Happy Wednesday April 30th, we have two elimination games in the NBA playoffs as the Los Angeles Lakers face elimination on their home floor against the Minnesota Timberwolves and so do the Houston Rockets against the Golden State Warriors.

The stars are out as LeBron James, Anthony Edwards, Luka Doncic, and Stephen Curry are taking the floor in their most meaningful game of the year.

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership
 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 4/30

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets

  • Total: 203.5
  • Spread: HOU -4

Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 7th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 17th

With Jimmy Butler returning, the Warriors rolled out a new starting lineup of;

Stephen Curry - Brandin Podziemski - Buddy Hield - Jimmy Butler - Draymond Green

It went well. All five starters played 30+ minutes. Quentin Post played the most minutes off the bench and Gary Payton (16 minutes) and Moses Moody (11 minutes) were the only guys that made it to double-digit minutes. The Moody minutes were the most shocking because of how good they've been with him in the lineup. Post is at least interesting if Houston continues to run double-big lineups.

Rockets NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 5th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 18th

The Rockets continue to run an eight-man rotation and are facing elimination. Fred VanVleet has played 40+ minutes in all four games in this series while Jalen Green has flashed a 60 FP ceiling while posting an 11 FP floor. The Rockets need Amen Thompson's offense like they got in Game 4 because he was really good and also please stay out of foul trouble because he couldn't in the first half.

Speaking of foul trouble, Dillon Brooks. He's been very consistent in this series, just needs to stay out of foul trouble. If he doesn't, it's likely Jabari Smith. and Tari Eason are extended a bit. Both are secondary options.

The Warriors don't have the size to stop Alperen Sengun and the Rockets realized that in Game 4. He's had two monster games in this series and has three straight double-doubles to boot. Steven Adams played a LOT of second half minutes in Game 4 and was a +16 in a game they lost. He played 26 minutes and nobody at this price has that minute upside other than he and Buddy Hield.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Lakers

  • Total: 209.5
  • Spread: LAL -5.5

Timberwolves NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 6th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 25th

The best player this postseason – up to this point – has been Anthony Edwards and it's not close. He's put up 48+ DKP in three of for and has put up 58+ in two straight. Mike Conley is going to play 21+ minutes in every game this series, but is a GPP only play, but is second fiddle to Donte DiVincenzo on the point-guard priority list.

Jaden McDaniels has been elite in three games this series and they've won in all three. Julius Randle has been an elite Robin to Anthony Edwards' Batman as he matches LeBron James' physicality. I prefer Naz Reid to Rudy Gobert if playing one of them.

Lakers NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Post All-Star Break): 17th
  • Pace (Post All-Star Break): 20th

It's been an up and down series for Luka Doncic as he's had two monster scoring games but those games haven't been attached to much else and it's hard to do with what LeBron James has been doing. If spending up on one of them I prefer James, but you'll get Doncic at lower ownership.

Austin Reaves has been underwhelming from a real basketball standpoint, but the price has dipped to a very comfortable point as he's notched 37+ DKP in two straight. Rui Hachimura might not sub out in the second half again with the team facing elimination. He's a great value. Dorian Finney-Smith likely won't start – maybe he does – but he'll play ALL the minutes in their small ball lineup.

The Lakers didn't sub in the second half of a non-elimination game, so what will they do with their backs against the wall? Do not use any of their other guys except the five mentioned above (James, Doncic, Reaves, Hachimura, Finney-Smith)

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value