NFL Week 16 is fully underway and it’s time to look at building some winning DFS lineups for Sunday main slate GPP tournaments. We know the masses are going to focus on the two games with the highest point totals -- Dallas Cowboys/Miami Dolphins (50) and Detroit Lions/Minnesota Vikings (47). Just take a look at our DFS Ownership Projections. While it’s fine to eat some of the chalk and get explosive players like Tyreek Hill into your lineups, you also need to hunt down some of those lower-owned players who are expected to pop in order to really move the needle in a large-field, multi-entry GPP. Welcome to the NFL Week 16 Contrarian Corner where we try to do just that.



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Top FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Week 16 Contrarian Plays

Geno Smith, QB Seattle Seahawks

Based on ownership projections, it looks like the herd is going to either pay up for Justin Fields or pay down for Nick Mullens. Everyone else is seeing single-digit ownership numbers and while that could certainly change, I’m not so sure it changes for Smith given the latest run of injuries for him and the success we’ve seen from Drew Lock. But Pete Carroll has already given his full endorsement of Smith and after a week of full participation in practice, it should be wheels-up for Smith and this Seahawks passing attack. The weaponry is first-rate, but it’s this match-up against the Titans that I love so much. Not only does Tennessee ranks 27th in DVOA against the pass, but they are allowing the sixth-highest passer-rating to opposing quarterbacks which points towards high-end efficiency. We’ve seen Smith throw for more than 300 yards on several occasions and against some soft pass defense, so the key here will be multiple touchdowns thrown. If Smith stays low-owned, we could see some Seattle stacks taking the big money this weekend.

Bijan Robinson, RB Atlanta Falcons

The ultimate contrarian play as no one trusts Arthur Smith to ever do the right thing. He’s misused Robinson at every turn this season and after watching the Falcons give more touches to Tyler Allgeier, I don’t expect anyone to be interested here. But Smith is trying to salvage his job right now and has decided to roll out Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. While he’s not someone we really like under center, he is more of a passing threat than Desmond Ridder which means the Colts defense isn’t going to overplay against the run. We’ve been targeting against the Colts run defense all season long and would love to do that again here. They allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game with an average of more than 40 receiving yards on running back pass-plays, they’ve allowed 20 rushing touchdowns on the season and the third-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Everyone is scared to use Bijan and while that may be understandable at this point, a strong game for him at low-ownership is exactly what wins here.

DK Metcalf, WR Seattle Seahawks

This is where we really earn our money if you’re looking to either stack the Seahawks or just do a pairing with Geno. Most people will look to Tyler Lockett for that big-play upside or Jaxon Smith-Njigba to save some salary, but in my world, Metcalf drives the bus in this offense and his ownership projections are the lowest of the three players. Yes, he costs more than both, but he plays more than 90-percent of the snaps and should be leading the team in targets. Yes, Lockett has seen four more targets over the last two games, but that has more to do with Metcalf being ejected from the game against San Francisco and the Eagles decision to double-cover him in the wake of all their defensive injuries. Metcalf will reassert his dominance this week and will punish a defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and allows an average of 83.5 receiving yards per game to them.

Dalton Schultz, TE Houston Texans

What I love about this play is that it exposes the DFS lineup optimizers and those who offer up lazy analysis. You can look at Cleveland’s numbers against the tight end and you’ll immediately bypass Schultz. The Browns rank sixth in DVOA against the tight end, allowing an average of just 26.5 receiving yards, and they allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. However, take notice of what has happened over the last two weeks since strong safety Grant Delpit landed on IR and free safety Juan Thornhill has been out with a calf injury. Last week, Cole Kmet had five catches for 23 yards and a touchdown and the week before that, Evan Engram lit them up for 95 yards and two touchdowns on a whopping 11 catches. Schultz plays 85-percent of the snaps, he saw the second-most targets on the field from Case Keenum last week, and yes, both Delpit and Thornhill are out once again. With a mid-tier price and the expectation of a strong target-share, Schultz is primed for another strong effort.