NBA DFS Breakdown April 28th


Sacramento Kings @ Golden State Warriors

O/U: 235

Spread: GSW -7.5

This series was all about who could steal a game on the road. The Warriors accomplished that on the back of Steph Curry in Game 5. They struggled on the road the ENTIRE season and finally got over that hump in the postseason. Let’s look into Game 6 and if this series stops here.

Sacramento Kings NBA DFS Breakdown

Despite having a broken finger, De’Aaron Fox played 42 minutes in Game 5 and had 24 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds. Fox has been amazing this series as he put up 50+ DKP in all five games. The Warriors have no answer for Fox and if his finger holds up like it did in Game 5, we should expect another big performance out of him in Game 6. The rest of the guards are interesting. Malik Monk has been huge for Sacramento in all but one game this series. At just $5.5K, Monk is an excellent value notching 30+ DKP in four of five games. Davion Mitchell has played a solid role in this series because of his defense but I’m not sure what his upside was. He’s in play as a value option.

The Kings wings #bars, are hard to assess on a game-to-game basis. Harrison Barnes will play 30+ minutes, but his upside has clearly been capped with De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Malik Monk clearly ahead in the pecking order. Will the fifth guy who approaches and surpasses 30 minutes be Kevin Huerter or Keegan Murray? It has been Murray in each of the last two games but it depends who’s shot is falling.

I know De’Aaron Fox has taken over the series for the Kings, but there’s no way Domantas Sabonis hasn’t let them down. He has not played great and has been in foul trouble a bunch. It’s a tough match-up against the very active Kevon Looney and Draymond Green.

Tier 1 play(s): De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk (GPPs)

Tier 2 play(s): Domantas Sabonis, Malik Monk (CASH), Kevin Huerter, Davion Mitchell

Golden State Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown

The Warriors won a road game and that was what everyone was worried they couldn’t do. They can now close out the series in Golden State during Game 6. Stephen Curry has been fantastic the past few games for the Warriors as he scored 30+ actual in three straight and four of five games. Curry’s been dominant at home in this series. Jordan Poole likely continues starting and is a good price, but if he’s not absolutely unconscious from the floor, he’s not going to close. He’ll be replaced by someone more defensive-minded. It could also very well be “Game 6 Klay Thompson” tonight. He’s been a freak at home this year averaging 24.1 points compared to 19.4 on the road and 36.4 DKP/game compared to 31.7.

I’ve loved what I’ve seen from Andrew Wiggins since returning from his long absence, especially defensively. He’s had four or more blocks/steals in three of the five games in this series and has put up 30+ DKP in all five games. Draymond Green has looked very sharp off the bench despite playing low-30’s in minutes. When he scores like he has, he has a ton of upside. With Kevon Looney on the floor, he’s asked to be more assertive scoring the ball and it’s helped him tremendously. I love Green here.

Is it possible that the Warriors MVP in the past three games, all wins, has been Kevon Looney? Looney’s topped 30 minutes in each and has two 20 rebound games along with 6+ assists in three straight. He’s been a force and has kept Domantas Sabonis in check.

Tier 1 play(s): Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Draymond Green

Tier 2 play(s): Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole

Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers

O/U: 218.5

Spread: LAL -4.5

Memphis was able to extend this to at least a sixth game as they held home court as Ja Morant and Desmond Bane put the team on their back and took it home. Memphis will need much of the same in Game 6, in Los Angeles, if they want to get this back to Memphis for a Game 7.

Memphis Grizzlies NBA DFS Breakdown

Memphis needs Ja Morant and Desmond Bane to continue to thrive in order for Memphis to extend this series. Both guys scored 30+ points in Game 5 and Bane has done so in two straight. Individually, both guys in the Memphis back-court have good match-ups. I like them both quite a bit. 

If Luke Kennard doesn’t suit up, it’s likely that the Grizzlies just rely heavily on Dillon Brooks which could really make or break their season. Brooks has been so, so bad this series, but there are times when his shot is falling and he seemingly can’t miss. I could see John Konchar approaching 20 minutes without Kennard, but if Kennard suits up, I actually like him in GPPs as a secondary value, especially if Brooks continues to miss all of his shots.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has done a good job keeping himself on the floor and out of foul trouble, for the most part, and has 38+ DKP in four of five games this series. He has back-to-back double-doubles and has 2+ blocks in four games. Xavier Tillman has been on the floor for 30+ minutes and is a wild card. He has been really good and has also been a ghost. Last piece in.

Tier 1 play(s): Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr.

Tier 2 play(s): Dillon Brooks, John Konchar (if Luke Kennard sits), Luke Kennard (if he plays), Xavier Tillman


Los Angeles Lakers NBA DFS Breakdown

The Lakers have the chance to close this series out in Los Angeles tonight and D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves are going to play big parts tonight. Reaves has been better of the two as he’s put up 37+ DKP in three games this series and Russell has done it just once. There’s also the possibility we see Dennis Schroder extended if Russell struggles so that’s a possibility as well. Reaves is my favorite guard option from the Lakers.

I love how balanced LeBron James’ game has been this series and how he’s dominated Memphis on the glass especially. He shot extremely poorly in Game 5 and expect a more assertive James in this game as he went 1-9 from three-point range #bars. LBJ in a close-out game at home is a tail as old as time. Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt’s are final pieces in a GPP build, but that’s all.

Anthony Davis has been an absolute force defensively this series but his offense has been inconsistent. If he can turn it on offensively like he did in Game 5, the Grizzlies don’t have anyone that can guard him with Xaiver Tillman very undersized.

Tier 1 play(s): LeBron James, Austin Reaves, Anthony Davis

Tier 2 play(s): D'Angelo Russell, Dennis Schroder (GPPs)

Player Pool

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