We have a two-game NBA DFS main slate on Monday, May 1st, on DraftKings and FanDuel. The Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics face off in Game 1 here and the 76ers are likely going to be without Joel Embiid even though we saw him at shootaround today. Phoenix Suns is going to try and steal a game away from the Denver Nuggets in Game 2 in Denver and if they do, it'll be because Devin Booker and Kevin Durant goes nuts. Be sure to check out our NBA DFS projections, powered by FanJections, NBA DFS Lineup Generator, and all of the rest of our NBA DFS content and tools! Let's dive into my top plays of the night.

 

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics

O/U: 214.5

Spread: BOS -9

Philadelphia 76ers Injuries

Philadelphia 76ers NBA DFS Breakdown

The primary question of the entire day is will Joel Embiid play? Nobody has any answers to that at this point. He was listed as doubtful over the weekend but was seen participating in the morning shoot around Monday morning. Let’s play out two scenarios, one including Embiid and one without him.

With Embiid in;

If Embiid is playing, he’s obviously the top dog on this team with everyone else falling into place. James Harden is the second option offensively, Tyrese Maxey third, Tobias Harris fourth, and then everyone else after. De’Anthony Melton looked good in the final two games of the previous series, but Game 4 did not include Joel Embiid. I have no interest in anything else if Embiid plays.

With Embiid out;

If Embiid sits – and he listed as doubtful – everything changes. Paul Reed played 31 minutes in Game 4 and looked great and he put up 36.8 DKP in his absence notching 15 rebounds. He’s going to be extremely popular if Embiid’s out.

With Embiid off the floor this year, James Harden has the biggest usage bump at 5.7%, with Tyrese Maxey at 4.9%, De’Anthony Melton at 4.4%, and Tobias Harris at 4.3%. Harden averages 1.44 FP/min, Maxey’s at 1.1, and Harris at 1.05. Each of them are elite without Embiid.

Tier 1 play(s): Joel Embiid (if in), Paul Reed (if Embiid’s out), James Harden, Tyrese Maxey (if Embiid’s out), Tobias Harris (if Embiid’s out), De'Anthony Melton (if Embiid's out)

Tier 2 play(s): Tyrese Maxey (if Embiid’s in), Tobias Harris Tyrese Maxey (if Embiid’s in)

Boston Celtics Injuries

  • None

Boston Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown

To nobody’s surprise, the Celtics are running a very small rotation with six guys playing north of 30 minutes and basically two other guys playing in the teens. That’s it. Three of those guys that have the opportunity to play 30 minutes play at guard in Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, and Derrick White. I’d rank them Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White. Brogdon is the cheapest and the most talented offensive player. Smart is consistent on both sides of the ball and commands the offense extremely well while White is risky with his boom/bust nature.

It’s hard not to love both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown but Tatum has averaged 46.6 DKP/game against Philadelphia this year while Brown’s averaged just 32.8 DKP/game. Not great for Brown, Bob. Not great. I lean Tatum’s way, Brown is a tier-two play for me.

The frontcourt is interesting because Robert Williams III's minutes have fluctuated a lot in the last series. He’s played anywhere from 17 to 29 minutes and is coming off the lowest total of his first series this postseason. He’s put up 21+ DKP in three straight games and in four of six overall. Boston gave Rob Williams 31 minutes in his one meeting this year against the 76ers and think that could happen if Embiid plays here. Al Horford is fine for a final piece of your roster builds.

Tier 1 play(s): Jayson Tatum, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart

Tier 2 play(s): Jaylen Brown, Al Horford, Robert Williams III

 

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

O/U: 228.5

Spread: DEN -4
Phoenix Suns Injuries

  • None

Pheonix Suns NBA DFS Breakdown

The Suns did not look great in Game 1 and Chris Paul needs to step up in a big way. Paul was really bad in Game 1 scoring just 20.5 DKP in 32 minutes but has averaged 37.1 DKP in four meetings with Denver this season. Devin Booker was fantastic in the team’s opening series and was pretty good in Game 1 against Denver, but it just wasn’t enough. Booker’s put up 48+ DKP in five straight games and has scored 27+ points in all five of them, including 30+ in four of five.

Moving over to the wing, Kevin Durant is arguably the best player on the slate considering how good he’s been everywhere. He’s barely coming off the floor and has put up 50+ DKP in three straight games. It’s hard to trust any other Suns wing, but I’d be willing to take shots on Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie.

In the frontcourt, it’s Deandre Ayton or bust. It’s fairly simple. It’s an incredibly tough spot for him if Nikola Jokic is active offensively because Ayton is someone who can be foul-happy at times.

Tier 1 play(s): Kevin Durant, Devin Booker

Tier 2 play(s): Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig

 

Denver Nuggets Injuries

  • None

Denver Nuggets NBA DFS Breakdown

It was a great Game 1 from Denver and the difference maker was their +18 second quarter. Jamal Murray was the X-Factor, which we’ve seen from Murray in the playoffs dating back to the bubble. Murray scored 34 points, the third time this postseason he’s already put up 30+ points and he’s put up 44+ DKP in five of their six postseason games. The rest of the guard spot is interesting. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are both in play but the lean is Brown for me. He just simply does more, however. KCP is a contrarian option.

Michael Porter Jr. can really fit it up offensively at times and the Nuggets need him to do just that in this series. He just didn’t look great in Game 1 and hasn’t been overly great this postseason. Aaron Gordon has been OK this postseason too as he’s flashed a decent floor and decent upside at a sub-6K price point on DraftKings. Jeff Green and Christian Braun are final pieces and if you get to them, you’re probably going to be let down by the night’s end BUT they both have a path to 15-20 minutes per night.

It would not surprise me or anyone else if Nikola Jokic is the top scorer of the night but the question you ask yourself about it is does the 10.8K price point handicap the rest of your lineup? I have no issue with you getting to Jokic, by the way.

Tier 1 play(s): Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown

Tier 2 play(s): Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Player Pool

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