We have a two-game NBA DFS main slate on Tuesday, May 9th, as two NBA Playoffs Game 5's are taking place tonight in each conference. Both series are tied up 2-2 as the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets are the home teams against the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns, respectively. Be sure to check out our NBA DFS projections, powered by FanJections, NBA DFS Lineup Generator, and all of the rest of our NBA DFS content and tools! Plus, be sure to check out NBA player props and NBA best bets from our friends at Bettor Sports Network before tonight's NBA Playoffs matchups. Let's dive into my NBA DFS pick and top plays for daily fantasy basketball lineups tonight.
Spread: BOS -7.5
Joel Embiid - QUEST
Danilo Gallinari - OUT
Philadelphia 76ers NBA DFS Breakdown
The 76ers won Game 4 on the backs of James Harden and Joel Embiid and head back to Boston with a chance to shift all the momentum of this series in their favor. Harden played 47 of the 53 minutes last game and likely tops 40 minutes for the third straight game here. He’s flashed as high of a ceiling as anyone else but has also put up a couple of stinkers for his price. Tyrese Maxey has had a disappointing series overall but the 14, 16, 17, and 24 shot attempts he’s taken shows us he’s not backing down even without shots falling. De'Anthony Melton is one of the only other 76ers seeing any time off the bench. He’s played 24+ minutes in three of four games this series with two games of 27+ DKP and fewer than 10 in the other two. GPPs only.
Tobias Harris has had a brutal series as he’s really just seemingly going through the motions. If he has a Game 1-esque performance he can pay off his price in gold. Hard to trust given recent performances, however. Georges Niang has played 19 minutes in back-to-back games and can space the floor for Philly. He’s a last piece in, but not a priority.
Boston Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown
The Celtics have shrunk their rotation further and further and you can’t really get anyone outside of their six guys playing big minutes. Three of them are guards in Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White. Smart and Brogdon have been significantly better than White in this series but like we saw in the Atlanta series, when White gets hot, he can break a slate. White is absolutely your tournament leverage over Brogdon and Smart, and if you guys have followed my work this postseason, you know I’ve been on the other two guys 100% of the time. I like them all, but if White’s going to check in the lowest owned, that’s how you can differentiate yourself from the field.
After a dominant start to the last game, Jaylen Brown slowed down in the second half and Jayson Tatum was awful in the first half and was great after halftime. Tatum’s topped 60 DKP twice in this series and 50+ in three of four. This is the FIRST time all season long that Jaylen Brown has been below 8K, including regular season games.
Will the Celtics give Robert Williams III or Grant Williams more run than they did last game? They looked great in both of their wins and Grant Williams played 23+ minutes in both. Robert Williams had 3+ blocks in each of their wins as well. If they’re not going to be extended at all, Al Horford should approach 40 minutes again. Horford’s had an elite series defensively.
Tier 2 play(s): Jaylen Brown
Spread: DEN -6
Chris Paul - OUT
Phoenix Suns NBA DFS Breakdown
This series has turned into Devin Booker’s playground as he’s arguably playing the best basketball of his lifetime and it couldn’t come at a better time considering it was 2-0 in the series. Booker has 48+ DKP in eight straight games and 64+ in the last two, including going 34-for-43 from the floor over that span. Cameron Payne will start at point guard with Chris Paul out, but if his shot isn’t falling they’ll just turn to Booker and Kevin Durant as the primary ball handlers and use a different wing alongside them like they did in Game 4. Payne’s a secondary play.
The wings for Phoenix are incredibly fluid outside of Kevin Durant. In Game 4, we saw Landry Shamet emerge as the team’s hero off the bench scoring 19 points while knocking down five threes across 30 minutes. The game prior, it was T.J. Warren who still saw 19 minutes off the bench in Game 4 he just wasn’t impactful. Terrence Ross is someone I’d take a shot on in GPP’s as well considering his shot attempts and minutes in each of the last two games. He’s taken 14 shots and is 3-of-12 from three over that span. He can light it up when he starts seeing shots fall. If I’m ranking the three, honestly it might be Warren, Ross, then Shamet for me.
The frontcourt has also been incredibly interesting. In each of the last two games, Jock Landale has simply played better than Deandre Ayton and has topped 20+ minutes because of it. At just 3.4K, Landale likely is very popular like last slate because he’s given us 19.75 and 18.75 DKP in those two games. Ayton has constantly been in foul trouble and has been ineffective for the last two games, but man 5.6K is an intriguing price point to jump back onto the ship. In seven meetings with Denver, his best game of the year came on Christmas when he went for 22 points and 16 rebounds, putting up 52 DKP before fouling out.
Denver Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown
What more does Nikola Jokic have to do for this team? Holy cow. Jamal Murray was a great Robin to Jokic’s Batman last game notching 28 points in his own right and Murray, across four games this series, is averaging 26 points, 7.3 assists, 5.0 rebounds, and 45.6 DKP/game. At just 8.1K back at home, he’s one of the best plays of the night. Getting anything else from the guards has been a struggle, but I keep talking about the GPP leverage you can get playing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over Bruce Brown. It paid off in Game 3 and I stand by the pivot as KCP has been on the floor much more than Brown each and every night.
On the wing, Michael Porter Jr. has outplayed Aaron Gordon in each of the last two games as he’s topped 36+ DKP in two straight but Gordon has shown a higher floor than Porter, so safety versus upside. Jeff Green played 20 minutes last game for what that’s worth.
Nikola Jokic. That is all. I’m not sure what else we can say about this dude anymore. We are not worthy.
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