After a wild few weeks tearing up superspeedways and taking on a road course, NASCAR is back to business as usual with some good old-fashioned oval racing at Phoenix Raceway. And this isn't just any short track—Phoenix is where the Cup Series crown gets decided in November. That means teams will be loading up on every bit of data they can, just in case they’re in the mix for a championship run later in the season.

Now, history says Ford tends to own this track when the stakes are high, but back in the spring of 2024, it was Christopher Bell who took the checkered flag. If Bell can pull off another win, he’d be the first to three-peat in the Next-Gen era. No pressure, right?

 

 

 

The Breakdown: What You Need to Know About Phoenix Raceway

Phoenix Raceway is a one-mile, dogleg oval with banking that ranges from a mild three degrees on the backstretch to a respectable 11 degrees in Turns 3 and 4. It’s a track that rewards precision, patience, and—let’s be honest—raw speed.

Among the drivers suiting up this Sunday, Joey Logano has had the most success here with four career wins. Meanwhile, Ryan Blaney holds the best average running position at the track (5.5). Not bad for a guy still looking for his first Phoenix victory!

 

 

 

Shriners Children’s 500 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Christopher Bell (+500 FanDuel Sportsbook)

The man is on fire. Fresh off back-to-back wins—including our sweet 12-1 cash last week at COTA—Bell is eyeing a three-peat, and Phoenix is the perfect place to make it happen. Last spring, he ranked fourth in average running position (6.3) and first in driver rating (125.1) before parking it in victory lane. Even in the fall race, when he wasn’t in the Championship 4, he still posted a 2.8 average running position and a 136.5 driver rating, finishing fifth. If you’re looking for consistency, Bell's 4.8 average finish on comparable short-flat tracks last season is about as good as it gets.

Ryan Blaney (+550, BetMGM)

Blaney has the best average finish at Phoenix (10.4) among active drivers yet somehow still hasn’t won here. He’s been a machine at this track, racking up top-five finishes in every Phoenix race since spring 2021 (except one P10 finish). After a forgettable 19th-place showing at COTA, expect a big bounce-back this weekend.

Kyle Larson (+850, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Larson has been a top-seven finisher in nine of his last 12 Phoenix starts, including seven top-fives. He won the Cup Series Championship here in 2021 during one of the most dominant seasons in NASCAR history, snagging 10 wins that year. If anyone can turn up the heat in the desert, it’s the 2021 champ.

 

 

 

Shriners Children’s 500 Mid-Range Picks

Joey Logano (+1200, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Logano has been a Phoenix powerhouse, winning twice here since 2022 and four times overall, tying Jimmie Johnson for the second-most at this track. His odds range from +900 to +1200, so locking him in before qualifying at the best number is a sharp move. Logano's secret weapon? Front-row starts. Both of his recent Phoenix wins came after he qualified up front.

Denny Hamlin (+1100, BetMGM)

Hamlin isn’t just good here—he’s one of the most consistent performers at Phoenix. Over his last 14 races, he leads all active drivers in average running position (6.8), has finished inside the top 15 in 93.3% of his laps, and has eight top-10s. That’s elite-level consistency at a track where data matters.

Chase Briscoe (+1300, BetMGM)

Briscoe shocked the world when he won here in 2022, and now he’s driving for Joe Gibbs Racing—aka the team that won this race last year with Bell. He has four top-10s in eight starts at Phoenix, and with JGR’s history of success at this track, there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the mix again.
 

 

 

Shriners Children’s 500 Long Shots

Kyle Busch (+3000, BetMGM)

Busch has won here three times with 12 top-fives and 26 top-10s in 39 career starts. The downside? He hasn’t cracked the top 20 in the last three Phoenix races. But given his solid early-season form, this is a prime buy-low opportunity.

Josh Berry (+3500, BetMGM)

Berry is in a de facto Team Penske car despite running under the Wood Brothers Racing banner, and that matters. Penske has dominated Phoenix, finishing 1-2 in last fall’s race (Logano-Blaney) and cleaning up at similar tracks like Martinsville and Gateway. If Berry can replicate his Atlanta speed, he’s got serious upset potential.

 

 

 

Shriners Children’s 500 Props

Denny Hamlin Top 5 (+150, Caesars Sportsbook)

Hamlin has been money at Phoenix. He’s posted two wins, 16 top-fives, and 22 top-10s at this track. His average starting position of 10.82 is the second-best among active drivers, and if you key in on his performance with the Next-Gen car, it improves slightly to 9.98.

Kyle Busch Top 10 (+120, Caesars Sportsbook)

Sure, Busch’s recent Phoenix results aren’t great, but with three career wins, 12 top-fives, and 26 top-10s, this bet is all about value. Given his solid start to 2025, getting him at plus money for a top 10 is too good to pass up.
 

 

 

Shriners Children's 500 Final Thoughts

Phoenix Raceway is where the cream rises to the top, and this weekend’s race should be no different. Whether you’re backing Bell for the three-peat, Blaney to finally break through, or taking a swing on a long shot like Berry, there are plenty of ways to cash in at the Shriners Children’s 500.

Let’s get to work and make some money!