We have a two-game NBA DFS main slate on Monday, May 12th, as the Boston Celtics look to tie the series at two games a piece against the Knicks on the road while the Golden State Warriors host the Minnesota Timberwolves down 2-1 in their series.

The stars are out as Anthony Edwards, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jalen Brunson, and Jimmy Butler are taking the floor in their most meaningful games of the year.

 

 

Before actually diving into the meat and potatoes, welcome to the NBA DFS season. If this is your first time reading our column on NBA DFS picks, I just want to welcome you and give you a few tips and tricks on what you should be looking for each night.

  • News outlets: reliable sources that give us injury news & starting lineups
  • Pace of play: who's playing fast vs. who's playing slow. Which teams get a pace-up spot (more possessions) vs. pace-down (fewer possessions)
  • Usage rates: is a percentage of how many plays that player is being used in
  • NBA DFS Projections
  • Lineup Generator
  • NBA Ownership
 

 

Pre/Post-Lock Update

This section will be used for anything that changes from the morning until right up to roster lock. 

Injury updates, players we’re higher on than we were in the morning and so much more.

All status updates after contest roster lock will be made in the Fantasy Alarm Discord: https://discord.gg/2yATJxXe8G

 

NBA Injuries, News & Updates Today, 5/12

 

 

NBA DFS Slate & Game Overviews

In the section below, I’m listing the most notable things we need to look at in Las Vegas, including notable O/U and spreads. Not every game is listed, but every game listed has the pace and defensive numbers listed.

Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks

  • Total: 208.5
  • Spread: BOS -6.5

Celtics NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 2nd
  • Pace (Playoffs): 15th

The Celtics cut all the fat out of their rotation in Game 3 and we should expect that in Game 4. They could possibly get Sam Hauser back, but that shouldn't make a big dent into anyone's minutes. In Game 3, the Celtics rode the hot hand with Payton Pritchard over Jrue Holiday because Pritchard simply made shots. More often that won't be case, but at least that's in the range of outcomes. Pritchard is cheaper and will be lower owned.

On the wing, Derrick White and Jaylen Brown both look great. Their price points are very cheap and both will be extremely popular because of it. Jayson Tatum being under 10K is also ALWAYS appealing. He's arguably the top spend up of the slate.

What's happening in the Celtics front court is bizarre, particularly with Kristaps Porzingis. The mystery illness has randomly returned and he's yet to play more than 19 minutes in any game this series and hasn't played more than than 22 dating back to the Orlando series. Horford made all of his shots in Game 3 after missing all of them in Game 2. As long as Zinger is limited, Horford's a great value at 5K.

Knicks NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 4th
  • Pace (Playoffs): 7th

After stealing Games 1 and 2, literally stealing them, the Knicks got flattened in Game 3, but they run such a short rotation. Jalen Brunson has an incredibly tough matchup but he's been very solid at this price point he's sitting at. I love the ownership too. He has a team-high 33% USG this postseason.

The wings all look similar, per usual, but I have a VERY hard time imagining OG Anunoby continues to be THIS much of a ghost on offense because 5.9K is too cheap. He's going to play 40 minutes and play elite defense. He has a VERY high ceiling because of his ability to play both sides of the ball. I like Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges too and nobody's playing Bridges.

Boy, the price for Karl-Anthony Towns is ridiculous. Absolutely criminal. Can he make shots and stay out of foul trouble? That's the question. The field is taking a shot on him because of the price. Mitchell Robinson's had a big role in this series playing 19+ minutes in all three games, he just hasn't made free throws and is being hacked a LOT.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors

  • Total: 200.5
  • Spread: MIN -5.5

Timberwolves NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 3rd
  • Pace (Playoffs): 11th

The Timberwolves have had the same rotation from the start of the playoffs until now. At least the same eight players. Mike Conley played a lot in Game 3 and the TWolves are 3-0 this postseason with Conley playing at least 25 minutes. Keep that in mind going into Game 4. I like his price and ownership if Conley's going to be extended again.

If Conley isn't extended, Donte DiVincenzo is the most likely candidate to get more burn and it's likely because he's finally making shots. He hasn't shot better than 40% since Game 1 of the Lakers series. Nickiel Alexander-Walker is only extended if there's foul trouble to Jaden McDaniels.

Anthony Edwards has 47+ DKP in six straight and seven of eight this postseason. He's the top spend on the slate and is probably lower owned than he should be. If Jaden McDaniels stays out of foul trouble, he'll play 40 minutes and has a very nice ceiling. We've seen it throughout the playoffs.

If you don't have the funds to get up to Edwards, you can pivot down to Julius Randle who has a triple-double and double-double in each of the last two games. Randle has a high ceiling but low floor. Unlike Edwards. I like Naz Reid, but Game 3 was a downer for all those with Reid stock in Game 4. Rudy Gobert is just not going to be that big of a factor in this series in terms of minutes although he did have a good game in Game 3.

Warriors NBA DFS Breakdown

  • DRtg (Playoffs): 7th
  • Pace (Playoffs): 9th

Without Stephen Curry, the Warriors relied on a LOT of Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga in Game 3. Both of those guys had a 28% USG or better and nobody else had higher than 20%.

Brandin Podziemski started as the de facto point-guard and played nearly 40 minutes but he has NOT been a good FP/min player without Curry at all. Just sitting at .54 FP/min. There's a legitimate chance we see Gary Payton once again play into the 20s for minutes and that makes him very appealing.

All of the Warriors value is so popular, but it allows you to do so much with your lineups. This IS a good series for Jonathan Kuminga with Stephen Curry out, so he's a good value. Buddy Hield has been 1 FP/min without Stephen Curry this postseason.

Draymond Green is one of six Warriors getting at least 35% ownership. He's a solid play IF he stays out of foul trouble, which will be dependent on Julius Randle's aggression here. Kevon Looney and Trayce Jackson-Davis will both play double-digit minutes with the former likely playing more. MME options only.

NBA DFS Core Player Pool & Lineup Picks

High

Mid

Value