It's Tuesday April 14th, and we have a 2-game NBA DFS main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Happy NBA Play-in tournament day!

We have the NBA postseason kicking off on Tuesday as the first two games kick off. The Eastern Conference has it's 9-10 game as the loser of Hornets and Heat are eliminated while the Western Conference features the 7-8 seeds and the winner of Blazers and Suns wins the seventh seed. That means the likes of LaMelo Ball, Devin Booker, Deni Avdija, and Bam Adebayo will be taking the floor.

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership

NBA DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, April 14th

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Pre/Post-Lock Update Section

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

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NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/14

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

 

 

NBA DFS Game-by-Game Breakdown

Here are the core players I’m looking at for my NBA DFS picks tonight. You can see the full analysis of tonight’s NBA DFS projections and player pool below or skip ahead to building the best lineups possible by locking these into the aforementioned lineup generator now.

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets

Total: 229.5

Spread: CHA -6

Heat NBA DFS Breakdown

The Heat check in as underdogs today and it's a tough spot because of how good Charlotte's been defensively ranking seventh since the All-Star break.

The Heat were running their starters out for big minutes down stretch of the year and we should expect that again here. Davion Mitchell's minutes are very hit or miss, but I expect them to run Mitchell out there to guard LaMelo Ball as much as he can. It's 50/50 whether he or Pelle Larsson are in the game down the stretch. They're both .84 FP/min players. Tyler Herro is a 24.7% USG and 1.07 FP/min player this season.

The Heat will probably continue to bring Norman Powell off the bench but his role should be solid and hit 30. Powell has a 27.4% USG and 1.07 FP/min this year and can be a microwave scorer. If Jaime Jaquez. has it cookin' off the bench, the Heat are very willing to extend him because they use him as the primary ball-handler. Jaquez is a 1.01 FP/min player and 22.4% USG player.

Andrew Wiggins is really, really cheap at just $4,700 on DraftKings and will be one of the highest-owned plays of the day. Kel'el Ware is a GPP only play because his range of outcomes in terms of minutes is wider than any other player on this slate. He might play eight minutes and he might play 16 and he might play 28. Bam Adebayo could possibly play 40 minutes in this one. Adebayo has a 25.7% USG and 1.28 FP/min on the year.

Tier 1: Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Jaime Jaquez., Norman Powell

Tier 2: Tyler Herro, Davion Mitchell, Pelle Larsson (would play Max 1 of Larsson/Mitchell if rostering 1)

Hornets NBA DFS Breakdown

The Hornets are in a massive pace-up spot as the Heat are 5th since the All-Star break and 1st this year while the Hornets are 29th since the break. They're home favorites tonight and are in a great spot.

Near the end of the season, we saw the Hornets willing to extend LaMelo Ball for upper-30s minutes and that's what I would expect here. Removing Collin Sexton from the equation, Ball has a 32% USG and averages 1.36 FP/min. The only player on the Hornets with a higher usage over that span is Coby White as White's only 4.2K on DK. Even at 20 minutes I'm interested in White.

The wings are interesting here because they all have big-time ceilings, none higher than Brandon Miller. Miller is the priority of the three and has been the best usage guy (28.3%) and highest FP/min player of the three (1.12). Kon Knueppel can make a boatload of threes and should play mid-30s minutes. Miles Bridges is a 22.2% USG and .98 FP/min player.

I'm interested to see what Charlotte does in the front court because I think there's a realistically an opportunity we see Grant Williams backup center minutes tonight. Not sure how much they run Ryan Kalkbrenner out there against a veteran like Bam Adebayo. We know Moussa Diabate will start and should play a bunch as a .97 FP/min player. He's now sub-5K.

Tier 1: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Moussa Diabate

Tier 2: Coby White, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Grant Williams

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns

Total: 216.5

Spread: PHX -3

Trail Blazers NBA DFS Breakdown

With Jerami Grant listed as questionable, it's possible that the Trail Blazers are at full strength. The Blazers should give Jrue Holiday a boatload of minutes considering he's the most familiar with playoff success, including being an NBA champion. Holiday is a 23.7% USG and 1.08 FP/min this year. Scoot Henderson may draw another start, but his minutes are not guaranteed at all. Very risky.

Shaedon Sharpe returned a couple of games ago, but isn't likely going to play too many minutes. He hasn't played more than 17 minutes since being back. Toumani Camara is a guy going to be on the floor for 40 minutes if he can stay out of foul trouble. His price has dropped to a semi-comfortable spot.

Guys like Jerami Grant, Kris Murray, and Sidy Cissoko are unplayable and I have no idea what Matisse Thybulle's role is going to be slate-to-slate. Deni Avdija is one of the best plays of the slate because he's one of the better fantasy assets in the league.

The front court guys are interesting because the timeshare is live. Honestly, Donovan Clingan's more likely to play more, but Rob Williams – under 4K – has a lot of really elite fantasy appeal, especially because he's had plenty of playoff experience.  He's a 1.29 FP/min player this year, which is tied for the team lead with Deni Avdija.

Tier 1: Deni Avdija, Robert Williams, Jrue Holiday

Tier 2: Donovan Clingan, Toumani Camara

Suns NBA DFS Breakdown

The only injury the Suns are dealing with is Grayson Allen as he's listed questionable. We saw near the end of the year that the Suns moved Jordan Goodwin into the starting lineup over Collin Gillespie and that's something that's very possible for this play-in game. His price dropping to 3.8K while Gillespie is still 6K is ridiculous. Goodwin will be popular because of that fact.

We know Devin Booker and Jalen Green are going to play a bunch, but Booker is the priority. He's the better fantasy player and has the higher minutes ceiling. Dillon Brooks is too expensive with both Booker and Green healthy, too. I probably wouldn't play a 5.6K Allen even if he suits up because the minutes are very risky. Royce O'Neale is boring, too.

With Mark Williams back, starting, and under 5K, there aren't many better values on the board and he's being rostered as such. He has a very high fantasy ceiling but also there are times that Phoenix prefers Oso Ighodaro. Ighodaro is interesting in GPPs.

Tier 1: Devin Booker, Jordan Goodwin, Mark Williams

Tier 2: Oso Ighodaro, Jalen Green