Back to a real track. After weeks of chaos and cautions, we hit a 1.5-mile that actually rewards the best drivers with the best speed. Kansas has become the measuring stick for intermediate performance in the Next Gen era — and the trends are clear.

Hendrick has raw pace. Penske’s found speed again. Toyota’s inconsistent — but has upside. We’re diving into the data and smashing value across the board.
 

 

 

AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Best Bets: Winner Predictions

William Byron (+850 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Byron has been elite at these tracks all year:

  • 2nd in green flag speed at Las Vegas
  • 4th in speed at Texas
  • Runner-up at Kansas last fall

He’s finished top 10 in five of his last six at Kansas, and he’s currently leading the Cup Series in points. No, he hasn’t won here — but he’s due, and this price is flat-out wrong. Too much speed, too much consistency to ignore.

Ryan Blaney (+650 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Penske’s back. Blaney finished P3 at Texas, ran top five in speed at Vegas, and was 4th at Kansas last fall. He’s racked up eight top-10s in 20 career Kansas starts, and with teammates already in Victory Lane, he’s next in line.

He’s been in the mix at every intermediate this year — the win’s coming. This number gives us value before the books adjust.

 

 

 

AdventHealth 400 Mid-Range Picks

Christopher Bell (+1100 Caesars Sportsbook)

No driver has qualified better at Kansas. Bell has three straight poles, five top-10s in six Kansas starts in the Next Gen car, and has led laps in four of them.

He was top 10 in green flag speed at both Vegas and Texas, and while he hasn’t won since Phoenix, this track sets up well for him. Bell’s high-floor, high-ceiling. If he starts up front again, this number disappears.

Alex Bowman (+2000 BetMGM)

Bowman is Kansas cash. Since the NextGen car arrived, he’s gone 5-for-5 on top 10s with a 7.2 average finish. He led 107 laps here in 2022, nearly won in 2019, and was top 10 in speed at both Vegas and Texas this year.

Ignore last week’s wreck — the speed’s real, and at 20/1, this is one of the best outright values on the board.
 

 

 

AdventHealth 400 Longshots Picks

Josh Berry (+3000 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Josh Berry has no business being 30/1. Let’s be honest — he’s been better than half the field in top-tier equipment.

  • 4th in speed at Vegas (and won the race)
  • 5th in speed at Texas before a wreck
  • Outpaced teammates in both events

He’s never had a good run at Kansas — but he’s never had this kind of car either. He’s already shown he can capitalize when the car is close. Don’t wait for another win to buy in.

Austin Cindric (+6000 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Fresh off a last-lap win at Talladega, Cindric now heads to a track where Penske has found speed. He hasn’t posted a top 10 here yet, but has Xfinity success at Texas and just needs clean air late. The confidence boost makes him worth a dart at 60-1.

 

 

 

Advent Health 400 – Prop Bets

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish (+100 ESPN Bet)

Free money. Bowman has finished top 10 in 5 straight Kansas races, and his average finish of 7.2 matches Larson for best among active drivers in the Next Gen era. Most books have this -130. We’re grabbing it at even money.

AJ Allmendinger Top-10 Finish (+700 Bet365)

He was running P10 at Texas before pit issues and a Bubba wreck ended his day. He’s already scored two top-10s on intermediates this season, and the Kaulig speed is finally here. Sim projections have this closer to +200 — Bet365 is way off.

John Hunter Nemechek Top-10 Finish (+1400 FanDuel Sportsbook)

Let’s get spicy. JHN finished 13th here last year in worse equipment and has two Xfinity wins at Kansas, including a 154-lap clinic in 2023. He’s struggled for pure speed — but he knows how to survive chaos. At +1400? Worth a sprinkle.

 

 

 

AdventHealth 400 Final Thoughts

This is the kind of track where stats actually matter. Green-flag speed, tire management, team strategy — all of it shows up at Kansas. Byron and Blaney headline the card. Bell and Bowman bring the value. Berry and Cindric? Pure upside. And the prop board? Beautiful chaos.

Let’s cash before the All-Star break.

 

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