstanding opportunity against a rookie quarterback to get some exposure to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Tournaments.
I feel like I’m slightly borrowing this D/ST from the one and only, Roto Buzz Guy. Howard and I lightly discussed lineup theory and building more correlative lineups earlier this week. One thing became clear to me: Howard likes the Dolphins this week, based on some of the lineups he sent me. And I totally get it. They’re at home, they’re big favorites, and the opposing offense has to bake in the South Florida humidity while the Fins get to chill in the shade. I know in previous D/ST articles I’ve been more bearish on the Dolphins and this Vic Fangio-led defense. I’m not changing my tune by any means, but I recognize a great matchup when I see one. The game has an implied total of about 46.5 points, which is higher compared to other games. But the Dolphins are still 12.5-to-13.5-point favorites depending on the sportsbook you’re looking at. The Fins are coming off their bye week and the secondary looked pretty strong with Jalen Ramsey making his debut against the Kansas City Chiefs. With a matchup against an inexperienced quarterback and the benefit of some rest, I’m willing to go overweight on this D/ST even if I think they’re overrated most weeks.
NFL DFS D/ST Value Picks
Is anybody even remotely afraid of the Buffalo Bills at this point in time? They’ve lost three of their last four games, and four of their last six. Back in Week 1, this defense actually finished with just 16 points allowed against the Bills with five sacks and four takeaways. This game has a low total at 39.5 implied points and the Bills are favored by a full touchdown. I find that a bit odd. They’re coming off a short week having just played (in a losing effort) Monday night against the Broncos. Now Josh Allen, who has been quite prone to turnovers, has to go up against a secondary featuring Sauce Gardner, D.J. Reed, and Michael Carter II who are collectively a nightmare for any passing attack. In six-of-nine games this year, the Jets have returned at least seven fantasy points on DraftKings. At this price tag, we would great accept that return. Could we potentially see an “Angry Josh Allen” narrative? Sure, but we’ve probably had that narrative for weeks now and he’s still finding ways to turn the ball over. I love builds where you can pay down to the Jets and then even correlate the play with Breece Hall in the flex for this afternoon matchup.
NFL DFS D/ST Fade
Just a classic case of pay up to Dallas or pay down literally anywhere else. I know they’re playing the New York Jets, they’re sizable favorites, they’re at home, blah blah blah… They’re hurting on defense. The Bills have lost Tre’Davious White, DaQuan Jones, and Matt Milano. They have just two takeaways in their last five games and are coming off a short week. Are the Jets an offensive force? No, but they have weapons and a competent passing attack and a strong performance from Breece Hall could really limit the upside of this D/ST. The Bills haven’t really “gone off” in DFS since Week 3, nearly two months ago. The injuries have stacked up and the Jets know this game has a lot of influence on their postseason outlook. Truthfully, I’m surprised the Jets are seven-point favorites because my gut says this is a Jets win on the road. But I’ll temper my betting expectations and acknowledge the Bills as a fade among the top tier while I’m enamored with the Jets as a value play.