The NBA Cup is down it's final eight teams and tonight, December 9th, we have the Eastern Conference quarter finals matchups between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat and the New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors. There is some hefty injury news despite having only two games as Franz Wagner and RJ Barrett are out while Karl-Anthony Towns is questionable. Lets dive into today's breakdown.

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, December 9th

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Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 12/9

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic

  • Total: 235.5
  • Spread: ORL -1

Heat NBA DFS Breakdown

(1st in pace, 6th in DRtg)

We got a glimpse of what the Miami rotation could look like back on 12/1 with everyone healthy and on the floor. In that game, Davion Mitchell played 31 minutes and paced for 32. Mitchell, since Tyler Herro came back, is averaging 12.3 potential assists, and 8 APG. If his shot is falling, he has a solid ceiling. Tyler Herro and Norman Powell look quite similar to one another as they've posted similar USG and FP/min outputs this season. Powell is cheaper and has better eligibility. If Dru Smith plays, he'll be the backup point-guard.

Andrew Wiggins has played 82 minutes with Tyler Herro this year and he's been solid, posting a 21.4% USG and 1.02 FP/min. With a fully healthy team, Jaime Jaquez.'s minutes took a major step back, but he topped 30 minutes in each of the last two games. His range of outcomes for minutes is greater than anyone on the Heat. GPP's only for Jaquez. Probably not getting to Pelle Larsson, Simone Fontecchio, and Nikola Jovic. If I were to play one, it's probably Fontecchio, but none of them are appealing.

It's unlikely that Kel'el Ware is extended much here as the team's at full strength, but he does have a pretty high ceiling. The big man we want here is clearly Bam Adebayo. In 88 minutes with Tyler Herro this year, Bam Adebayo has absolutely cooked posting a 26.1% USG and 1.36 FP/min. I love Adebayo in this spot. Orlando allows the 11th most points in the paint.

Magic NBA DFS Breakdown

(12th in pace, 5th in DRtg)

UPDATE - Anthony Black is starting, not Tristan da Silva. Big bump down. Paolo Banchero IS on a minutes restriction still. He played 24 minutes last game.

The Magic could very well be the most appealing team on the slate and the ownership reflects it. They're very popular and they should be. They're missing Franz Wagner, and that gives everyone a bump and not to mention, Miami being first in pace doesn't hurt either. 

The guard room for Orlando is super solid and I want a piece of all of them. Jalen Suggs gets the biggest usage bump (+6.8% USG) up to 31.6% USG and is averaging 1.42 FP/min. Only a 42 minute sample, but he's been a dog without Wagner. Same thing can be said for Anthony Black who has a 25.7% USG (+3.9% USG) and 1.1 FP/min. We could see Black start but even if he doesn't, it doesn't matter. He's a fantastic option. Desmond Bane is the third Magic guard we're getting to as his 29.6% USG (+5.7% USG) and 1.1 FP/min without Wagner isn't too shabby either.

It's highly likely that Tristan da Silva draws the start for Franz Wagner and he's a solid piece. He's had a solid mid-20s minutes role when he's been in the starting lineup and there's no reason to think that doesn't continue here. It is worth mentioning, he's a .7 FP/min without Wagner while posting an 18% USG. There could be a few minutes for Jase Richardson who's played well, but I'm not sure it's enough for us to plug him into our lineups.

The rest of the Magic front court will be made up of Paolo Banchero, Jonathan Isaac, Wendell Carter, and Goga Bitadze. Banchero should be extended from 24 minutes to somewhere around 30, which could be enough if he gets going offensively. Banchero leads the team with a 32.2% USG and is second with 1.24 FP/min. Carter Jr. will start and should play around 30 minutes. He's a .85 FP/min player without Wagner this year and is going to be popular because of his price. Bitadze is interesting because he's incredibly good in fantasy posting a 1.24 FP/min. Isaac is a 1/150 lineup kind of player.

New York Knicks vs. Toronto Raptors

  • Total: 226.5
  • Spread: NYK -5

Knicks NBA DFS Breakdown

(26th in pace, 14th in DRtg)

The Knicks breakdown comes to whether or not Karl-Anthony Towns plays or not, so we're going to do two different breakdowns here. One including Towns and one excluding him. Towns DID go through practice on Monday, but head coach Mike Brown wasn't sure if he'd play or not.

Without Towns (and Miles McBride & Landry Shamet);

*last game without Towns, Ariel Hukporti played the backup five and played extremely well. With Robinson unable to really be extended, Hukporti would be in play if Towns were to sit.

With Towns IN (Miles McBride & Landry Shamet OUT);

Raptors NBA DFS Breakdown

(17th in pace, 8th in DRtg)

Update - Immanuel Quickley has been downgraded to QUEST with the same illness he played through on Sunday. He played poorly, so this is a REAL downgrade.

With Barrett & Quickley off the floor this year;

The Raptors enter this NBA Cup Quarter Final matchup against the Knicks in a little funk but has been one of the league wide surprised to start the year. They'll be playing this game without RJ Barrett and possibly Jamal Shead, who checks in as questionable.

We know who the dogs are for Toronto without Barrett and one of them is Immanuel Quickley. Without Barrett this year, IQ has a 22.9% USG (+1.7% USG) and is averaging 1.04 FP/min. He could be tasked with an even heavier workload if Jamal Shead is ruled out and his numbers increase slightly up to a 23.3% USG and 1.07 FP/min. Shead himself would be a decent value play if he's ruled in and is a player the Raptors have closed many games with since Barrett went down. If Shead sits, A.J. Lawson and Ja'Kobe Walter are the two likeliest candidates to get extended, with Walter likely getting the first crack as the starter.

With Barrett off the floor this year, Brandon Ingram has a 31% USG, which is first, and Scottie Barnes has a 26.5% USG, which is second. Barnes separates in FP/min as he's at 1.34 and Ingram's at 1.02.

The center rotation is interesting and although I still think Jakob Poeltl is largely has the edge in minutes, Sandro Mamukelashvili could carve out a solid role. He's been that productive. They split 48 minutes last time out and that was to match Boston's athleticism, but the Knicks could be that athletic too, especially if Towns plays. Without Barrett this year, Mamu has been better in USG and FP/min than Poeltl. If I were projecting their minutes split, it would probably be somewhere around 27-28 for Poeltl and 20-21 for Mamukelasvili. It could be closer, however.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

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